Kara-France vs Erceg Best Bets for UFC 305 8/17/24
- Former title contender Kai Kara-France looks to snap a two-fight losing skid.
- He’ll have to get through Aussie native Steve Erceg, who recently went the distance with the current 125lb champ, albeit with a losing result.
- UFC odds for Kara-France vs. Erceg are live at BetUS Sportsbook.
For the third time in UFC history, Perth, Australia, will host Octagon festivities on a Saturday evening, and a headline clash between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya has everyone excited for what’s to come.
Outside the UFC 305 headliner, we’re presented with a stacked lineup of talent, including a co-main flyweight battle involving two of Trans-Tasman’s own, Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg. And, of course, it wouldn’t be a fight week if we didn’t give our expert MMA and UFC betting odds analysis…
In the famous words of Bruce Buffer: ‘It’s time!’
#UFC305 WEEK IS FINALLY HERE 🔥👀
Saturday, 10 ET | ESPN+ PPV 🍿 pic.twitter.com/c1wYSQcs4O
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) August 11, 2024
Kara-France vs Erceg Fight Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, August. 17, 2024 – 06:30 p.m. ET
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
- How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
- Main Event Bout: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
- Co-Main Event Bout: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
- Moneyline Probability: Kara-France – 41.7% (+140) Erceg – 63% (-170)
Kara-France vs Erceg Betting Odds
Kara-France vs Erceg Betting Preview
Kai ‘Don’t Blink’ Kara France
Going from a top young prospect to the 31-year-old who couldn’t quite make it past the finish line shouldn’t allow us to neglect the elite talents of Kai Kara-France. Under the tutelage of the always impressive City Kickboxing gym, the New Zealander holds a 7-4 record in the UFC, but 3 of those four losses came against former title holders or contenders.
‘Don’t Blink,’ known for his ultra-fast reactionary timing and striking ability, is riding somewhat of a rough patch on paper. However, losing to Brandon Moreno, the former 125lb champ, holds no shame, and his most recent defeat to Amir Albazi was a split decision loss with a result that remains up for debate.
Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno(15-5-1) vs “Don’t Blink” Kai Kara-France(20-7)
UFC 245: Usman vs Covington
December 14th 2019
Vid Creds: @DrJonesPHD62🫡🫶🏽 pic.twitter.com/xPySJvznBm
— The Underrated MMA Tribal Chief (@MMAUnderrated) July 17, 2024
Steve Erceg: Too Much, Too Soon?
Good luck searching the MMA history books for fighters who’ve received championship opportunities after three appearances, but Steve ‘AstroBoy’ Erceg is one of the rarities, as the Australian native returns home this weekend in an attempt to remind people why he was gifted a shot at gold so early in his career.
Erceg, 29, ran through David Dvorak, Alessandro Costa, and Matt Schnell before fighting Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight strap just three months ago. Was it too much, too soon? Perhaps, but watching him push ‘The Cannibal’ to his limits shocked many onlookers, and despite coming up short, he undeniably claimed the right to call himself an elite 125-pound contender.
You can question ‘AstroBoys’ legitimacy like the moon landing, but from what we’ve seen so far, he certainly holds the credibility to sit amongst the stars. The question is, can he come out on top when fighting down under this weekend? My UFC predictions are leaning toward Yes.
Steve Erceg submission at +550 you say…#UFC305 pic.twitter.com/0QrcJbsyW9
— Maestro MMA (@mmamaestro_) August 12, 2024
Kara-France vs. Erceg: The Tale of The Tape
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Fighting Style Breakdown: Erceg vs. Kara-France
Speed kills, and that’s precisely what’s assisted Kara-France in collecting 11 of his 24 pro-career wins by knockout. In addition, that same speed has given the Kiwi an advantage in grappling situations, and as we’ve witnessed on countless occasions, he can scramble just as fast as he strikes, and forcing the opposition into a kickboxing exchange is precisely where he wants to be.
At a lower level, we’ve seen Kara-France hunt submissions and even gain top control on the ground; he’s not a one-dimensional fighter by any means. Unfortunately, those luxuries aren’t present in the top 10 flyweight rankings, and although experience sides with him this weekend, size, strength, and grappling potential do not!
Israel Adesanya’s reaction to Kai Kara France KO’ing Cody Garbrandt pic.twitter.com/HZimMyUsLl
— Best MMA Moments (@XcellentMMA) May 23, 2023
Stylistically, Erceg is a nightmare for many flyweights. He’s the height (5-foot-8) of most bantamweights, and besides the elite grappling of Pantoja, he’s effortlessly bullied the opposition in the clinch, when wrestling, and on the ground.
For good measure, Erceg packs some power in his punch, and although he’s likely the less superior striker in this co-main bout, his ability to string counter-striking combinations behind predator-like patience could force Kai to become hesitant when letting his offense go.
Astro Boy is back in action this weekend for #UFC305! 🚀
Steve Erceg steps into the Octagon on home turf in Saturday’s co-main event!
[ LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/w54YClLG2H— UFC (@ufc) August 13, 2024
Erceg vs. Kara-France Betting Trends
- Erceg has gone the distance in 3 of his 4 UFC bouts
- Kara-France has gone the distance in 7 of his 11 UFC bouts
- Kara-France has lost 3 of his previous 6 UFC fights
Erceg vs. Kara-France: UFC 305 at the Sportsbook
Despite the obvious disparity in octagon experience, Steve Erceg enters UFC 305 as a -170 betting favorite, and after Kara-France’s last performance, I’m not surprised. This sport is all about ‘what have you done for me lately,’ and to be brutally honest, watching the Kiwi allow Albazi so much success on the feet was an eye-opener last time out.
Erceg has a much longer frame and arguably an equally dangerous stand-up game as Albazi. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the local fighter impress on the feet more than anticipated, and in grappling situations, he’ll weight-bully Kai into disadvantageous positions.
The Erceg submission prop is tempting, but the UFC moneyline odds of -170 sit at a reasonable price with that added security. Both men are durable, so expecting this to go the distance isn’t a crazy thought, and that’s precisely what I believe will happen as ‘AstroBoy’ picks up his fourth UFC win in a lobsided unanimous decision victory.
Bet This Pick: Steve Erceg Moneyline (-170)
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Take A Look At These Other 2 UFC Special Articles
- UFC 305 Parlay with a Punch 8/17: Bet Erceg, Nicoll
- UFC 305 Perfect Prop Predictions: Two Totals to Help You Cash Down Under
Question of the Day
When and where is UFC 305?
UFC 305 will be hosted live from the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia, on August 17 at 6:30 PM ET.
