Knockout Incoming: Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik UFC 305 Best Bets 8/17
- Fan favorite Tai Tuivasa hopes to snap at a four-fight losing streak on Saturday, and he certainly owns the power to do so.
- Kickboxing ace Jairzinho Rozenstruik won’t be handing out free KOs, though, as the Suriname native looks to boost his 100% knockout rate in the UFC to nine!
- Knockout or bust? Find the best UFC 305 odds at America’s Favorite Sportsbook, BetUS.
Tai Tuivasa, known for drinking a beer from random shoes during celebratory moments in the octagon, is adored by UFC fans, but after four fights and no “shoey” in sight, will he finally get back to slurping alcohol with a dash of foot juice this weekend?
“Bam Bam” returns home to Australia in front of a Perth crowd, but the Aussie knockout artist with an 88% KO rate will need all the support he can get because Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s win record goes one better with all eight of his wins coming by way of knockout.
A battle of heavyweight heavy hitters is upon us, but only one man can walk out of the RAC Arena at UFC 305 as the victor. On that note, my analysis is complete, and the MMA betting odds are live, so let’s unpack the potential of these behemoths as I reveal my best UFC betting picks.
There are very few fighters in the @ufc who have the ability like Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The 3-year-old to date holds a record of 13 wins via knockout in his career. Popularly known as ‘Bigi Boy’, he currently sits at the #12 spot in the heavyweight division and has defeated some… pic.twitter.com/AwjkIPVrBk
— Jairzinho ‘BIGI BOY’ Rozenstruik (@JairRozenstruik) August 13, 2024
Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Fight Information
- Date and Time: Saturday, Aug. 17 – 06:30 p.m. ET
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
- How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
- Main Event Bout: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
- Co-Main Event Bout: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
- Moneyline Probability: Tuivasa – 35.7% (+180) Rozenstruik – 68.8% (-220)
Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Betting Odds
Bounce Back for ‘Bam Bam’?
How times have changed. Just two years back, the beloved Tai Tuivasa, whose vibrant personality and knockout potential endeared him to fans, was on top of the world. Riding a four-fight win streak, he entered UFC 271 and knocked out formidable former heavyweight title challenger Derrick Lewis. We then began pondering his potential as a future title challenger, but in the blink of an eye, two years have passed and our thoughts now question whether “Bam Bam” can hold onto his UFC contract.
Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich knocked out Tuivasa, followed by back-to-back submission losses to Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura. Celebratory shoeys are now a distant memory, and although 31 is relatively young for a heavyweight competitor, Tuivasa cannot continue losing in such devastating fashion without repercussions.
There’s always hope when 13 of 14 pro career fights have ended via KO/TKO. Unfortunately, Tuivasa hasn’t achieved this since February 2022, as doubt replaces optimism when discussing his potential.
Tuivasa fight week, ladies and gents (yes I just wanted a reason to post this) pic.twitter.com/JtC08exGrg
— Haven (@TheMMAHaven) September 4, 2023
‘Bigi Boy’ Rozenstruik is No Punching Bag
Much like his weekend opponent, Jairzinho Rozenstruik once rode a hype train straight into the elite waters of UFC’s heavyweight division. The former kickboxer didn’t begin full-time MMA until 2017, but the smaller gloves seemed to work fine as he flatlined everyone in front of him. That was until he crossed the God-like punching power of Francis Ngannou.
It’s difficult to say whether “Bigi Boy” received a reality check when Francis effortlessly knocked him out in 20 seconds because he’s been on and off ever since. He hasn’t suffered such a catastrophic drop like Tuivasa, but consistency has undoubtedly eluded him ever since.
Alternating wins and losses aren’t great, but Rozenstruik has shown consistency in one regard, and that’s his frightening level of punching power. All eight of his UFC wins to date ended via KO/TKO, including a four-round beating of an undefeated Shamil Gaziev earlier this year.
“Big fellas that know they don’t get paid by the hour share the Octagon here as beloved Australian Tai Tuivasa takes on #JairzinhoRozenstruik in one of two #UFC305 heavyweight matchups …
… [#BigiBoy] got back into the win column last time out by battering Shamil Gaziev to… pic.twitter.com/Zh55Tr7xvF
— Jairzinho ‘BIGI BOY’ Rozenstruik (@JairRozenstruik) August 12, 2024
Tuivasa: Barefoot in Las Vegas
Analyzing fighters isn’t always a black-and-white approach of fight tape, statistics and styles. Sometimes, you have to look beyond the octagon, and when Tai Tuivasa lost his fourth straight fight to Marcin Tybura, his approach to handling defeat threw some red flags up.
Speaking with Fox Sports Australia, “Bam Bam” reminisced walking into the Las Vegas night following his most recent defeat:
“Barefoot,” he said. “And still in my fight gear.”
Now, as the owner of the second-longest active losing streak below Tony Ferguson, Tuivasa left the Apex venue and ventured into the streets of Sin City with no destination in mind.
“And my head, it was everywhere,” he recalls. “I just kept saying to myself, ‘How shi* is this … how shi* is it to be a loser?’”
🧵Technical notes: UFC Fight Night Tybura vs Tuivasa 🧵
Some technical highlights from yesterday’s card ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/UvgBQEpfu2— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) March 17, 2024
Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik: Tale of The Tape
Tuivasa and Rozenstruik Skillset Analysis: Lights Out!
Grappling? Wrestling? Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu? If that’s what you’re looking for, this fight isn’t for you. Heavy leather and sheer knockout power are what Tuivasa and Rozenstruik have to offer. The question is, who holds the advantage in the striking realm?
3 years ago today, Tai Tuivasa knocked out Greg Hardypic.twitter.com/nesEjhqHzt
— MMA Mania (@mmamania) July 10, 2024
Judging the power is pointless. These brutes are evenly matched regarding knockout potential, with a staggering 26 knockout wins between them. Expecting one of the two to be on the end of a nasty KO isn’t groundbreaking news, but diving into the finer details can help us gauge who owns the greater potential of achieving victory.
Looking down the barrel at a possible fifth consecutive loss might present a desperate “Bam Bam,” and I’m not sure a desperate version of Tuivasa has the fight intelligence to outsmart a technical kickboxing ace such as Rozenstruik.
Blink and you will miss it 👀
The second fastest KO in UFC heavyweight history just went down at #UFCGreenville!
Nine seconds was all it took Jairzinho Rozenstruik 😱 pic.twitter.com/8uIAj4obos
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) June 22, 2019
Nasty low kicks and a kill shot left hook can best describe “Bigi Boy” in short, and to date, when Ngannou is the only man to drop him, some respect must be placed on his durability. Avoiding a firefight with Tai is a must because inside the pocket is where “Bam Bam” will shine, and if anyone can hurt that respectable knockdown rate, it’s this guy.
As the longer, more technical fighter, Rozenstruik will want to keep Tuivasa at range, utilize the low kicks and play the chess game until mistakes are made and openings can be capitalized on. Whether he can achieve this or not is another question.
Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Betting Trends
- Tuivasa has lost four straight fights inside the distance
- All 8 of Rozenstruik’s UFC wins were by knockout
- Tuivasa and Rozenstruik have a combined 28 pro MMA wins, 26 of which came by knockout.
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How to Bet on Tuivasa and Rozenstruik
The current UFC odds on this contest aren’t wrong for placing Rozenstruik as the favorite, but -220 in a heavyweight bout that could end with one punch from either side will present butt-clinching moments for bettors.
My heart says Tuivasa because he’s back home, desperate for victory, and knows to rush the pocket and throw balls to the wall to avoid a more technical exchange. However, my head tells me that chasing the plus-money could be foolish, and backing the smarter, more athletic knockout artist in Rozenstruik is the smart wager to make at the BetUS sportsbook.
When Tuivasa pushes the pressure and forces a dogfight, that blistering left hook of Rozenstruik will find the button and finish this contest with an early knockout. In a striking battle, I have to pick the greater kickboxer, despite the fact I’ll be cheering for “Bam Bam” to snap the losing streak.
My Best Bet: Rozenstruik by KO/TKO -160
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Question of the Day
Who is the biggest betting underdog at UFC 305?
Aged 37, with a 0-2 UFC record and years of inactivity, bookmakers have priced Alex Reyes as the largest underdog (+650) at UFC 305.
