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Is Derrick Lewis a Lock? Betting on Lewis vs. Nascimento

From UFC 301 in Rio to UFC St Louis in the Show-Me-State, we’re back in the octagon again this weekend, and the heavyweight division tops the night’s festivities.

Derrick Lewis enters as a BetUS sportsbook favorite against Rodrigo Nascimento, but join us today for a deeper dive into the UFC Missouri card, including the ultimate best UFC bet to cash in this weekend.

Is Derrick Lewis a Lock? Betting on Lewis vs. Nascimento
Derrick Lewis | Chris Gardner/Getty Images/AFP

UFC St Louis Event Information

  • Date/Time: Saturday, May. 11, 2024 – 04:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Enterprise Center, St Louis, MO
  • How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
  • Main Event Bout: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev


Lewis vs. Nascimento Odds


Derrick Lewis: Fear “The Black Beast”

Prepare to witness the power of one of Texas’ most beloved fighters, Derrick Lewis. His MMA legacy is built on the unfathomable fight-ending power he possesses in his fists. With 18 wins from 28 UFC bouts dating back to 2014, he’s a force to be reckoned with, collecting 14 highlight reel KOs alone, not to mention the other eight he’s earned on the regional scene.

Is he uber-technical, perfectly precise, and the best example of a mixed martial artist? No, he certainly isn’t, but the savage style, brutal knockout potential, and comical personality of “The Black Beast” are why we continue tuning in to watch him fight, no matter how poor his recent record may seem.

Here’s a look at some UFC 301 odds to consider!

Rodrigo Nascimento: The Betting Underdog

Despite being just 31 years old with an 11-1 professional record, three consecutive wins in the UFC octagon, and a BJJ black that threatens a submission at any moment, Brazil’s Rodrigo Nascimento still enters St Louis this weekend as the betting underdog.

Experience is obviously a factor, and squeaking by decision wins over the likes of Taner Boser, Ilir Latifi, and Don’Tale Mayes hasn’t posed much of a threat. However, in his first main event, “Ze Colmeia” will enter the biggest fight of his pro career, and a dominant performance over Lewis would propel his name right into the mix of future title contenders.



Nascimento Called for a Top-15 Opponent

Following his most recent win over Don’Tale Mayes, Nascimento knew he wanted a top-15-ranked opponent, but he didn’t realize a main event position would be his placement at UFC St Louis.

“It’s crazy because I think about [the main event] and talk to my head coach and say, ‘My event doesn’t have a main event yet; maybe Edson [Barboza] can be there to be a main event? It would be good if we fight the same day,’” he said during an interview with UFC.com. “I never imagined the UFC would allow me to be the main event.”


Lewis vs. Nascimento: The Tale of The Tape

Pro Record (Win/Loss)
22 KOs, 1 Submission 
2 KOs, 6 Submissions
Avg Fight Time 
Knockdown Avg (15 min)
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min
Takedown Avg (15 min)
Win/Loss (Last 5)


Lewis’ Power vs. Nascimento’s Ground Game – Who Wins?

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist or world-renowned coach to study Derrick Lewis and understand the game plan. Whether he rushes in with a flying knee like he did versus Rogerio de Lima or drops a few rounds and claws his way back to victory, “The Black Beast” is coming to knock the opposition’s head off.

As one of the heaviest hitters boasting more knockouts (14) than any other fighter in UFC history, those standing opposite Lewis have already lost the mental game. He’s a scary dude, and for what he lacks in technical prowess, it’s certainly made up with an ability to end a fight in any round and at any point.

We’ve watched Lewis struggle in grappling situations versus elite opposition, but for the most part, he’s displayed sprawl-and-brawl tactics as well as unconventional get-ups. When he’s compromised on the ground, he doesn’t need hooks or scrambling abilities; the man returns to his feet via sheer strength.

Nascimento has struggled to establish himself as a feared heavyweight despite a positive 4-1-1 UFC record to date. His striking offensive isn’t great, and watching him struggle to dominate low-level opposition clearly presents a heavyweight that still has much to work on.

Grappling is Nascimento’s forte, but he doesn’t have the wrestling chops to find control and dictate fights as a ground specialist easily. He’ll grind opponents on the cage, but this can often return with lethargic striking exchanges when the position is broken, which should be a huge red flag versus the heavy-hitting Lewis.

Bet on UFC and secure the top UFC odds tonight!

  • Lewis owns the record for most knockouts in UFC history (14)
  • Lewis’ four most recent UFC wins came by knockout
  • Nascimento lost his UFC debut via KO/TKO
  • Nascimento has won two of his previous three bouts via split decision

Take A Look At These Other 2 Boxing Special Articles

Nascimento vs. Lewis at the Sportsbook

Betting lines on Lewis are giving Nascimento some respect, but after watching one of the best heavyweight grapplers, Jailton Almedia, fail to finish Lewis last time out, I don’t envision the underdog having much success.

As previously mentioned, you need to be elite in grounded positions, much like Almedia, to prevent Lewis from returning to his feet. He doesn’t have the wrestling offense to achieve this, and while Lewis’s cardio isn’t something to run home about, the knockout potential is always present through all five rounds.

Almeida has had too many close fights with mediocre opposition, and he’s also looked frail at times, even in the contests he’s won. With a mere 33% takedown rate in the UFC thus far and only two takedowns being his maximum in one fight, “The Black Beast” will find enough time on the feet to return to the win column this weekend with yet another highlight-reel beating.

My Best Bet: Lewis Moneyline (-161)



Question Of The Day

How many knockouts does Derick Lewis have?

With 14 KOs, Derrick Lewis owns the record for most knockouts in UFC history.

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