UFC fans and bettors alike are looking forward to Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell, which should deliver fireworks at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday.
Mitchell is 14-1 and one of the promising featherweights in the UFC, but he could meet his match against the experienced Barboza, who has power in his hands.
Betting online markets have Mitchell favored to win at -155, so there is value available for the main card fight, which goes off before the main event between Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal.
‘Thug Nasty’ Using Interesting Tactics
There is an image surrounding Bryce Mitchell that he’s not very smart, but he’s well aware of this and plans to use it to his advantage.
The favorite hasn’t fought since 2020 when scoring a decision win over Andre Fili, but he has shown good skills throughout his career.
He is adopting an “act stupid” game plan, which contradicts what most fighters want to portray inside the octagon.
“I’m giving away all my secrets, brother. Let me tell you this. … If you’re in any type of negotiation or something, some type of altercation, act stupid,” Mitchell told MMA News. “Don’t be the guy that acts smart; be the guy that acts stupid, like you kinda don’t know what’s going on and you’re kinda just — act slow, act stupid, even talk slow.
“So don’t try to out-smart somebody, out-stupid them.”
Mitchell can be reckless at times but the 14-1 fighter has lost only once, so he’s more calculated than he gets credit for. Most of his wins have come by decision, so he can go the full three rounds and outlast his opponents.
Our concern is his lack of finishing ability. He’s fighting Barboza, who is known to end fights before the final hooter, which could give Mitchell some problems.
UFC betting odds has Mitchell at dangerously low odds of -170, which could be too short to consider a value price.
Barboza Brings Experience Edge
Barboza demands respect at 22-10. He has fought and beaten many of the UFC’s top featherweights.
The Brazilian lost to Giga Chikadze in August, but he looked better when knocking out Shane Burgos at UFC 262.
He has fought the likes of Justin Gaethje, Dan Hooker, Kevin Lee and Khabib Nurmagomedov, so he has been competing against the very best in the business, which is why we rate him highly.
He won’t have any fears about facing Mitchell, especially given his lack of knockout power, so Barboza should come out swinging.
“You never know what’s going to happen in the fight. But the one thing I know, I’m ready. I’m going to be ready to kick, punch, wrestle, jujitsu, everything, man. I feel better than ever. And that’s mixed martial arts. You never know what’s going to happen,” Barboza said.
The sportsbook has Barboza at +140 and that price can’t be overlooked. He has won at value odds before, so bettors should be confident in his chances.
Barboza vs Mitchell Betting Pick
We’re happy to take the value odds with Barboza, who we priced around +100 to beat Mitchell.
There is little doubt that Mitchell is a quality fighter on the rise, but he might get a reality check against the experienced Barboza, who has fought the biggest names in the division.
Barboza has more power in his hands and we’re making a case for a knockout win. The +140 is well worth taking as one of our UFC best bets, but picking Barboza to win by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission pays +250, so it’s worth having on your ticket.
For more value, take Barboza to win in Round Two at +900, for those who love the riskier wager.