Michael Chiesa and Sean Brady is the featured co-main event on the Ketlen Vieira vs Miesha Tate UFC card on Saturday.
It’s an intriguing fight between the proven Chiesa, who has fought some of the biggest names in the business, and Brady, who is the new submission specialist on the scene.
UFC betting has Brady as the short favorite to extend his winning streak to an unbeaten 15-0 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Live or Die by Submission
Michael Chiesa is a supremely talented fighter. He owns an 18-5 record and has beaten the likes of Neil Magny, Rafael dos Anjos and Beneil Dariush. However, he has a flaw that could be seized upon by Brady.
Despite owning submission wins over Dariush and Carlos Condit, he’s vulnerable to tapping out. Chiesa has been submitted by Vicente Luque, Anthony Pettis and Kevin Lee, and he now faces a submission specialist.
That’s our biggest worry for the +130 sportsbook underdog, who had his four-fight win streak ended by a Round 1 submission against Luque in August. He’s back in the Octagon after only three months, so he wants to right the wrongs.
— Sike Chiesa 💚 (@SikeChiesa) November 15, 2021
The 33-year-old Chiesa is an aggressive fighter, but he went five rounds with Neil Magny, which holds him in good stead. It’s only a three-round fight, but he can win this fight on points if he’s able to avoid the pressure from Brady.
He was embarrassed after his loss to Luque, but still believes with a couple more wins, he’s back in title contention.
“To say I’m embarrassed is an understatement,” Chiesa told MMAFighting.com. “Physically I was in the best shape of my life. Mentally, I was battling myself every single day. I put too much pressure on myself this fight and I cracked.
“Historically throughout my career, every time I have faced adversity and came up short, I’ve turned around and grown tremendously. A couple more wins and I’ll be back in the mix.”
He might be an underdog, but Chiesa is a dangerous fighter who could land the big blow.
Brady Yet to Suffer Defeat
There are many exciting fighters in the UFC and Sean Brady is one of them.
He’s not yet a household name, but the Philadelphia native is 14-0 and ready to make a statement with a win over Chiesa.
His third-round submission win over Jake Matthews was top class and in his three UFC fights, he hasn’t looked tested.
Brady is currently outside the top 10 in the welterweight division, but a win over Chiesa should see him break through. He could be a title shot contender with a couple more wins under his belt, and his jiu-jitsu is a primary reason for that.
Trained by Daniel Gracie, the black belt knows just about every submission maneuver available. Opponents can’t rest at any stage because Brady is always looking to get the fight to the ground.
When winning the Fury FC Welterweight belt in 2019, he ended the fight with a TKO (punches). He also has a spinning backfist victory on his record, so he’s must-see television.
Betting online markets have Brady at -160 to win, so he has the respect of bookmakers.
Chiesa vs Brady Pick
We have placed many a wager on Chiesa in the past, but our money is firmly going with Brady.
He is one of our UFC best bets for the card and he’s one of the better all-round fighters on the UFC Fight Night roster.
Brady will be looking to feel out his opponent in the early stages before taking it to the ground. Chiesa has knowledge of submission techniques, but when he swings wildly, he leaves himself open for an arm-bar or triangle.
We expect one of those two methods to be used for Brady’s victory.