Irene Aldana looks to follow in the footsteps of her teammate, Alexa Grasso, as she challenges another dominant champion in Amanda Nunes. The UFC lines favor Nunes, who dismantled Julianna Pena to win back her belt in 2022. But while the odds are squarely on Nunes, the public feels otherwise: heavy betting action is on the challenger. Could she pull off another monumental upset?
Aldana Popular UFC Bet Online
Aldana opened as a +350 underdog but has since been bet down to +250. Those betting online have plenty of faith in the Team Lobo fighter, who has been a longtime training partner and friends with new champion Alexa Grasso. If success is infectious, then Grasso’s upset of Valentina Shevchenko could rub off on the challenger.
That’s what Aldana’s backers are expecting. One does not simply bet against Nunes, who has numerous UFC records, including the most wins (15, tied with Jessica Andrade) by a woman in the promotion. But Aldana is no slouch herself. She’s a sharp boxer who can hit with power.
— UFC Brasil (@UFCBrasil) June 7, 2023
Aldana lands nearly 5.4 significant strikes per minute at a 39% clip. She’s also scored a knockout win in three of her last four fights. As for her wrestling, she’s defended over 81% of her opponents’ takedown attempts. Her last two losses came against a former champion and a title challenger. But while she showed weaknesses that Nunes can exploit, Aldana also has the offense to make shocking UFC news.
Does Nunes Still Have It?
As far as she’s concerned, Nunes is the best female fighter on the planet. Sure, Pena did beat her. But it was more so that Nunes ran out of gas and got submitted. When she re-dedicated herself, she embarrassed Pena in the rematch. If this Nunes shows up, she can beat any fighter on the planet.
But there are fair concerns about the champ. For one, she can struggle to cut weight to 135 lbs. The weight cut was partly to blame for her poor performance in her loss to Pena. Secondly, she’s focused her training camp in a smaller gym and outside of American Top Team. Thirdly, Nunes has often talked of her motherhood and life after fighting.
Most of these are red flags, hence why there are many bets online against her. Nunes has nothing left to prove. Her spot in the UFC Hall of Fame is set in stone. But if she’s still got that drive to compete, she should be the right UFC pick.
Nunes vs Aldana Head-to-Head
Nunes and Aldana are similar physically. Both are 35 years old and strike in the orthodox stance. One inch separates them in height and reach. Aldana is taller, but Nunes has longer arms.
Nunes vs Aldana Fight Information
- Fighters: Nunes (C) (22-5-0) vs Aldana (14-6-0)
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC
- Day/Time: Saturday, June 10, 3 p.m. ET
- Nunes vs Aldana Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
Nunes vs Aldana Betting Lines
Nunes vs Aldana Picks and Prediction
We can’t blame fans for taking a shot on Aldana. If Nunes is less than 100% in this fight, Aldana could outperform her. But Nunes has the better all-around style. She can mix it up and exploit Aldana’s wrestling weakness. Holly Holm, a kickboxer, took Aldana down five times. And if Nunes is winning, she will do it methodically, so the total’s over 2.5 rounds is the best UFC bet here.
Nunes is listed at -350 in our Vegas UFC 289 lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Nunes you have a chance to win $29. The Aldana is +250 offering a chance to win $250 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Nunes a 77.78% chance to win, with Aldana at 28.57%.