Said Nurmagomedov may have no relation to former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov but he’s still one of the better bantamweights. He enters as a favorite against a fellow surging prospect in Jonathan Martinez. The UFC lines expect Nurmagomedov to win his fifth straight fight. But Martinez is a tough customer and will make this fight a long and difficult one.
Fighting To Be the Best Nurmagomedov
Khabib Nurmagomedov’s retirement has parallels with the Death of Superman in comics: a slew of Supermen came out of the woodwork to assert themselves as the Superman. Now in MMA, Said Nurmagomedov is competing with the likes of Usman Nurmagomedov and Umar Nurmagomedov for the prestigious name.
Nurmagomedov lost his unbeaten record to Raoni Barcelos (who Umar knocked out) but has rattled off four dominant victories in response. He’s not as potent a wrestler as the others but he is the most spectacular striker. He’s solid enough to dispatch of any unranked opponent. His true test comes against the top 10 contenders.
– Spinning body shot
– Head kick
– Swarming punches to end🇷🇺 Said Nurmagomedov can create a combo like few others. pic.twitter.com/dLh792nTyu
— UFC (@ufc) October 13, 2020
Martinez is close to that test. Most UFC picks are on Nurmagomedov to pass this with flying colors. Nurmagomedov can utilize his dynamic striking to whittle Martinez down. He struggles to get the fight to the mat. But he is crafty enough to exploit Martinez’s weaknesses on the mat. If he can finish this fight quickly, as the Las Vegas UFC odds don’t expect, it will be an even bigger statement.
Martinez Will Bang From Anywhere
As flashy as Nurmagomedov can get on his feet, Martinez may be the better striker. This is the guy who leg-kicked Cub Swanson to oblivion and flying-kneed Frankie Saenz. Eight of his 17 wins have come via knockout. And most importantly, he is an active fighter.
Martinez has fought 11 times since he debuted for the UFC in late 2018. He went 3-0 in 2022 and is used to fighting in Vegas. If he can keep this fight standing, he should be more than a match for Nurmagomedov. At his current price, Martinez should garner a few underdog bets online.
The grappling is an area that Martinez must answer. He has a 70 percent takedown defense on the UFC stats but he has not exactly fought many wrestlers outside of Saenz. Pingyan Liu and Andre Soukhamthath took him down three times each and they are strikers. If the fight stays on its feet, Martinez will do work.
Nurmagomedov vs Martinez Head-to-Head
Nurmagomedov and Martinez are both 5-foot-8 with similar reach (70 inches). Martinez is two years younger than Nurmagomedov. The favorite switches his stance while Martinez strikes in southpaw.
Nurmagomedov vs Martinez Fight Information
- Fighters: Nurmagomedov (17-2-0) vs Martinez (17-4-0)
- Location: The Theater at Virgin Hotels, Las Vegas, NV
- Day/Time: Saturday, March 11, 6 p.m. ET
- Nurmagomedov vs Martinez Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
Nurmagomedov vs Martinez Betting Lines
Nurmagomedov vs Martinez Picks and Prediction
Given the current lines, it’s clear that Nurmagomedov is being overestimated thanks to his name. The UFC news eat up having “Nurmagomedov” anywhere on a fight card as do oddsmakers who can juice up his numbers. Given the prices, Martinez should be the bet.
The favorite also has a measly nine percent takedown accuracy (2-of-21) so Martinez can outstrike Nurmagomedov and cash as the best UFC bet this evening.
Nurmagomedov is listed at -260 in our Vegas UFC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Nurmagomedov, you have a chance to win $38. Martinez is +200, offering a chance to win $200 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Nurmagomedov a 72.22% chance to win, with Martinez at 33.33%.
