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Octagon Violence in Pereira-Potieria Clash, Who’s the Value Bet?

After the conclusion of UFC Vegas 91, our attention now shifts to the next UFC pay-per-view event, UFC 301. This event is scheduled for Saturday, May 4, at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

To no surprise, this UFC Fight Card is brimming with Brazilian talent, and today’s hit piece will focus on the always-entertaining Michel Pereira as he gears up to face Ihor Potieria in a middleweight bout that’s expected to bring the violence! Click here to view real time UFC betting odds.

Octagon Violence in Pereira-Potieria Clash, Who’s the Value Bet?
Michel Pereira of Brazil-Megan Briggs/Getty Images/AFP

UFC 301 Event Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, May. 4, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Jeunesse Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  • How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
  • Main Event Bout: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria
  • Moneyline Probability: Pereira – 86.7% (-650) Potieria – 19% (+425)


Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria


Michel Pereira, the Octagon Entertainer

If you ever thought that theatrics and MMA didn’t go well together, then let me introduce you to Michel Pereira. This flamboyant Brazilian has been involved in so many wild in-cage moments that you can find highlight reels of his stunts alone. Whether it’s cartwheels, backflips, spin kicks, or self-created offense, the man makes combat sports look like a Bruce Lee flick.

While he’s toned the craziness down in recent years, it’s most important to point out that Pereira is a damn good fighter. He’s only 30 years old with 41 pro bouts to his name, including a seven-fight win streak and back-to-back stoppages as he enters Rio this weekend.

Pereira and Potieria in a Dance-Off?

If the entertainment factor of Pereira’s ring walks and in-octagon moves aren’t enough, how about his UFC 301 opponent, Ihor Potieria, who delivered one of the slickest post-fight celebratory dance moves when he was last in Brazil and defeated the legendary ‘Shogun’ Rua.

I’m unsure if we should prepare for a fight or a dance-off this weekend, but we must pay our respects to the Ukrainian, as he stepped up on short notice to fight Pereira and replace Makhmud Muradov.


What Potieria Said: Overcoming Mental Health

During an interview with Cageside Press ahead of UFC 301, Potieria discussed overcoming mental health issues regarding the Ukrainian war:

I don’t think about the fight. I think what happened to my country because, like I said, a lot of people, a lot of my friends, died. I wake up and I cry.

Now everything changed in my mind. I’m much stronger inside. The most important thing of all of the fighters (is) to be strong inside.”

Pereira vs Potieria: The Tale of The Tape

Pro Record (Win/Loss)
11 KOs, 7 Submissions 
9 KOs, 7 Submissions
Win/Loss (Last 5)


Pereira and Potieria Tape Study

Even through his two UFC losses, Pereira has never been beaten per se. An unfortunate DQ against Diego Sanchez holds no weight, and the Tristan Connerly defeat was a short-notice trip to Canada without preparation or even a team of coaches behind him.

Since then, however, Pereira has gone undefeated and, honestly, without the consistent wildness in the octagon, has seemingly matured. He’s an excellent wrestler; he’s Brazilian, so naturally, he knows how to grapple; most notably, the evolution in his game has seen a pacing we never knew he had.

Aged 30, with the pro experience of a 40-year-old, he’s still young. Although his success at 170 lbs was commendable, dare I say, he looks perfect at 185 lbs, with back-to-back stoppage wins in the division thus far.

Potieria missed weight in his last bout, and now he’s forced to make a two-week turnaround versus a dangerous opponent. Not to mention, a 2-3 UFC record hasn’t been the greatest, and his willingness to fight in the pocket, with a stand-and-bang style, doesn’t always end well.

For the most part, Potieria has barely survived beyond the midway point of the second round. He’s all in or all out, and yes, he’s still young with room for improvement, but he’s failed to display an ounce of evolution since his UFC debut.

UFC 301 Betting Perspective

With all three UFC losses arriving by KO/TKO, I’m not surprised that UFC odds are displaying Potieria as the joint biggest underdog on the UFC 301 fight card. The levels of competition between these two are incomparable, current trajectories are almost opposite, and the middleweight version of Pereira has been a killer with consecutive round-one victories to date.

The problem we stumble across is an attempt at finding value. Today, we’re forced to take some juice, but the Pereira KO/TKO and submission prop is still much better than the -650 moneyline. In addition, and for my value hunters, a stab on the under 1½ rounds at -150 has a great chance of cashing based on Potieria’s adrenaline dump that we’ve seen all too often.


My Best UFC Bet: 


My Value Bet: Under 1 ½ Rounds (-150)


Pereira vs. Potieria Betting Trends

  • Potieria has gone the distance in just one of his previous eight bouts
  • Potieria has lost by KO/TKO in 100% of his UFC losses (3)
  • Potieria has seen under 1 ½ rounds in four of his previous six bouts
  • Pereira has won 18 pro bouts via KO/TKO or submission
  • Pereira has won 100% of his middleweight bouts (2) in round one



Questions Of The Day

Where can I watch UFC 301?

The early preliminary card for UFC 301 will be streamed on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+, while the normal prelim bouts can be watched on ESPN2 before the main card PPV broadcasts exclusively on ESPN+.

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