Everything Left in the Octagon
UFC fans know that when Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje are involved in a fight, it’s going to produce fireworks.
We’re expecting a potential fight of the Year performance over five rounds on Saturday as Oliveira defends his UFC lightweight championship belt against tough Arizona native Gaethje.
UFC odds have the champion at -175, but beating 23-3 Gaethje is easier said than done.
Let’s check the latest news, stats, injury reports, and UFC odds for Oliveira vs Gaethje. We’ve plenty of UFC predictions for you to consider.
The Streak Continues
Despite being the champion, we feel as though Charles Oliveira doesn’t get the respect he deserves.
The 32-year-old Brazillian hasn’t lost since Paul Felder knocked him out at UFC 218 in 2017. Fast forward to UFC 274 and Oliveira is riding a 10-fight winning streak.
It’s one of the most impressive feats in all of sport, so you’d expect to see the champion around the -250 mark; however, bettors typically get value at the sportsbook for fighters coming up against Justin Gaethje.
Oliveira is the more technical fighter, compared to the wild brutality of Gaethje, but he’s prepared to exchange blows in what could be an early contender for Fight of the Year.
“In all the times I’ve fought, I’ve never despaired of taking someone to the ground,” Oliveira told BloodyElbow.com.
“I’m an MMA fighter. I’m a complete fighter. The fight will start standing. I’ll exchange blows with the guy. When there is an opportunity to take it to the ground, I will try to take it to the ground. When there’s an opportunity to stand on the grid and wrestle, I’ll wrestle with him. I train wrestling too. I’m not a fool. I’m not.”
He’s the complete package and Gaethje will need to fight smart to dethrone the champion.
Will Wild Win?
Being wild and reckless in the Octagon can have its advantages. For Justin Gaethje, his 23-3 record suggests it has worked in his favor.
When the title has been on the line, the 33-year-old hasn’t always delivered.
His three losses came to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Dustin Poirier, and Eddie Alvarez, so he hasn’t been dodging the UFC’s best fighters, but he has fallen victim to going too hard, too early at times.
We don’t think throwing wild punches will get it done against a smart fighter in Oliveira, so Gaethje will need to adjust his mindset and go into this fight with the title in mind.
It’s a five-round fight, so stamina is crucial. We expect him to pick his spots and attack Oliveira when his guard is down.
Bettors could see value in his UFC betting odds of +140. It’s a fair price for a fighter with only three losses on his record, but bettors have been burned by Gaethje in the biggest of situations.
He has been trash-talking this year, which might not be the smartest move.
“He is not the best in this weight class. I can promise you that. He still has quit, and it’s not even very deep down inside of him,” Gaethje said.
The ability to win the UFC lightweight title is there for Gaethje. He gets another chance to prove himself, but it’ll need to be the fight of his life.
Oliveira vs Gaethje Head-to-Head
It’s the first meeting between Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje.
Oliveira vs Gaethje Fight Information
- Fight: Oliveira (32-8) vs Gaethje (23-3)
- Location: Footprint Center
- Day/Time: Saturday, May 7, 6:00 p.m. ET
- Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Oliveira vs Gaethje Betting Lines
Oliveira vs Gaethje Prediction
There is the temptation to bet on Justin Gaethje at underdog odds, but we can’t look past Charles Oliveira.
He is paying generous odds for someone who hasn’t lost in five years and we’re confident of his chances.
The -170 is worth adding in UFC parlays and we would also add over 1½ rounds into our selections. It’s a low line for a five-round fight, so we’ll take the -190 available.
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