Paul Craig vs Bo Nickal UFC Picks: Bet Nickal to Win by KO/TKO 11/16

The countdown to UFC 309 has almost reached its conclusion. Although the brightest shining spotlights are positioned on Jon Jones, Stipe Miocic, Charles Oliviera, and Michael Chandler – before those top-of-the-card bangers take place, Madison Square Garden gets the pleasure of witnessing a returning prospect Bo Nickal’s attempt to continue his unbeaten streak and keep the hype train steaming.

With the “Bearjew” Paul Craig entering MSG this weekend as the biggest betting underdog, does the Scotsman stand a chance of walking out victorious versus the UFC’s middleweight golden boy?

That’s a question I’ll answer with my complete breakdown and analysis of Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig below; you can happily place yourself in a comfortable betting position knowing that I’ve tirelessly studied the most probable outcomes to create the perfect UFC expert picks.

We’ve got our eyes on this matchup 👀 Learn more about the middleweight fight between Bo Nickal (@NoBickal) and Paul Craig (@PaulCraig) at #UFC309 ➡️ https://t.co/WcMyNG9Ixwhttps://t.co/WcMyNG9Ixw

— UFC News (@UFCNews) November 13, 2024

UFC 309 Event Information

• Date & Time: Saturday, November. 16, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Madison Square Garden
• UFC 309 Event Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic
• Co-Main Event Bout: Michael Chandler vs Charles Oliveira
• Moneyline Probability: Jones – 87.5% (-700) Miocic – 18.2% (+450)

Paul Craig vs Bo Nickal Betting Preview

Bo Nickal Hype Train

When it comes to collegiate wrestling, Bo Nickal retired with a 120-3 record and three NCAA D-1 championship wins. As a freestyle/folkstyle wrestler in the UFC, hands down, no one can match his prowess.

Transitioning to pro-MMA with such an elite background in wrestling handed Bo an advantage that he’s undoubtedly taken advantage of thus far. He’s used an authoritative ground to submit four of his six opponents to date. At the same time, the other two suffered KO/TKO losses, giving the Colorado native a 100% finish to kickstart a perfect mixed martial arts career.

Combine Bo’s wrestling credentials and MMA success to date, and you have one of the fastest-rising hype trains since Khamzat Chimaev. MMA betting fans have seen the UFC invest in Bo like no other, as all three of his appearances in the octagon have been main card pay-per-view event bouts. With Jon Jones and Bo Nickal on the same card, one would say Dana White is living out a fantasy, but hold the oil, Mr. White, because your newest rising star has much to prove first.

Bo Nickal is considered one of the greatest Nittany Lion wrestlers in school history 👏 #UFC309

🏆 3x NCAA D-1 National Championships
🏆 2x Schalles Award winner
🏆 2019 Dan Hodge Trophy winner pic.twitter.com/oreJ47bFqi

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 11, 2024

UFC Betting Fans: Bet $200 & Get a $450 Bonus on your first time deposit!

Is the Bearjew Actually a Lamb?

Four losses in his five most recent UFC appearances don’t exactly present a fighter that’ll cause UFC fans to rush and buy this weekend’s pay-per-view. The “Bearjew” isn’t a grizzly; he’s a lamb to the slaughter this weekend, as the promotion is evidently protecting their star from stiff competition.

You can’t blame them, really. Craig, aged 36, is fighting at the back end of his career and does have a half-decent resume (despite the losses) and a name big enough to give Bo some credibility should he dominate as he has so far. Just like Caio Borralho and Brendan Allen before him, Craig’s being used as a stepping stone for up-and-coming talent with a one-dimensional skill set that isn’t likely to derail any of the UFC’s star-building plans.

BO NICKAL FIGHT WEEK 👊pic.twitter.com/u9MrFXON6A

— WrestlersGrind (@_wrestlersgrind) November 12, 2024

Craig vs Nickal: The Tale of The Tape

Make sure to check the latest UFC news before placing your bets.

Craig vs Nickal: Skillset Analysis

To Wrestle or Not to Wrestle

BetUS Sportsbook’s odds tell you everything you need to know about this fight. Bo Nickal will dominate. However, there’s still a level of intrigue about whether or not Bo will opt for a wrestling offensive game plan or whether he’ll keep this one standing. Based on his career to date, you’d assume the former, but given that Craig’s only path to victory would be by submission, the latter outcome wouldn’t be surprising.

Bo isn’t a wrestler anymore, and for him to stand a chance of victory versus the likes of Borralho, Sean Strickland, Chimaev, and Dricus Du Plessis, he must collect more cage time in striking situations. Going against Craig’s mediocre kickboxing skills would be the perfect scenario if there was an opportunity to do this.

Craig isn’t lost on the feet, but his greatest path to victory in this contest is through a sneaky submission. When you have a wrestler looking for takedowns, those opportunities for scrambles and submissions become more obtainable.

As mentioned, Bo isn’t a wrestler anymore, and this was evident during his scrap with Val Woodburn. He willingly exchanged strikes and threw a bunch of meat hooks and uppercuts before claiming his first and only UFC knockout, and I envision a similar scenario playing out versus the slow and plodding Craig.

Bo Nickal absolutely starched Val Woodburn. Uppercut from Hades 🥊 pic.twitter.com/sSA3W4yYjH

— Liam Picks Fights (@LiamPicksFights) November 7, 2024

Craig vs Nickal Betting Trends

These are four betting trends to consider when making the best UFC picks for this fight:

• Bo Nickal has won all six of his pro-MMA bouts inside the distance
• Craig has been finished by KO/TKO in 5 of his UFC bouts
• 7 of Craig’s 8 UFC losses were inside the distance
• Craig has lost back-to-back UFC fights

Paul Craig vs Bo Nickal UFC Betting Prediction

You’ve not arrived at this point to receive advice on picking a -1200 UFC odds moneyline, any donut could tell you that. If you want betting value on Bo Nickal, the KO/TKO is screaming out to me, and at -150, that’s a 950-point jump from the ML, which isn’t bad at all.

Yes, there is a world where Bo, like he often does, shoots the takedown and snatches a chokehold. The wise game plan from American Top Team wouldn’t allow Craig to have moments like this to attack his jiu-jitsu, though, and Bo is such an athlete that finishing Craig by KO/TKO feels like a viable betting position to put ourselves in.

Bo Nickal, who is absolutely obsessed with betting odds, has no idea how they work pic.twitter.com/BVEeJBLtvr

— Casual MMA (@CasualMMAinc) November 11, 2024

Bet This Pick: Bo Nickal by KO/TKO (-140)

Bet On UFC 309 Paul Craig vs Bo Nickal At BetUS!

Take A Look At These Other 2 UFC Betting Picks Articles:

• UFC 309 Predictions: Best Betting Picks for Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic 11/16.
• Chandler vs Oliveira UFC Picks: Bet This Fight to Finish Early 11/16

Question Of The Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets