Pereira vs Ankalaev Prediction, Odds and Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds Best Bet for UFC 313 on March 8

This weekend, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, we have a light heavyweight championship fight guaranteed to deliver precisely what we expect from a UFC main event: hype, anticipation, excitement, and brutality. However, I don’t need to hype this fight card with convincing language; I only need to tell you Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira is fighting.

Everyone’s favorite Brazilian knockout artist and Fighter of the Year 2024 is back for his first battle of the year versus an intriguing opponent: Magomed Ankalaev, who hasn’t lost since 2018.

The stage is set, an electric atmosphere will be palpable, expect the unexpected, and most importantly, I’m back attacking the Pereira vs Ankalaev odds to give you my complete breakdown and best bets for the fight!

Chama or No Chama? 👀@AlexPereiraUFC and @AnkalaevM meet in the #UFC313 main event THIS Saturday! Who do think is coming out on top? 🏆

[ @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET | 📺: https://t.co/f2RooxQKqW ] pic.twitter.com/zVSs3emaXO

— UFC (@ufc) March 4, 2025

UFC 313 How to Watch

• Date/Time: Saturday, March. 8, 2025 – 06:30 p.m. ET
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• UFC 313 Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev
• Co-Main Event Bout: Justin Gaethje vs Rafapereirael Fiziev

Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev Betting Preview

The Champ: Alex “Poatan” Pereira

Three title fights in seven months. Three knockout wins within that time frame. The honors of being a former middleweight champion and the current light heavyweight champion were all achieved within two years of competing under the UFC banner and just 10 pro-MMA bouts!

Pereira has defined greatness in such a short amount of time that his name is already etched alongside the greats, win or lose this weekend. Still, another dub would be a slap in the face to those who doubt him, and who knows, it could be a potential path to doing the unthinkable by challenging for a third title at heavyweight against Tom Aspinall or Jon Jones.

However, before our fantasy minds run wild with what’s next for Pereira, he has to face what’s arguably the most difficult challenge of his 205lb tenure. Will Poatan shock UFC betting fans once again? Or are his days as the light heavyweight king numbered?

Happy Alex Pereira Fight Week 🕺@AlexPereiraUFC | #UFC313 pic.twitter.com/dsWIlCQ7Th

— UFC (@ufc) March 3, 2025

The Challenger: Magomed Ankalaev

Six years ago witnessed the debut of Magomed Ankalaev as a 9-0 unbeaten competitor. He went on to dominate his debut until the final seconds of the third round, when Paul Craig was Paul Craiging, and he locked up a triangle shock to finish the Dagestani prospect. It was a shock, to say the least, but if you believed those types of results were going to be a trend for Ankalev, you were severely wrong.

Thirteen fights later, and Ankalaev remains unbeaten. Yes, a no-contest with Johnny Walker and a draw Jan Blachowicz put an asterisk on it to give just a two-fight win streak on paper, but there’s no denying the Russian’s position as a No.1 contender. While he’s had to earn the right to challenge for the gold a second time, I don’t believe anyone can dispute that the rightful man is stepping into the cage with Poatan this weekend.

There have been a few heated moments between Ankalaev and Pereira in the build-up to the fight, but none of that will matter once the octagon door slams shut on Saturday. The main questions circulating UFC news and rumors will be answered: Is Pereira live for another highlight-reel knockout? Or is Ankalaev truly a stylistic nightmare?

“I feel more confident, I’m well developed, I’ve improved tremendously so I am looking at myself as just a new version”

Magomed Ankalaev isn’t lacking confidence and claims he is a new and improved version of himself going into #UFC313.

Order UFC 313: https://t.co/LVFWVkjKA0

— UFC News (@UFCNews) March 5, 2025

Striking or Wrestling?

Anyone familiar with Pereira will know his biggest flaw in MMA is wrestling/grappling. Funnily, Ankalaev sent him a little warning, proclaiming that he’d better be ready to wrestle for 25 minutes.

Not one to hold back, the champ had some choice warnings of his own:

“I think this is going to be a great experience,” Pereira said. “And I can make his words my own, as well. Let’s see if he can stand for 25 minutes. If he can’t grapple me for 25 minutes, then he will have to stand up, and we all know how that will go.”

Alex Pereira responds to Ankalaev telling him ‘I hope you’re ready to wrestle for 25 minutes’:

“Let’s see if he can stand 25 minutes. If he can’t grapple me for 25 minutes he’s gonna have to stand up.

We all know how that’s gonna go.” 👀

🎥 @nypostpic.twitter.com/fWM0ZgPp5q

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) March 3, 2025

Pereira vs Ankalaev: The Tale of The Tape

Inside the Octagon: Pereira vs Ankalaev Skillset Breakdown

Striking? Chama!

Poatan is a multi-time kickboxing champion and a two-division UFC title winner, and all of these achievements have been centred around his striking capabilities. He has a left hook so powerful it’ll make you wince whenever it lands on the opposition, incredible footwork and confidence striking at a distance or in the pocket, and then low and high kicks capable of causing serious damage.

For Ankalaev, despite the narrative that he must wrestle to defeat Pereira, he’s also presented a striking base for most of his career. Unlike the champ, however, he’s more patient, focuses a lot of jabs and straight shots, and certainly doesn’t have the same power or finishing capabilities. This is something to consider before making any UFC predictions.

It’s Poatan fight week #UFC313 pic.twitter.com/05CqTZoX9P

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) March 3, 2025

Grappling? Uh oh?!

As a result of Pereira being such a dangerous striker, the obvious blueprint, even for fighters most comfortable striking otherwise, is to attack single legs, clinches, and takedowns of any kind. While we’ve watched Pereira get easily taken down by Israel Adesanya and Jan Blachowicz previously, it’ll be interesting to see if the Dagestani follows this path to victory or opts to strike instead and whether or not Pereira’s takedown defense or get-up game has evolved.

We don’t know if Ankalaev can wrestle for 25 minutes, and we’ve never seen him shoot takedowns right out of the gate. We do, however, know that Pereira can stand and bang in rounds 1, 2, 3, or 4 and still have the power to shut the lights out.

So many questions and answers will be taken from this bout, and that’s a huge reason why the oddsmakers are almost split on the moneyline MMA betting odds for this title clash.

3 vulnerabilities of Poatan in a single clip:

-Gets hit with a left hook off a level change: Pereira tends to freeze when he’s unsure about the attack being a takedown or a strike
-Right hand counter over his left hook inside the pocket
-Takedown under his tall stance left hook pic.twitter.com/K2rwAp0vKm

— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) March 4, 2025

Pereira vs Ankalaev Betting Trends

• Ankalaev has never been knocked out
• Ankalaev has seen over 2 ½ rounds in 7 of his previous 8 UFC bouts
• Pereira has seen over 2 ½ rounds in 5 of his last 7 UFC bouts

Betting on UFC 313: Best Bet for Pereira vs Ankalaev

Whether you’re backing Pereira’s striking or Ankalaev’s more complete MMA skillset at BetUS Sportsbook, respectable prices rest on either side. That said, if you’re looking for a clearer path to betting profits, I see value in the over 2.5 rounds at -155.

Yeah, go ahead, call me a cop out because I’m not picking a winner, but if there’s one clear similarity between these two men, it’s durability.

Pereira’s chin was a liability at 185lbs, so the Adesanya KO receives a pass. At 205lbs, he’s built like a brick sh*t house and has taken clean shots from some seriously power dudes. Therefore, I don’t envision an early stoppage coming from Ankalaev’s side, who, for the most part, has never finished an elite opponent via strikes (No, we’re not counting Walker Smith, or Cutelaba LOL), and even if the challenger opts to grapple, he’s never won by submission.

For this UFC expert pick, it is important to remember that Ankalaev has also been solid in terms of durability. In 22 pro career bouts, he’s never suffered a knockout loss, and while Pereira is certainly live to snap that trend, I do believe the Russian will wrestle, for at least the first two rounds (Because why wouldn’t he?), and help us reach the over 2.5 rounds! Not to mention, even though both men can finish a fight, most of these finishes in the top rankings have gone over the total.

Bet This Pick: Pereira vs Ankalaev Over 2.5 Rounds (-155)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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