There are many excellent fights on the card this Saturday in Las Vegas, including Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn.
UFC Fight Night odds are available for the undercard fight, which features two impressive fighters. However, we believe the favorite is the Lock of the Night.
Hawes Delivering the Goods
Phil Hawes is 11-2 after defeating Kyle Daukaus and Nassourdine Imanov earlier this year. Both wins came by decision, but the 32-year-old American was dominant in his performances.
They followed an incredible knockout win against Jacob Malkoun in his UFC debut, which ended in 18 seconds. It was a statement win from the New Jersey native, who followed it up with a classy win over the dangerous Daukaus.
Hawes believes he’s in line for a title shot, which is why his friendship with title holder Israel Adesanya is on the rocks.
“Like I always say, it’s not Izzy I’m hunting for, I’m hunting for the belt and Izzy happens to have the belt,” Hawes told MMA Fighting. “There’s no ill will towards Izzy, we were friends back in the day. We used to follow each other on Instagram, but then when I started winning fights in the UFC he unfollowed me. I know, it’s weird. I know he’s watching.”
PHIL HAWES FIGHT WEEK pic.twitter.com/w4qqNLewFt
— The DBFA (@TubsPeterson) October 4, 2021
Hawes wanted to knock out Daukaus to send a message, but despite not getting the finish, he did showcase his overall skills.
“I didn’t look at Kyle as the next step, I looked at Kyle as just the opponent in front of me,” Hawes said. “I believe I’m the champion of the world as we speak, right now. So I knew Kyle Daukaus was tough. I didn’t get the finish, but I got the win and I got to showcase some more of my skills and gain more experience.”
The sportsbook has Hawes at -350 to beat Deron Winn at UFC Fight Night. Despite being at a short quote, there is value with Hawes.
Can Winn Match Hawes?
Anything can happen in the UFC, which is why we love watching it. However, Deron Winn would need to improve to match up with Hawes.
Winn comes off a decision win over Antonio Arroyo, which was heavy with takedowns. He landed 12 of 16 takedowns to maul Arroyo, but fighting Hawes is a different beast.
Hawes defended all seven takedown attempts against Daukaus, which doesn’t bode well for Winn on Saturday. He will be gunning for the takedown at every chance he gets, because he doesn’t stand much chance on the feet.
— MMAmountin (@MMAmountin) October 4, 2021
Hawes threw 210 punches in his recent win, compared to 89 from Winn. It’s a significant difference, so Winn will need to match his outfit to get the win. Arroyo was so poor that the UFC has cut him from the roster, so that doesn’t bode well.
Bettors got a better glimpse of what Winn could offer in his previous fight against Gerald Meerschaert, who finished the win with a third round submission.
Upsets can happen in the UFC, and bettors could see the +250 as value for Winn. However, he would have needed an incredible training camp to pose a threat to Hawes.
Hawes vs Winn Pick
Our UFC Lock of the Night with Phil Hawes to win at -350. UFC best bets should have the American on top and he’s one of the best fighters on the card.
We are confident he can finish the job before time runs out, but we’re happy to take the current odds for a win.
Not only has he fought much harder opponents but he has excellent takedown defense, which could stymie the attack of Winn.
He also has a significant reach advantage, so there will be no excuses for Hawes. The impressive MMA artist has his eyes on a title fight, and although he’s a fair way from getting that opportunity, we can’t see Winn getting in his way.
Include Hawes on your UFC Fight Night tickets. He looks like a safe bet on the five-fight main card.