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Prelims and Decisions Will Get You Paid

Two of UFC’s best bets can be found on the prelims Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Cynthia Calvillo (13-3) will face Andrea Lee (17-5) and Khaos Williams (12-2) will meet Miguel Baeza (10-1). The ESPN+ prelims card begins at 1 p.m. ET before heading to the main card headlined by Max Holloway and Yair Rodriguez.

The Judges Will Help

Cynthia Calvillo (-130) vs Andrea Lee (Ev)

UFC fight odds have Cynthia Calvillo (-130) as a slight favorite over Andrea Lee (Ev) on the prelims card. Calvillo is not known for her punching power but can certainly absorb punches pretty well. That was not the case in her last fight as she was stopped for the first time in her 13-fight career losing to Jessica Andrade.

Prelims and Decisions will get you paid
Steve Marcus/Getty Images/AFP

Lee might have the slight edge in the striking department but she’s not known for her striking power either. Calvillo never looks uncomfortable eating strikes to throw combinations with an exception in her fight against Andrade.

Both fighters have not won by TKO or KO since January of 2017, a day apart from each other. Calvillo has not finished a fight by KO or TKO since Jan. 13, 2017, and Lee has not won by KO or TKO since Jan. 14, 2017. It’s been 10 fights since either have won by KO or TKO.

You might give the edge to Calvillo on the ground despite having fewer wins via submission. All three of her submission wins have come in the UFC. Lee has five submission wins but only one in the UFC. Both fighters do well with submission defense.

Expect Lee to weather any storm that Calvillo brings both on the feet and on the ground. You may not like the value this fight brings when betting online so to the prop department we go. The ground game and striking department will not be too significant to overcome by either fighter.

Lee’s better striking and submission defense will be just enough to win in the scorecards.

Pick: Lee by Decision or Tec. Decision (+185)

Getting through the first round when facing Williams is key and Baeza has the style to do so. Williams has four fights in the UFC and he’s finished two of those opponents by KO in the first round. Williams has shown to open fights aggressively and Baeza has the style to negate that.

Baeza dealt with similar intensity in his last fight against Santiago Ponzinibbio. Ponzinibbio is a more decorated striker than Baeza who was looking to finish him in the first round. Baeza does well with keeping such strikers at bay and has shown he can nullify good strikers through his leg kicks, limiting the mobility of his opponents.

Baeza doesn’t go down easily and he’s shown he doesn’t have a weakness in his game. Expect a showcase of toughness by Baeza before eventually finding his range. Both of these fighters have shown they can go the distance and Baeza will be the beneficiary of that.

Pick: Baeza by Decision or Tec. Decision (+250)

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