Rakhmonov vs Garry Picks and Prediction: Bet on Favorite to Dominate by Submission on December 7

Everything is on the line when Shavkat Rakhmonov faces Ian Machado Garry for this UFC 310’s co-main event. Not only are their undefeated records at stake but so is a shot at the welterweight title. Rakhmonov was supposed to fight Belal Muhammad for the belt but his injury pushed Garry to step in with under a month’s notice.

The UFC betting odds are wide but we expect Rakhmonov to hand Garry his first loss.

Rakhmonov vs Garry Fight Information

• Fight: Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) vs Ian Machado Garry (15-0-0)
• Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 7, 10:00 p.m. ET
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Rakhmonov vs Garry Live Stream: DAZN

Rakhmonov vs Garry Prediction: 2 Picks to Bet on Dec 7

1. Bet on Rakhmonov by Submission (+175)

The online sports betting lines are wide and make it difficult to make dough here. On one hand, it’s not ideal to lay -350 on Rakhmonov against a dangerous opponent. But on the other, we simply won’t tout the underdog just because he is at +250. Instead, look to the UFC props for the best value bet here: a submission win for Rakhmonov at +175.

Undefeated 😤 🇰🇿 #UFC310

Shavkat Rakhmonov moved to 18-0 with this submission! pic.twitter.com/3lUfFHzUrQ

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) December 1, 2024

Rakhmonov is a pressure fighter who is aggressive but also methodical. While he hits hard (eight wins by knockout), his main strength is his grappling. Five of his six UFC victories have come via submission. While Garry has never been submitted, there is a first time for everything.

Garry is a well-versed mixed martial artist. He’s primarily a striker but has some grappling chops, which he used against Michael “Venom” Page as we predicted.

However, Page is a striker with no grappling edge. Rakhmonov is like Khabib Nurmagomedov and will relentlessly pursue the takedown on Garry. The Irishman has not fought a wrestler of his caliber and will get worn down over five rounds.

That’s a key aspect of this fight as well. Had this been three rounds, we may have bet online on Garry. But this is five rounds and we’ll give Rakhmonov the edge in a longer fighter. It may take him a while, but Rakhmonov can outwork and outlast Garry. A submission victory has solid odds considering what a straight bet on the favorite is going for.

Bet on Shavkat Rakhmonov by Submission (+165)

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2. Rakhmonov vs Garry Over 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Even if Rakhmonov has a 100% finish rate, he is not an overly aggressive fighter like Khamzat Chimaev. Rakhmonov is much more disciplined and will take all 25 minutes if that’s how long he needs to win. But he won’t need all five rounds just three or four. That’s still enough for a UFC pick to go over the 2.5 listed in the book.

Rakhmonov and Garry may preserve their stamina to start, especially in a five-round fight. There is typically a “feeling out” process in these high-stakes bouts. You have a title shot on the line so expect both to be more calculated than usual regardless of the smack talk thrown during the build-up. They’ve also sparred with each other.

“Looks like Ian forgot what happened during those training sessions,” Rakhmonov tweeted in response to Garry calling him out following his UFC 303 victory over Page.

What’s also likely is Rakhmonov shooting for takedowns more often than usual. Garry may be the most proficient striker Rakhmonov will face. Stephen Thompson is past his prime while Geoff Neal was coming from an injury.

Rakhmonov should submit Garry at some point but it won’t be until the later rounds. The -160 line is not ideal but betting on this fight to end in a finish is a whopping -300. Considering the situation, the better UFC prediction is on the ‘over’.

Bet on Rakhmonov vs Garry Over 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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