One of the better fights on the UFC Fight Night card Saturday is Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden.
Brown turned heads with his submission win over Alex Oliveira at UFC 261, but the hype could fail to deliver against 18-6-0 Gooden, who is hunting the upset victory.
Identifying an underdog can be difficult in MMA, but UFC Fight Night odds are in our favor in this situation.
We expect the first main-card fight at UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Dern to be a cracker.
Beware the Hyped Fighter
We’re not discrediting Randy Brown’s excellent submission win over 22-11-1 Alex Oliveira, but with that victory came plenty of hype.
Brown, who improved his record to 13-4, was coming off a knockout loss to Vicente Luque, which highlighted his weaknesses. There’s no doubt he’s a quality submission artist, but he often leaves himself exposed and prime for a knockout.
Not only was that evident in the Luque fight, but he also got knocked out by Niko Price in 2018. Price is a quality fighter, so he hasn’t been facing easy opponents, but there will be openings for Gooden.
— Hump Day Izzy (@HumpdayIzzy) October 4, 2021
Brown is a confident fighter who believes he’s better everywhere than Jared Gooden.
“I do believe I have an advantage on the feet and the ground. I’m a better fighter and I can get it done wherever I want… I can see a finish happening,” Brown told BJPenn.com.
Brown was expecting to face a top-level opponent, but it was not to be. There is cautiousness shown by matchmakers, which isn’t ideal for Brown backers.
“I haven’t been an active fighter in the past couple of years and I want to get active and build my winning streak and in order to do that, I need people to fight,” he added. “He was available and he wanted to fight.”
The sportsbook believes Brown will get the job done. The 31-year-old is the dominant -230 favorite, but we’re not overlooking the chances of his opponent.
Gooden Bounces Back in Style
Losing to Alan Jouban and Abubakar Nurmagomedov was tough for Jared Gooden, but he responded in top fashion in August.
He scored a knockout win over Niklas Stolze in just 1:08, which put him firmly back on track in the welterweight division.
“My mentality and my coach changed,” Gooden said in his post-fight interview with Paul Felder. “We knew we couldn’t go to the judges no more, and that’s what changed.”
The win came on four days’ notice, which made it even more impressive.
6 days until Glory!! pic.twitter.com/IjqYcbz2EQ
— Jared Gooden (@JGNiteTrain23) October 3, 2021
Losing to Jouban and Murmagomedov by decision is nothing to be ashamed of, and that experience did him the world of good on the Hall vs Strickland card. He showed how much he had improved last time in the Octagon, so bettors should be confident of a Gooden victory.
The Alabama native is only 27 years old, so he still has plenty of time to mature. He had a tough introduction into the UFC, so the company clearly had a big opinion of him from the outset.
Bettors get +180 for Gooden to win with betting online markets, which could firm throughout the week.
Brown vs Gooden Pick
Our UFC Upset of the Night is Jared Gooden to beat Randy Brown at +180.
We don’t mind following the hype train, but we think Brown is susceptible to getting knocked out when he least expects. He’s expecting to roll through Gooden to set up a much bigger fight, but that’s when the focus can clock off.
Gooden knows he has been given an opportunity to beat a top-tier opponent, and we think he will take it with both hands.