Judging by the UFC betting odds, Grant Dawson should run through Rick Glenn at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night. After his original opponent, Carlos Diego Ferreira, dropped out, Dawson gets a less prominent foe but potentially just as dangerous. Glenn has been a .500 fighter while in the UFC but he has been the author of many upsets.
Dawson (17-1-0) is unbeaten in his UFC tenure (5-0) and is knocking on the door of being a ranked fighter. A win over Ferreira would have placed him for sure. Now he enters this bout vs Glenn (22-6-1) in a high-risk, low-reward position this Saturday.
- Date: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Watch on: ESPN+
Ricky Glenn vs Grant Dawson
Weight Class: Lightweight (155)
Rounds: Five (Main Event)
Moneyline: Rick Glenn +275, Grant Dawson -375
Totals: Over 2½ (-145), Under 2½ (+115)
The most likely outcome here is for Dawson to use his potent wrestling attack to neutralize and beat up Glenn. However, if he stands and trades with Glenn, he runs the risk of getting hurt. Most bets online have already steamed Dawson. He opened at -300 and is now down to -375.
Now fighting at 155 pounds, Dawson is healthier and sturdier. He dusted Leonardo Santos, a tough Brazilian veteran. But Glenn is no stranger to facing steep odds. Online bettors, like Dawson, should not overlook Glenn.
Glenn Flourished as Underdog
By the time the octagon closes, Glenn could be as high as +300 underdog given the one-way betting trend. But the “Gladiator” is no stranger to being counted out. The man hits hard and has come through as a big underdog on more than one occasion.
Glenn dusted Georgi Karakhanyan as a +355 underdog back in the World Series of Fighting (WSOF) and stopped Gavin Tucker’s hype train in its tracks as a +320 underdog. Most recently, he needed just 37 seconds to dispose of Joaquim Silva as a +125 underdog.
— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) June 19, 2021
However, Glenn does lack the grappling credentials needed to beat the ranked fighters. He is a litmus test for someone like Dawson. But if he can keep this fighting standing long enough, he may just pull off another shocker.
Dawson Needs to Avoid Spoiler
Let’s give Dawson props for taking this fight against Glenn, a tough opponent who won’t move his needle even if he dominates the bout. Many times has a hot prospect seen their contender status go up in smoke when they take an ill-advised fight.
Rick Story was derailed by Charlie Brenneman as a -500 favorite. Josh Grispi also lost to a then-unknown Dustin Poirier as -310 on the sportsbook. Both Story and Grispi never sniffed the top five after their losses. Dawson could avoid going down this path by beating Glenn.
Dawson should avoid playing with fire and wrestle the stuffing out of Glenn. He managed to outgrapple Santos, and one does not simply outgrapple a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt like Santos. An impressive finish from Dawson can continue him down the contenders’ path.
If this was a straight pick, we’re taking Dawson with few questions. He will be able to mix it up against Glenn and once he has his powerful arms around him, he should be able to get on top and beat him up. But this isn’t a straight pick.
Hence, the UFC’s best bet is to side with the underdog, Glenn. At +275, Glenn has an opportunity to land on Dawson and hurt him. All it takes is one clean punch to change the tone of a fight. Wait for the props as well and sprinkle a little on Glenn by knockout.