Sandhagen vs Figueiredo Prediction For May 03: UFC Des Moines Betting Breakdown and Top Picks

It’s been 25 years since the UFC last touched down in Iowa, and with every ticket at the Wells Fargo Arena sold out for this weekend’s UFC Des Moines Fight Night card, it’s obvious that the Hawkeye State is eager for the octagon brutality to return!

Headlining Iowa’s first Fight Night since 2000 will be bantamweight sluggers Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo. And on that note, it’s time for me to dissect the UFC betting odds.

Read on to find my UFC expert picks and predictions!

Sandhagen vs Figueiredo: The Tale of The Tape

Sandhagen vs Figueiredo Skillset Breakdown and Betting Preview

• Cory Sandhagen: Does Size Really Matter?

After spending the majority of his seven-year UFC tenure as a top-ranked bantamweight competitor, holding a 10-4 record and wins over some of the division’s finest, it’s surprising that Sandhagen has yet to receive a title opportunity, although a statement victory over the former flyweight champ this weekend might just edge him closer!

If you know anything about Sandhagen, you’ll know he’s a striker first. Take his most recent loss against Umar Nurmagomedov, for example. The Russian spammed takedowns and dominated him on the ground to avoid the versatile striking offense.

As Figueiredo doesn’t possess a level of grappling close to that of Umar, he might have to play with fire and settle for a striking battle with Sandhagen, and in that case, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get burned.

However, when discussing advantages, Sandhagen’s 5’11 “frame versus Figgy’s 5’5” frame might just prove that size really does matter.

• Deiveson Figueiredo

Figueiredo is the former flyweight king, but since moving to 135 lbs, it hasn’t been plain sailing. His most recent bantamweight clash took him to 3-1 in the division, as Petr Yan outclassed the Brazilian on the feet. To me, this is telling, especially as Sandhagen has the skills to emulate this path to victory simply by notching the higher volume of strikes and being the more talented striker overall.

Of course, we cannot ignore the power Figueiredo has in his hands. He might not be able to match Sandhagen in volume, but he’ll undeniably own the power advantage. There is a problem, though, as ‘The Sandman’ owns a granite chin and has never been knocked out during his career, while Figgy is still looking for his first knockout win as a bantamweight.

Bet on Sandhagen vs Figueiredo Over 4.5 Rounds (-210)

Sandhagen vs Figueiredo Betting Trends

Here are some MMA betting trends to consider for this fight:

• Figueiredo has gone the distance in 3 of his 4 UFC bantamweight bouts
• Sandhagen has gone the distance in 5 of his previous 6 bouts
• Sandhagen has won 3 of his previous 4 UFC bouts

Sandhagen vs Figueiredo Best Bet: Sandhagen by Decision (-150)

I envision that the striking exchanges favor Sandhagen as he’ll be the faster, larger, and more technical kickboxer of the two. With Figgy not having the greatest offensive wrestling background, I don’t believe he’ll have enough to cause any jiu-jitsu worries for ‘The Sandman,’ and although his power at flyweight was menacing, testing an untested chin in a division where his power hasn’t been on display might prove difficult.

In conclusion, we have two solid levels of durability to consider for our UFC picks. Still, with the Yan blueprint to defeating Figgy available to Sandhagen and easily replicated, he’ll likely be the man to have his hand raised in victory, albeit on the judge’s scorecards.

What I can’t respect about this contest is the current moneyline odds. Sandhagen at -480 feels absurd, despite the fact that I see him as the rightful favorite. This forces us to attack the UFC prop odds market, and in that case, give me Sandhagen to win by decision and/or over 4 /12 rounds.

Bet on Sandhagen to Win by Decision (-150)

UFC Des Moines How to Watch

• Date and Time: Saturday, May 3, 2025 – 07:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
• Co-Main Event Bout: Reinier de Ridder vs Bo Nickal

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing.Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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