UFC Fight Night Props
Finishes can be an arbitrary thing in MMA and even in the UFC. However, reading into the UFC betting lines, over half of the fights at UFC Vegas 49 on Saturday are favored to end in some kind of a finish. This includes the two main bouts. As fans, we’d love finishes, but we can only bet on two of them as two decisions are too valuable to fade.
- Date: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
- Watch on: ESPN+
Nunes Brutally Welcomes Pascual to UFC
Power punchers are rare in MMA, even in the UFC. This is why women like Josiane Nunes are a treat to watch as the UFC has set her up with an even easier fight than her last. She gets to fight newcomer Ramona Pascual, who is a grappler. Pascual (6-2-0) will also be larger. But this only means Nunes (8-1-0) will have more to punch.
ANOTHER massive KO, what is happening at The Apex!?
— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) August 22, 2021
In what should play out similarly to her last fight, Nunes should be able to fend off Pascual’s half-hearted takedown attempts and keep the fight standing. She will then light up Pascual until she gets saved by the ref. This could be the best UFC bet of the evening.
Pick: Nunes To Win By KO, TKO or DQ (-110)
Cirkunov, Turman Go the Distance
As a bit of a palette cleanser, we’re picking the co-main event to not get finished and at a great price. The consensus is that both Misha Cirkunov and Wellington Turman are glass-jawed fighters who could go down after one clean punch. That is a possibility.
However, it is also just as likely that these two grapplers try to out-grapple each other or engage in a sloppy and hesitant striking exchange. Either way, this could lead to a decision similar to Cirkunov’s (15-7-0) last fight and three of Turman’s (17-5-0) five UFC bouts, including his only two wins.
Pick: Will Fight Go The Distance – Yes (+130)
Cachoeira Upsets Kim
We’ve bet and lost with Priscilla Cachoeira before. But so long as she gets underdog odds on the sportsbook, we’ll keep rolling with her. The Brazilian is the harder hitter here and while her grappling leaves plenty to be desired, Ji Yeon Kim is not the fighter to exploit that.
Kim (9-4-2) will engage Cachoeira (10-4-0) on the feet, which will favor the Brazilian. She should be able to land the harder punches and potentially even hurt and/or drop Kim. However, despite Cachoeira’s only UFC wins coming via KO, Kim is durable and has never been finished. Cachoeira to win by a decision at 3-1 is a great value.
Pick: P Cachoeira To Win By Decision or Tec. Decision +300
Green Shocks Makhachev
In our more comprehensive breakdown, we did pick Bobby Green straight-up. The value is on the last-minute replacement, especially at his lengthening odds (now at +550). While Islam Makhachev will likely just walk through him, Green’s (29-12-1) prop to finish Makhachev (21-1-0) early is a good way to double down.
Makhachev will also be cornered by the great Khabib Nurmagomedov, who helped him submit his last late-notice opponent, Dan Hooker, within three minutes. But what Green has is better takedown defense and a bit more pop in his punches. Don’t be fooled by the dozens of decision wins on his resume. Green can hit hard and may just find a way to catch Makhachev.
Bet online on Green to win or go for the home run and bank on him to land that KO blow within the first five minutes.