Shevchenko vs. Grasso III Odds: My Bets Bets for UFC 306 9/14
- We preview the Shevchenko vs Grasso III fight and give you our best MMA betting predictions.
- Alexa Grasso shocked the world as a +575 underdog when she won the women’s flyweight title at UFC 285.
- The rematch between Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko resulted in a controversial split draw, and now the stage is set for UFC 306 this weekend as the trilogy bout will end this rivalry.
- Find the best available MMA odds for Grasso vs. Shevchenko III at BetUS Sportsbook.
History will be made at UFC 306 for a multitude of reasons, one of which involves the first-ever trilogy bout for a UFC women’s championship. Alexa Grasso dethroned the flyweight queen when she made her tap in 2023, and the newly crowned champ is hoping for a more conclusive defense of the strap than the rematch delivered, while “The Bullet” hopes to reinstate her position atop the division emphatically.
One year after Grasso and Shevchenko fought at Noche UFC in a rematch clash for the flyweight strap, the pair will return to settle the score on another Noche event in the co-main of UFC’s Mexican Independence celebrations at the Sphere. Expect fireworks in this penultimate fight of the evening, as this intense feud has delivered the goods on both occasions.
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As usual, we’re back with another fight breakdown, and this time, I’ll be dissecting the UFC 306 co-main event and the BetUs sportsbook odds to find the best betting value.
The trilogy title fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko goes down at #NocheUFC: who ya got? 🏆👀#UFC306 | Saturday, 10 ET | ESPN+ PPV 🍿 https://t.co/Rea50J8xii pic.twitter.com/qfm1209wIm
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 9, 2024
Shevchenko vs. Grasso III Fight Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, September. 14, 2024 – 07:30 p.m. ET
- Location: The Sphere, Las Vegas
- How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
- Moneyline Probability: Shevchenko – 46.5% (+115) Grasso – 59.2% (-145)
Shevchenko vs. Grasso III Betting Odds
Shevchenko vs. Grasso III Betting Preview
Valentina “The Bullet” Shevchenko: Already Goated
Valentina Shevchenko has been one of the planet’s most dominant women’s fighters for nearly a decade. She was the queen bee of the flyweight rankings, besting every opponent she faced between 2018 and 2023, following a 4-2 stint at bantamweight, where her only defeats came against a fellow elite, Amanda Nunes. It’s also worth mentioning that she gave Nunes one of the toughest fights to date, and when we discuss women GOATs in MMA, “The Bullet” is a must-have in everyone’s top three.
This is why the MMA community was left dumbfounded when Shevchenko dropped the title in March last year. An unsuspecting Alexa Grasso, with a 7-3 UFC record at the time and a meaty +575 price tag at BetUS Sportsbook, was losing two rounds to one before she pounced on “The Bullet” and choked her into submission.
After suffering one of the biggest upsets in MMA, Shevchenko couldn’t settle the score when a controversial draw was declared in the rematch. However, after a friendly coach versus-coach feud with Grasso on The Ultimate Fighter, the most dominant women’s flyweight competitor can make history again by etching ‘two-time champion’ onto her resume should she succeed in the trilogy this weekend.
Few have done it like Valentina Shevchenko 😤@BulletValentina looks to recapture the flyweight title at #UFC306!
[ @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC live SATURDAY on @ESPNPlus PPV ] pic.twitter.com/8GKEusKWLH— UFC (@ufc) September 10, 2024
Alexa Grasso: Mexican Pride
Nobody anticipated what Alexa Grasso would bring to the table following a sketchy start to her UFC career. Entering the promotion with an unblemished record presented much hype, but this was squashed when she struggled for consistency by going 3-3 in her first six bouts.
Then, a move to flyweight was evidently the wisest move of her career. She tore through the competition at 125 pounds, winning four consecutive bouts en route to shocking the world and tapping Shevchenko.
As the first Mexican-born women’s champion, it made sense that the rematch would occur at Noche UFC last September. Fans and critics quarreled over the draw decision. Still, none of that matters anymore because, with Mexican pride flying high on Independence weekend, Grasso can write her wrongs by once again defeating one of the biggest names in the sport.
Alexa Grasso’s chokehold was tight 😳 #NocheUFC #UFC306 | Saturday, 10 ET | ESPN+ PPV 🍿 https://t.co/ppTPlGGbYL pic.twitter.com/uuBLhXi8nP
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 9, 2024
Shevchenko Believes She Won the Rematch
Despite their last meeting resulting in a split draw, ahead of their trilogy bout this weekend at the Sphere, Valentina Shevchenko still believes she did enough to win the rematch:
“Our previous fight, I won that fight, and only because of an interesting decision by one judge did it go to the draw decision,” she told UFC news outlets. “If you ask the world of martial arts, everyone who understands fighting, all the judges and everything, they definitely saw me win in the fight.”
👀Valentina Shevchenko blames judge for her draw against Alexa Grasso in their last fight and believes she won the fight:
“Everyone saw the fight, everyone knows, everyone was very surprised because the mistake and error of a judge…everyone saw that I was the winner of this… pic.twitter.com/NhEYfozQ1k
— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) September 8, 2024
Shevchenko vs. Grasso III: The Tale of The Tape
Grasso and Shevchenko Inside the Octagon
While there’s no arguing a rear-naked choke defeat, the rematch between Grasso and Shevchenko resulted in a draw because one judge handed the former a 10-8 scorecard in the fifth round. This is the conclusion that sparked controversy, and “The Bullet” and much of the MMA community weren’t happy with such a result, especially when a 10-9 score would’ve seen the former champ claim the title with a split decision victory.
That said, it doesn’t matter how you see it; the rematch was undoubtedly close! In the striking realm, we saw Grasso land more significant strikes, and the pop behind said punches were evidently more impactful. In contrast, Shevchenko outclassed the Mexican champ in grappling, collecting four takedowns with over eight minutes of ground control.
Valentina Shevchenko vows to keep the judge’s scorecards from dictating the winner of her trilogy fight against Alexa Grasso at #NocheUFC.
Their second fight last September ended in a draw.
(via @AndreasHale) pic.twitter.com/bkXWy4JFv8
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 6, 2024
With close to 45 minutes of time shared in the octagon, these two ladies know each other very well, thus making it an incredibly difficult outcome to predict. Even during their stint as coaches on The Ultimate Fighter 32, they split the winners bragging rights between the featherweight and middleweight victors.
In the rematch, we witnessed clear adjustments by Shevchenko, which saw her present a cautious approach. Swifter footwork and a higher rate of low kicks kept Grasso’s crisp boxing at range, ultimately slowing the champ down. Of course, this didn’t completely shut out Grasso’s precise hands, especially in the later rounds, where she rallied back to rescue a draw.
Alexa Grasso is ready to prove Valentina Shevchenko wrong after Shevchenko told Grasso that she only lost their first fight because of a “mistake.” 👀 #NocheUFC#UFC306 l Sept. 14, 10 ET l ESPN+ PPV 🍿 https://t.co/Rea50J8xii pic.twitter.com/eDfub3ZSxH
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 6, 2024
Now we have to wonder what approach Shevchenko will take, as she has arguably been winning both fights at certain points with differing game plans. Will she come out with high pressure and hunt for the finish while placing herself in more danger, or will she replicate the last outing and hope the judges can see it differently?
Grasso can exploit Shevchenko on the feet if she’s made slight adjustments in her wrestling game, especially with a little more confidence in entering the pocket in the early rounds. Aged 36, following a long kickboxing and MMA career, I don’t envision “The Bullet” having the cardio to wrestle for 25 minutes constantly, so she’ll be forced to make adjustments, particularly in the latter rounds where she faltered in output in the rematch.
Grasso vs. Shevchenko III Betting Trends
- Alexa Grasso is undefeated as a UFC flyweight
- Shevchenko has lost just 1 fight in the previous 7 years
- Grasso has gone the distance in 12 of her 18 pro-MMA bouts
Grasso vs. Shevchenko III: UFC 306 Betting Prediction
The UFC betting odds on Grasso to beat Shevchenko were once +575, and now we’re receiving Shevchenko as a +115 underdog. It doesn’t make sense, despite the first result, and certainly after watching a razor-thin draw last time out.
Approaching this fight from a wagering standpoint doesn’t require deep analysis because common sense tells us it’s a dog or pass situation based on the outcome of the rematch. I do believe the submission win for Grasso in the first bout was merely a stupid mistake made by Shevchenko (Spinning kick), and I wouldn’t expect lightning to strike twice in this regard.
These two women are elite and very well-matched, so it’s easy to play it blind and bet on the value side in a contest that could easily result in another incredibly close split. Bet the underdog come fight night, and as of right now, that would be Shevchenko at +115.
Bet This Pick: Shevchenko Moneyline @ +115
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
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Questions Of The Day
Who is the biggest underdog at UFC 306?
Aoriqileng is the largest-priced underdog at UFC 306, with a +500 moneyline opposed to the -800 on his opponent Raul Rosas Jr.
