Solid Value On UFC 273 Betting Lines

UFC 273 Early Prelim Picks

Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa

• Moneyline: Aleksei Oleinik -115, Jared Vanderaa -115
• Round Totals: Over 1½ (-105), Under 1½ (-125)
• Weight Class (Rounds): Heavyweight (265 lbs) (3 Rounds)

Nothing like a greasy heavyweight fight to headline the early prelims. But the UFC knows what it’s doing as both Aleksei Oleinik and Jared Vanderaa are fighting for their jobs. Oleinik (59-16-1) is dinosaur-aged but remains in good shape while Vanderaa (12-7-0), a late replacement, has to cut down to 265 lbs.

Don’t blink on this one as this could end quickly. Ten of Oleinik’s 15 UFC bouts ended before the halfway mark. He is a master grappler with more submission wins (46) than most fighters in the UFC have fought. Vanderaa has grappling issues and is out of shape. He’ll get taken down and subbed. But Oleynik’s ailing chin scares us from betting him. Instead, bet online on the under.

Pick: Under 1½ (-125)

Anthony Hernandez vs Josh Fremd

• Moneyline: Josh Fremd +160, Anthony Hernandez -200
• Round Totals: Over 1½ (+115), Under 1½ (-145)
• Weight Class (Rounds): Middleweight (185 lbs) (3 Rounds)

The last-minute opponent change could hurt Anthony Hernandez in some sense. But he gets an “easier” fight on paper as he takes on a latecomer in Josh Fremd. Hernandez (9-1-0) is looking for a follow-up after his stunning upset over Rodolfo Vieira. Fremd (9-2-0) is a solid prospect with a respectable record in LFA but he has a tough assignment against Hernandez.

The online sports betting lines are a bit off in terms of the fight’s duration. While most of Fremd’s fights have ended early, Hernandez is tough to finish like a cockroach. It is more likely that Hernandez survives a few close calls and outlasts Fremd at some point in late Round 2 or Round 3.

Pick: Over 1½ (+115)

Piera Rodriguez vs Kay Hansen

• Moneyline: Kay Hansen -110, Piera Rodriguez -120
• Round Totals: Over 2½ -230, Under 2½ +180
• Weight Class (Rounds): Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs) (3 Rounds)

When it comes to women’s MMA fights, the betting lines can be confusing. This is almost always true with Kay Hansen who was once upon a time a hyped prospect. But two straight losses and she’s a slight underdog against newcomer Piera Rodriguez.

Rodriguez (7-0-0) is a fearsome grappler from Venezuela but she’s where Hansen (7-5-0) used to be: a promising fighter who has yet to be tested. Now Hansen transitions into that role of a veteran as she gives Rodriguez her toughest test. This one will come down to the wire and we like Hansen to pull it off. At these odds, she’s one of the best UFC bets.

Pick: Kay Hansen -110

Julio Arce vs Daniel Santos

• Moneyline: Daniel Santos +160, Julio Arce -200
• Round Totals: Over 2½ (-165), Under 2½ (+135)
• Weight Class (Rounds): Bantamweight (135 lbs) (3 Rounds)

Julio Arce may only be 17-5-0, but a lot of these losses came against upper-class opponents like Song Yadong and Hakeem Dawodu. Arce has also fought at 145 lbs. where he even has a win over top-15 fighter Dan Ige. He’s versatile, well-rounded, and durable, making him a tough out even against ranked competition.

Daniel Santos is a solid prospect but he’s got a rough debut here. Santos (10-1-0) is spectacular and will be the more creative fighter here. He starts fast and may even win the first round, but the UFC jitters and adrenaline dump could do him in as Arce weathers his storm and beats him over three rounds.

Pick: Julio Arce -200