UFC Odds Favor Holland To Finish Thompson
Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland headline the UFC’s return to Orlando. The latter aka “Big Mouth” is favored by the UFC betting odds to finish Thompson with the totals set to go under 4½. Both fighters are coming off losses and will need to win to re-establish themselves as contenders in a crowded welterweight division.
Holland Seizes Another Bonus-Worthy Performance
Heading into his third fight at welterweight, Holland looks to keep his streak of postfight bonuses intact. He submitted Tim Means and knocked out Alex Oliveira, two of the division’s most experienced veterans.
Jamahal Hill is a huge light heavyweight but Kevin Holland is a massive welterweight 👀 pic.twitter.com/fakpUNRhPw
— Luca Fury (@FurysFightPicks) November 22, 2022
At 6-foot-3 with an 81-inch reach, Holland is a massive welterweight. This helps him seize those finishes as he can attack opponents from more angles. His unorthodox style confuses more “traditional” types of fighters. And Holland’s weakness, grappling, won’t be an issue against the karateka, Thompson.
Holland, who already has 16 UFC bouts, tends to be favored. He is 8-2 as chalk with those two losses come against two grapplers in Derek Brunson and Brendan Allen at 185 pounds. At his current price, Holland is worth betting online.
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Is Thompson’s Time Up?
The sun might be setting for Thompson, a two-time title challenger in his prime. “Wonderboy” has lost two straight and is 2-4 in his last six bouts. While his recent defeats have come against grapplers like Belal Muhammad, he’s also been outmaneuvered by strikers like Darren Till. Anthony Pettis knocked him out.
At 39, Thompson may not be the same fighter anymore. He’s also become more “predictable” as contradictory as that sounds. But the book has been out on how to fight Thompson, who employs a distance-striking style of fighting. That has worked well for him in his heyday. But as his recent results have shown, it’s not been as effective.
And going against Holland, who will be significantly larger, Thompson will not have the ability to keep him at bay. He is rarely ever an underdog in the online sportsbook. But the bookies may have the right read on him here.
Thompson vs Holland Head-to-Head
Holland will sport a six-inch reach advantage over Thompson. He is also three inches taller. This will allow Holland to close the distance on Thompson more effectively than Thompson’s other opponents. The favorite is also almost nine years younger than Thompson and has higher striking accuracy (54% versus 43%).
Thompson vs Holland Fight Information
- Fighters: Thompson (16-6-1) vs Holland (23-8-0)
- Location: Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
- Day/Time: Saturday, Dec. 3, 12:40 a.m. ET
- Thompson vs Holland Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
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Thompson vs Holland Betting Lines
The odds in this chart are based on the time of publication. They are subject to change.
Thompson vs Holland Picks & Prediction
While Thompson is the better fighter technically speaking, Holland is far more dangerous. The former 185-pounder is faster, hits harder, and is bigger. He is no slouch technique-wise either. This is the same fighter that KO’d the grappling phenom, “Jacare” Souza while on his knees.
Thompson will frustrate Holland early in the fight. He may even win the first few rounds. But Holland will land on Thompson, hurt him, and finish him. A straight bet for Holland works. But a “Holland by TKO, KO, or submission” prop at +130 is the best UFC bet.
Kevin Holland is listed at -160 in our Vegas UFC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Holland, you can win $63. Stephen Thompson is +130, offering a chance to win $130 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Holland a 61.54% chance to win, with Thompson at 43.48%. Bet on UFC Right Away!