- Betting Lines Favor Tsarukyan
- Ismagulov Faces Underdog Odds for the First Time
- Tsarukyan Gets No Easy Fights
- Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Head-to-Head
- Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Fight Information
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- Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Betting Lines
- Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Picks & Prediction
Betting Lines Favor Tsarukyan
Coming off a hard-fought five-rounder against Mateusz Gamrot, Arman Tsarukyan must now meet a surging prospect in Damir Ismagulov. The UFC betting lines side with Tsarukyan, albeit not by much as Ismuaglov has not lost in UFC in the last seven years. In fact, this will be the first time Tsarukyan is an underdog in his UFC tenure.
Ismagulov Faces Underdog Odds for the First Time
Ismagulov is the stereotypical fighter whose surname ends with “ov” – he’s a Russian-Kazakh fighter who is exceptional almost everywhere. He is mostly seen as a grappler even if his takedown accuracy is just 28 percent. But he’s gone against the likes of Thiago Moises and Joel Alvarez, two top 15-caliber fighters.
It speaks volumes to how highly touted Ismagulov is that he’s been lined as a favorite against these types of fighters. He’s also delivered without much issue, though he had to eke it out against Guram Kuteladze, another blue-chip prospect.
As far as being a fighter worth betting on online, Ismagulov is a solid choice. It would take at least a well-rounded top-10 fighter to beat Ismagulov. Tsarukyan flirts with that criteria, hence why Ismagulov is an underdog. But at his current line, he may be the best UFC bet on this card.
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Tsarukyan Gets No Easy Fights
Like Ismagulov, Tsarakuyan gets no easy fights. This is a fighter that debuted against the current champion, Islam Makhachev then fought Olivier Aubin-Mercier, who just won the PFL tournament. Tsarukyan is 5-2 in the UFC and arguably won his last fight over Gamrot.
Arman Tsarukyan lost a unanimous decision against Mateusz Gamrot in his last fight.
— Verdict (@VerdictMMA) December 13, 2022
The Armenian is also well-versed in both striking and grappling. He has few weaknesses and just experienced a five-round fight. The key for him will be how effectively he can keep Ismagulov on his feet. He did that well enough against Gamrot, stuffing 15 of his 21 takedown attempts.
Gamrot is a better wrestler than Ismagulov. However, Tsarukyan’s losses have come against fighters who have had success in getting him to the mat. In a three-round fight, Tsarukyan will have less wiggle room for mistakes. Fortunately, he’s not that sizable of a favorite on the online sportsbook.
Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Head-to-Head
Tsarukyan is the smaller fighter in this matchup as Ismagulov is three inches taller with a two-inch reach advantage. However, he is five years younger than Ismagulov and has fought in more UFC fights. They both strike in the orthodox stance.
Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Fight Information
- Fighters: Tsarukyan (18-3-0) vs Ismagulov (24-1-0)
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Day/Time: Saturday, Dec. 17, 7 p.m. ET
- Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
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Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Betting Lines
Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov Picks & Prediction
Tsarukyan’s smaller stature actually works in his favor here. He’ll have a lower center of gravity, making him harder to take down. And on the feet, he is just a bit more technical than Ismagulov. Even if Ismagulov lands more significant strikes per minute (4.05), Tsarukyan has the better accuracy (45 percent) and defense – only 1.86 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He’ll get this done via a decision.
Arman Tsarukyan is listed at -190 in our Vegas UFC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Tsarukyan, you can win $53. Damir Ismagulov is +155, offering a chance to win $155 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Tsarukyan a 65.52% chance to win, with Ismagulov at 39.22%.