It’ll End in a Knockout
We can say one thing for sure; the Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich fight on Saturday will end with a knockout.
UFC odds have Pavlovich at -200 to improve his impressive record to 17-1, but Tuivasa is a one-punch knockout artist who can’t be overlooked.
UFC Fight Night promises to deliver and Tuivasa vs Pavlovich could steal the show.
Tuivasa Eyes Bounce Back
The nature of heavyweight MMA is that you’re likely to either get knocked out or knock someone out. Tuivasa knows that all too well after getting rocked by Ciryl Gane in September.
He’s on the bounce-back trail at UFC Fight Night and he’s more than capable of scoring a win over Pavlovich, but he’ll need to be at his best.
The Australian showed his credentials when knocking out Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, and Greg Hardy. The 29-year-old might not be the most technical fighter, but if his right-hand lands on his chin of Pavlovich, it’s all over.
“I want to finish this year off with a bang, but I’m going to take some time off next year and let my body heal, I’ve been pretty active for the last two years,” Tuivasa revealed to ESPN. “I’ve got a few niggles that need to be attended to, and I think it’s time that I go home and spend some time with my son.
“So it’s just time to get back in the winning column, knock this guy out, and come home.”
The sportsbook has Tuivasa at +160, which is a generous price for such a dangerous fighter. He’s not afraid to stand in the pocket and deliver, so he can’t be ignored. We think he’s a good chance, despite facing a rising star of the heavyweight scene.
Scoop on Free Play from the Locker Room
Pavlovich Tearing Through Division
Since losing to a juiced-up Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut, Pavlovich has been on a tear.
The Russian is 4-0 since then after beating Lewis with a first-round knockout in just 55 seconds, which makes him just as dangerous as Tuivasa.
He also discarded Shamil Abdurakhimov in the first round in March, which followed two first-round knockouts in 2019.
He has never been out of the first round since arriving in the UFC, which is an incredible statistic. We can’t see that changing against Tuivasa, so expect fireworks from the very outset in Orlando.
Las Vegas UFC lines have Pavlovich short at -200. We expected him to be the favorite, but this could be his toughest test yet, so he’s not an automatic wager and there could be some trepidation in UFC betting markets at that price.
Tuivasa vs Pavlovich Head-to-Head
It’s the first meeting between Tuivasa and Pavlovich.
Tuivasa vs Pavlovich Fight Information
- Fight: Tiivasa (15-4) vs Pavlovich (16-1)
- Location: Amway Center, Orlando, FL
- Day/Time: Saturday, Dec. 3, 7 p.m. ET
- Tuivasa vs Pavlovich Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
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Tuivasa vs Pavlovich Betting Lines
Tuivasa vs Pavlovich Picks & Prediction
There is good value in Tuivasa, who we believe has every chance to score the upset win.
The +160 is juicy and we also think the fight will end in the first round, so take under 1½ rounds at -210 to include in UFC parlays.
Tuivasa is listed at +160 in our Vegas lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Tuivasa, you have a chance to win $160. Pavlovich is -200, offering a chance to win $50 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Tuivasa a 38.46% chance to win, with Pavlovich at 66.67%.