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UFC 263 Picks & Props: Undercard Fights Worth Betting

Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori rekindle their rivalry in the UFC 263 main event along with a flyweight championship rematch in the co-feature. Prior to that, we’re treated to plenty of star power featuring the return of the one-and-only Nate Diaz (20-12-0) against red-hot Leon Edwards (18-3-0).

Beyond Diaz and Edwards, there is plenty in store via the UFC betting odds.

UFC 263 Undercard Picks
Nicholas YEO / AFP
    • Date: Saturday, June 12, 2021
  • Times: 6 p.m. ET (Early Prelims); 8 p.m. ET (Prelims); 10 p.m. ET Times: (Main Card)
  • Venue: Gila River Arena, Glendale, AZ, United States
  • Watch on: ESPN+, ESPN2, Pay-Per-View

If you want more on UFC lines and UFC odds, you can always find more on our site.

Undercard Fights To Bet

Edwards, Diaz Go all Five

  • Odds: Nate Diaz +400, Leon Edwards -600
  • Weight Class (Rounds): Welterweight (170 lbs ) (5 Rounds)

With all due respect to the four men fighting for the championships, Leon Edwards versus Nate Diaz is the people’s main event. Despite being moved from UFC 262 to 263, it’s the first time a non-title bout other than the main event will be five rounds. Yet another historic feat from Diaz.

Diaz will definitely be a popular underdog online bet here, especially at 4-1. But the only way he wins is if Edwards stands in front of him and tries to “out-gangster” him. Instead, look for Edwards to exploit Diaz’s Achilles’ Heel: his lack of wrestling.

Edwards should take Diaz to the ground and neutralize him. Even if the fight stays standing, he could outstrike Diaz. Regardless of who wins, this fight should go all five rounds thanks to how incredibly durable both are.

Pick: Totals – Over 4½ (-125) and/or Will The Fight Go The Distance – Yes (-115)

Maia Stalks Muhammad and a UFC Record

  • Odds: Demian Maia +180, Belal Muhammad -230
  • Weight Class (Rounds): Welterweight (170) (3 Rounds)

We can make the case that Demian Maia (28-10-0) will retire as the greatest pure grappler in the UFC. The Brazilian is 43 and looking to go out on top. A win over Belal Muhammad (18-3-0) will tie him with Donald Cerrone for most wins in the promotion.

While Muhammad is a proficient MMA fighter, he will have a hard time keeping Maia away from him for three rounds. Maia has only lost to elite-level grapplers like Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns. He should be able to cling to Muhammad or get him to the mat enough times to cash as an underdog.

Pick: Demian Maia +180

Jamahal Hill Lights Up Paul Craig

  • Odds: Paul Craig +220, Jamahal Hill -300
  • Weight Class (Rounds): Light Heavyweight (205 lbs) (3 Rounds)

Light heavyweight bangers Jamahal Hill (8-0-0) and Paul Craig (14-4-1) go to war in a fight that will most likely end in a finish. Hill has knocked out three of his last four opponents while Craig has finished all six of his UFC fights.

For Craig, it’s either finish or get finished. Only one of his 11 UFC fights has gone to a decision. While he’s extremely dangerous on the ground, he is hittable on his feet and that’s a recipe to getting KO’d by a striking prodigy in Hill.

Pick: J Hill To Win KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission (-130)

Evloev Makes Statement Against Fellow Prospect, Dawodu

  • Odds: Hakeem Dawodu +185, Movsar Evloev -235
  • Weight Class (Rounds): Featherweight (145) (3 Rounds)

On the note of great grapplers, Movsar Evloev (14-0-0) is a future title contender as an unbeaten Russian wrestler not unlike another unbeaten Russian wrestler at 155. While Evloev failed to impress in his last bout against UFC veteran Nik Lentz, Hakeem Dawodu (12-1-1) is not a grappler and will be ripe for picking.

Evloev isn’t just a grappler. He is a fast and efficient striker as well. He should be able to mix up his boxing and wrestling and soundly beat Dawodu here via the scorecards.

Pick: M Evloev To Win By Decision or Technical Decision -120

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