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UFC 269 Prelims: Plenty of Value in Competitive Matchups

The UFC is capping 2021 with a highly competitive UFC 269. And we’re not throwing this adjective out freely. Pay no heed to the UFC betting odds as most of the bouts on the card, from the Pay-Per-View to the early prelims, can go either way. Of course, this includes all four fights in the television prelims as we’ll uncover.

  • Date: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV, United States
  • Watch on: ESPN

UFC 269 Prelim Picks

Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige

  • Moneyline: Dan Ige +130, Josh Emmett -160
  • Round Totals: Over 2½ (-200), Under 2½ (+160)
  • Weight Class (Rounds): Featherweight (145 lbs) (3 Rounds)

As a contender to win the Fight of the Night bonus, we can expect sluggers in Josh Emmett and Dan Ige to give us a show. But at these online sports betting odds, the value is on Ige (15-4-0) who should be the faster and fresher of the pair.

Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige
DeFelice/Getty Images/AFP

While Emmett (16-2-0) has that one-punch knockout power, he’s more battle-worn, has been dealing with multiple injuries, and is coming off a layoff. Ige has a 5-2 record when lined at -115 or longer on the betting lines. He should avoid Emmett’s power long enough to edge him in the scorecards.

Pick: Dan Ige +130

Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz

  • Moneyline: Pedro Munhoz -120, Dominick Cruz -110
  • Round Totals: Over 2½ (-230), Under 2½ (+180)
  • Weight Class (Rounds): Bantamweight (135 lbs) (3 Rounds)

We don’t know who needs to hear this: but size matters! At least, a reach advantage in MMA does. The line is moving on Pedro Munhoz here as Dominick Cruz, the former champ is past his prime and mostly concerned about trolling his co-workers. But he has one undeniable advantage here: a three-inch reach advantage.

Looking at most of Munhoz’s (19-6-0, 1 NC) losses, he’s lost against fighters with a reach advantage. Cruz (23-3-0) is still elusive enough and smart enough to use his reach advantage to frustrate Munhoz. He should beat Munhoz so bet online on the “Decisionator”.

Pick: Dominick Cruz -110

Augusto Sakai vs Tai Tuivasa

  • Moneyline: Augusto Sakai -115, Tai Tuivasa -115
  • Round Totals: Over 1½ (-145), Under 1½ (+115)
  • Weight Class (Rounds): Heavyweight (265 lbs) (3 Rounds)

Big boys collide in a fight that could end quickly, so don’t use this fight as a bathroom break. The under 1.5 rounds at +115 could be the best UFC bet on these prelims. But as far as picking a side, we like Tai Tuivasa to starch Augusto Sakai.

Tuivasa (13-3-0) has won three straight fights, all via first-round knockout. He is the harder hitting of the pair and should utilize his powerful leg kicks to whittle down Sakai’s (15-3-1) defenses. The Brazilian is more technically proficient but tends to fade against powerful strikers like the big Australian.

Pick: Tai Tuivasa -115

Jordan Wright vs Bruno Silva

  • Moneyline: Jordan Wright +275, Bruno Silva -375
  • Round Totals: Over 1½ (+130), Under 1½ (-160)
  • Weight Class (Rounds): Middleweight (185 lbs) (3 Rounds)

Even with the lopsided odds, this isn’t a total mismatch. Jordan Wright is one of the more dangerous underdogs on UFC 269 thanks to his unpredictability. This middleweight throws a lot of “spinning sh-t” and has finished both of his wins in the first round. If Wright (12-1-0, 1 NC) goes out there and starches Bruno Silva in the first round (+1000), we won’t be shocked.

But one does not simply finish a UFC-caliber opponent. Silva (21-6-0) has a cast-iron chin and is a grizzled veteran. He won’t be impressed by Wright’s flashy techniques and will be the one doing the finishing. The play here is under 1.5 rounds.

Pick: Under 1½ (-160)

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