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UFC 269: Upsets, Unexpected Results

Plenty of Undervalued Prop Bets Available

UFC 269 packs plenty of betting opportunities for all types of folks. Those looking for great value will find them, especially with the UFC betting odds’ prop bets. From the main card to the early prelims, we pick out a handful of fights that have an added bonus if and when underdogs win and unexpected results play out.

  • Date: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
  • Watch on: Pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+

UFC 269 Props

France to Spoil Garbrandt’s Flyweight Debut

With only a few exceptions, moving down a weight division has not paid off too well for fighters – even former champions like Cody Garbrandt. While he looks good at flyweight, the weight cut may drain him and make him more susceptible to getting hit or even knocked out.

UFC 269
Isaac Brekken/Getty Images /AFP

And who does Garbrandt (12-4-0) get in his 125-pound debut? The prolific Muay Thai fighter, Kai Kara France. While France (22-9-0, 1 NC) isn’t as hard-hitting as he appears to be, he is the more experienced striker and has a four-inch reach advantage. A win on points is at +330, which is a juicy prop bet on the BetUS online sportsbook.

Pick: France To Win By Decision or Tec. Decision (+330)

O’Malley, Paiva to Go the Distance

The consensus here dictates that Sean O’Malley starches Raulian Paiva within two rounds. His last four wins have ended in a finish. But Paiva (21-3-0) is being underestimated. This Brazilian is tough like cast-iron and his only TKO loss came thanks to a cut. He should be able to endure O’Malley’s (14-1-0) onslaught and even pull off a comeback.

Regardless of who wins, there is considerable value on the prop that this fight goes all 15 minutes. O’Malley’s first two UFC fights went the distance, and at +120, bet online on this to yield a similar result.

Pick: Will The Fight Go The Distance? – Yes (+120)

Tuivasa Drills Sakai Early

As we detailed in our UFC 269 prelims breakdown, Tai Tuivasa (13-3-0) is on the right side in this even matchup. The Australian hits a lot harder and has been improving steadily since he went on a three-fight skid, now having won three straight and all by knockout. What’s Tuivasa’s secret sauce here? Leg kicks.

He can chop down Augusto Sakai’s defenses with a constant stream of leg kicks. And he doesn’t have to worry about getting taken down against Sakai (15-3-1), who has landed one in his UFC career. Tuivasa should be able to batter him and finish him in the second round.

Pick: Tuivasa To Win In Round 2 (+550)

Cachoeira Pulls Off Comeback

When it comes to big risks and bigger rewards, banking on Priscilla Cachoeira to upset Gillian Robertson is the best UFC bet. It is likely that sizable favorite Robertson (9-6-0) mangles Cachoeira (10-3-0) on the mat. But if she fails to submit Cachoeira early, she may just look for a way ou.

For Robertson, it’s a “first-round submission or bust” mentality. Cachoeira has the opposite mentality and will endure beatings to come back and stun her opponent. She already has considerable value at +295 but she is more likely to dust Robertson like she has to her last two opponents.

Pick: Cachoeira To Win By KO, TKO, DQ or Submission (+650)

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