The UFC knows how to send off Nate Diaz in style. The gangster from Stockton either finishes Khamzat Chimaev or gets smashed trying. The UFC odds are heavily in favor of the latter. But that’s not the only brutality we’ll get this evening as UFC 279 is lined with fights primed for some vicious finishes. We look at six of these fights and bet online on their best-value props.
UFC 279: Chimaev vs Diaz Props
Wolf Takes Chunk Out of Dumont
When it comes to the women’s featherweight division, bet on the underdog or pass. Danyelle Wolf (1-0-0) has no business being in the UFC but she’ll knock out Norma Dumont (7-2-0). The Brazilian will struggle to out grapple or tie up Wolf. This will give the boxer enough space to land a knockout blow on Dumont, who has been knocked out cold before.
Pick: Wolf By KO, TKO, DQ or Submission +600
Almeida Locks Up Turkalj
As far as squash fights go, Jailton Almeida (16-2-0) should maul Anton Turkalj (8-0-0). The two-division specialist is a tremendous grappler built like a superhero. Turkalj is a decent grappler himself but is coming in on short notice. Almeida should outwork him and submit him. We give Turkalj credit as he should survive the first round so a round 2 or 3 sub from Almeida is the best UFC bet here.
Pick: J Almeida By Submission and Round 2 +450
Dawodu Liquefies Erosa
Hakeem Dawodu (13-2-1) gets a tailormade fight against Julian Erosa (27-9-0) aka “Juicy J.” The only juice here will be Erosa after Dawodu melts him after a series of quick punches. Erosa has come through several times as an underdog. He can be a tricky opponent. But he absorbs a whopping 6.51 significant strikes per minute and has been KO’d five times in the UFC.
Pick: H Dawodu By KO/TKO/DQ and Round 1 +750
Walker Returns To Form Against Cutelaba
MMA is ripe with “recency bias” hence why many are writing off Johnny Walker (18-7-0) against Ion Cutelaba (16-7-1). The online gambling lines are off here as this is closer to a 50/50 with both men being fast starters. Cutelaba has improved technically but he’s still prone to get lit up. Walker has a seven-inch reach advantage and can catch Cutelaba.
Pick: J Walker By KO, TKO, DQ or Submission +275
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Leech Puts “El Cucuy” To Sleep
MMA is a cruel sport as evidenced by what is happening with Tony Ferguson (25-7-0). Once the boogeyman of the 155-pound division, Ferguson is moving up a division as a sacrificial lamb to Li Jingliang (19-7-0). Had this fight happened three years ago, the lines would be flipped. Instead, Li will put Ferguson out before the former interim champion can get any momentum going.
Pick: L Jingliang By KO, TKO, DQ, and Round 1 +350
Diaz Shocks The World… Again?!
We have no delusions here as Khamzat Chimaev (11-0-0) will likely destroy Nate Diaz (20-13-0) as the betting odds allude. However, we can’t bet Chimaev at these numbers. The value is on Diaz and it’s nuts that a sub prop for him pays at 14-1 since that’s his only way of winning.
Chimaev will most likely attempt to maul Diaz similarly to what he did to Li Jingliang. While Li is a stronger and bigger man, he does not have the grappling acumen of Diaz. The ever-enduring Diaz is dangerous off his back and has finished fights this way. If you’re looking for a big payout, this may be your best bet.
Pick: N Diaz By KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission +1400
UFC 279 Fight Information
- Date: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Make sure to check out the UFC Fight Night as we cover the most important events!