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UFC 300 Odds: Former Champ Oliveira Faces Rising Star Tsarukyan

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s highly anticipated 300th pay-per-view event this weekend features a lightweight clash of epic proportions on the main card, and we’re providing the best UFC bets tonight.

The formidable, former lightweight king, Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira, welcomes a fresh face to the top-five rankings of the 155-pound weight class: Arman Tsarukyan.

UFC 300 Odds: Former Champ Oliveira Faces Rising Star Tsarukyan
UFC 300 Odds: Former Champ Oliveira Faces Rising Star Tsarukyan

With one sleep remaining, the stage is set, and the betting lines are live, so let’s waste no time and jump straight into our deep dive of the UFC 300 main card showdown between Oliveira and Tsarukyan.

 

UFC 300 Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, April. 13, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
  • UFC 300 Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
  • Main Event Bout: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Weili Zhang vs. Xiaonan Yan
  • Moneyline Probability: Tsarukyan – 68.8% (-220) Oliveira – 35.7% (+180)

 

Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan Betting Odds


 

UFC 300: Fighter Previews

Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira

Fourteen years and 31 fights into his UFC tenure, the name Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira is that of legend. This Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt was initially touted as nothing more than a mid-tier competitor during his early career. Still, a 2018 coming-out party saw him go on an 11-fight win streak while capturing lightweight gold in the process.

Islam Makhachev put a stop to Oliveira’s unfathomable unbeaten reign, but as he’s arguably the No.1 pound-for-pound greatest fighter on the planet, little shame falls onto ‘Do Bronx’ for this loss and the legacy he’s built as one of the finest ever to step foot inside a cage.

 

 

  • Oliveira has the most submission wins in UFC history (14)
  • Oliveira has won four of his previous five bouts inside the distance
  • Oliveira has reached the second round in six of his last eight UFC bouts

 

Arman ‘Ahalkalakets’ Tsarukyan

The fighting pride of Armenia, Arman Tsarukyan, despite being just 27 years old, UFC betting fans have seen him rapidly climb the lightweight rankings after making his promotional debut in 2019. He was just 22 at the time of his debut, but notably, a short-notice battle and performance against the current champ, Makhachev, instantly made him a talent to watch.

Since then, Tsarukyan has won eight of nine contests and garnered attention for the dominant wrestling clinics he’s been able to force on his opponents. What’s more intriguing is that we’ve yet to see him reach his prime fighting years.

 

 

  • Tsarukyan has won eight of his two UFC bouts
  • Tsarukyan lost to Mateusz Gamrot as a -250 betting favorite
  • Tsarukyan has gone the distance in six of his 10 UFC bouts
  • Tsarukyan has reached the second round in four of his last five fights

 

 

Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan: Tale of The Tape

Oliveira
Tsarukyan
Brazil
Country
Armenia
34
Age
27
34-9-0 
Pro Record (Win/Loss)
21-3-0
10 KOs, 21 Submissions 
KO/Sub/Dec
9 KOs, 5 Submissions
5’10” 
Height
5’7” 
74.0”
Reach
72.5” 
06:52 
Avg Fight Time
12:22 
0.55
Knockdown Avg (15 min)
0.36
3.54
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min
3.85 
2.32
Takedown Avg (15 min)
3.40
W/L/W/W/W
Win/Loss (Last 5)
W/W/W/L/W

 

UFC 300: Main Card Breakdown & Analysis

From a statistical standpoint, striking output, grappling, and even knockdown percentages place this contest as an even battle. However, a +180 on Oliveira doesn’t represent this stance, as most bettors are clearly banking on age, wrestling, and hype over experience and finishing ability.

With the most post-fight bonuses (19) and submission wins (16) in UFC history, you’d be a fool to underestimate Oliveira, who has evolved into one of the most dangerous fighters to ever step in the octagon despite his early career to complications.

Everyone knows Oliveira’s ground game—it’s second to none, as he’ll throw up smooth submission attempts no matter where he’s positioned on the mat. However, it’s the evolution of his striking game that has really caught on. We have a confident, Muay Thai stance that sees him generate power from the ground up while also utilizing devasting knees.

Tsarukyan presents a wrestling base as his takedowns can be relentless, with sheer strength and pressure in top control. His striking has looked great versus specific styles, but honestly, I wasn’t impressed with his wilding attempts versus Gamrot, so it’s difficult not to give Oliveira the edge in striking abilities this weekend.

The question is, will Tsarukyan play in Oliveira’s guard? Is he confident enough, and does he have enough experience to really overcome the Brazilian’s masterful skill set? A betting man doesn’t fade Oliveira versus an inexperienced competitor. While we could see a similar situation as with Volkanovski versus Topuria, where the torch was passed, it could also emulate UFC 299, where Dustin Poirier sent a divisional newcomer in Benoit Saint-Denis packing.

 

Oliviera vs Tsarukyan Prediction:

UFC 300 Best Bet: Over 1 ½ Rounds (-130)

For the reasoning above, I’d much rather shift our UFC expert picks to the total. It’s currently set at 1 ½ rounds, and because Oliveira is a wild finisher, we’re receiving a respectable price on such a short time frame.

Neither fighter has displayed durability complications lately. Yes, Oliveira has been on wobbly legs at some point during most of his contests, but this has been against well-skilled striking technicians, and he’s renowned for his recovery. I don’t believe Tsarukyan owns the offensive striking skills to cause the former champ problems early, and I can envision a few grappling scenarios causing the clock to wind down.

It might become a sportsbook trap, and it’s certainly going to be a sweat, but we’re banking on both men’s defensive grappling, keeping this contest going to at least the second half of the second round. From there on out, however, I don’t expect to see this one reach the final seconds of the third round.

 

 

Questions of the Day

How Many Stoppage Wins Does Tsarukyan Have?


Arman Tsarukyan has won 14 of his 24 professional MMA bouts via KO/TKO or submission, but only four of his 10 UFC bouts saw him win via stoppage.

What’s the Moneyline Price on Charles Oliveira?


Oliveira is no stranger to being the betting underdog, and at UFC 300 this weekend, he’ll enter with a +180 price tag.

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