UFC 305 Perfect Prop Predictions: Two Totals to Help You Cash Down Under

· Aug 16 - 6 minutes read

Will Junior Tafa and Valter Walker provide an early stoppage that’s expected by most heavyweight competitors?
Can Jack Jenkins live up to his -700 price tag and make quick work of Herbert Burns?
The answers lie within our favorite MMA prop bets and best UFC odds from BetUS Sportsbook.

Another week of octagon action is upon us, but UFC 305 in Perth, Australia, this Saturday isn’t going to hit right without some proposition wagers!

UFC 305 Perfect Prop Predictions: Two Totals to Help You Cash Down Under — Junior Tafa -Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

Don’t worry, I’ve got you covered! As usual, I’m back to share my expert MMA analysis. I’ve gathered a collection of prop bets that I believe hold a greater probability of cashing than what the oddsmakers suggest.

Continue reading to find my perfect prop predictions for UFC 305, including the latest UFC odds presented by BetUS Sportsbook.

It’s been a minute since we seen these fighters take the Octagon 👀#UFC305 | Saturday, 10 ET on ESPN+ PPV 🍿 pic.twitter.com/I7KPsLE7II

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) August 15, 2024

UFC 305 Event Information

Date & Time: Saturday, August. 3, 2024 – 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
Main Event Bout: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
Co-Main Event Bout: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
Scheduled Fights: 12
Biggest UFC 305 Betting Favorite: Tom Nolan @ -1200
Biggest UFC 305 Betting Underdog: Alex Reyes @ +650

Best Prop Bets for UFC 305

Valter Walker vs. Junior Tafa: No Knockouts Round Here

Two of Earth’s most thrilling heavyweight fighters will go to war at UFC 305, but they aren’t named Valter Walker or Junior Tafa. However, we are presented with a fight that boasts the epitome of striker versus grappler matchup, and whoever can dictate where the fight takes place will certainly walk out of the RAC Arena victorious.

Walker is no Dagestani, but he once left Brazil for Russia and never returned. This is where he mastered a wrestling skill set, and while he’s no Khabib, it’s an in-cage style that’s assisted him in collecting an 11-1 pro-MMA record.

Conversely, Tafa is a former kickboxer who doesn’t comprehend the word ‘wrestling.’ He hasn’t displayed the worst takedown defense during a short seven-fight MMA career, but the man isn’t getting up once he’s on his back!

Bet This Pick: Walker vs Tafa Over 1 ½ Rounds (-150)

Valter Walker fights this weekend. He is the younger brother of Johnny Walker as you can clearly make out in this clip 💀 pic.twitter.com/27c1rAX37S

— Odd🎱 (@mmaoddslol) April 5, 2024

Draining the Clock 101

Forget the UFC moneyline for a moment… Why does a heavyweight fight have slight juice (-145) on the over? Isn’t it supposed to be the other way around, you ask?

Well, in this instance, unless Walker has the lowest fight IQ on the planet – Spoiler, I don’t think he does – then he will wrestle early and often. In almost every single one of his eleven career wins, wrestling has been a factor, and he should be aware that striking with Tafa doesn’t end well.

Walker isn’t Brazilian this weekend; he’s Russian, and wrestling is the only way. Tafa is durable, and frustration will set in early; all the while, the clock will drain, and before we know it, the over 1 ½ rounds are cashing our total ticket!

Walker vs. Tafa Betting Trends

Walker has seen over 1 ½ rounds in 8 of his previous 9 MMA fights
Walker has never lost via KO/TKO or submission
Tafa has gone over 1 ½ rounds in 50% of his pro-MMA bouts

UFC Betting Fans: Bet $200 & Get a $450 Bonus on your first time deposit!

Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns: Fade the Pillow Chin

He might be the brother of welterweight great Gilbert Burns, but Herbert’s career to date is polar opposite to that of his sibling. In fact, he’ll enter Perth this weekend on a three-fight losing streak, with each one of those losses ending via KO/TKO.

Now I know that MMA math isn’t the evidence you want me to provide when handicapping bouts, and if you watched Herbert knee Nate Landwehr from the clinch, you’d question if that fight was in an alternative universe. But facts are facts, and while the Brazilian can give some high energy and output for the first few minutes, this guy fades rapidly and is lucky to be a member of the UFC roster.

Jack Jenkins is no Chuck Liddell, but the man can throw down when needed. He lost to a durable and well-skilled Chepe Mariscal last time out. Still, Saturday’s matchmaking is handing him victory on a platter, as he’s arguably facing one of the least desirable fighters at 145lbs.

Bet on Jack Jenkins to Win in Round 1 and Round 2 Here!

What are your expectations for “Phar” Jack Jenkins in his return at #UFC305
pic.twitter.com/HeAQeGmm3M

— Liam Picks Fights (@LiamPicksFights) August 15, 2024

Place 0.5u On Jenkins in Round 2/3

Unfortunately, the MMA odds reflect Herbert’s durability and questionable cardio. So, we have to get creative. If you place 0.5u on Jenkins to win in rounds 2 and 3, plus money guarantees a profit. We need Jenkins to finish the fight in either round, which he can do.

After weathering an early storm, it should be Jenkins’s fight to lose, and as a preferred striker, he might have an open punching bag beyond the first round.

Herbert might have enough to last five minutes, but beyond this, as we’ve seen repeatedly, he’s prone to wilt, and wilt he will. Therefore, backing Jenkins to win in rounds 2 or 3 feels like the value play.