UFC 306 Odds: Perfect Prop Picks for Sept 14 at The Sphere

Don’t worry, Riyadh Season Noche UFC, aka UFC 306, has ten bangers and several noteworthy betting odds worth diving into, and I’m back again to share my expert MMA opinion on this weekend’s card, which is headlined by Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.

Continue reading to discover the perfect prop predictions for Saturday’s UFC card, including the latest UFC odds presented by BetUS.

Is it Saturday yet??@SugaSeanMMA vs @MerabDvalishvil

[ #UFC306 at @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/k7U9oWejYw

— UFC (@ufc) September 13, 2024

UFC 306 Event Information

• Date & Time: Saturday, September. 14, 2024 – 07:30 p.m. ET  
• Location: The Sphere
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
• Co-Main Event Bout: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko III
• Scheduled Fights: 10
• Biggest UFC 306 Betting Favorite: Raul Rosas Jr. @ -1000
• Biggest UFC 306 Betting Underdog: Aoriqileng @ +600

2 Prop Bets for UFC 306

1. Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont: Go With Decision Win

Norma Dumont hasn’t been the most entertaining fighter to date, but she’s 7-2 in the UFC, and what she’s good at… she does it incredibly well. Most MMA enthusiasts know she’s a grappler, and her striking skill set has a lot to be desired, but when it comes to head movement, it’s been viable to avoid dangerous situations, and a blanket-style ground game has placed her on a four-fight win streak.

For Irene Aldana, she’s the opposite. Worryingly, for some, she doesn’t have the best takedown defense, but her ability to create space and physically force the fight back to a standing position has been noteworthy. Then, on the feet, she presents a blistering jab, varied combinations, and an ability to throw more strikes than her opponents, even in losing battles.

Bet on Irene Aldana to Win by Decision (+140)

Irene Aldana 🆚 Norma Dumont #NocheUFC

pic.twitter.com/bRbxehsQOL

— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) September 13, 2024

Mexican Hustle   

The MMA betting odds are split, and rightfully so. We have a cliché striker versus grappler matchup, and whoever’s game plan gets off will likely walk out victorious. That said, I cannot overlook the Mexican fighter in a contest with a good chance of going to a split decision. We know the judges will side with Mexicans at Noche UFC, so I believe Dumont needs a clear, dominant victory to get the dub, and I don’t see her achieving this.

Expect a close fight, but Aldana will provide the pace, volume, and most notable power strikes. Win or lose, Aldana has been a hustler in the cage and has always fought for our money. Outside of the takedowns, it’s her fight to lose, and as both ladies are as tough as nails, backing the Mexican to win on the scorecards presents a nice chunk of plus-money value.

Aldana vs. Dumont Betting Trends: 

• Dumont has gone the distance in 8 of her 9 of her UFC bouts
• Aldana has won 50% of her UFC bouts by decision
• Aldana has gone the distance in 4 of her last 7 UFC bouts

one of most criminally underrated fights in the last couple of years.

Aldana – Rosa was an absolute WAR.
hope Aldana – Dumont is the same. #NocheUFC pic.twitter.com/aTzkWMncrf

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) September 12, 2024

UFC Betting Fans: Bet $200 & Get a $450 Bonus on your first time deposit!

2. Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne: Bet the Over

Fading Mexican fighters at Noche UFC, particularly in contests that could be decided by judges, is a risky move. However, one underdog I envision having the potential to cause an upset is Ode Osbourne.

The Jamaican Sensation enters his weekend contest with Ronaldo Rodriguez as the betting underdog, and it’s easy to see why. He’s lost 3 of his last 5 UFC bouts and is returning to UFC 306 following back-to-back submission defeats. When you factor in Rodriguez’s submission ability, arguing the underdog position is difficult, but when we compare the strength of schedules, it’s the underdog who’s fought a significantly higher level of competition.

With lackluster offensive wrestling, I don’t envision Rodriguez having the skills to overcome Ode’s sprawling and scrambling ability. I worry about him in the later rounds with a questionable gas tank, but I believe we might see his best version as he faces the chance of being cut from the promotion with another loss. My UFC prediction on this fight is going over 2½ rounds.

Bet on Rodriguez vs Osbourne Over 2 ½ Rounds (+110)

Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode Osbourne just STOLE THE SHOW at the #NocheUFC press-conference 😭😭😭🔥#UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/AKzCA08u6C

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) September 13, 2024

Backing Durability and Experience   

The UFC betting odds show value on Osbourne as the dog, but I prefer the over 2 ½ rounds. Rodriguez is tough, and his chin has held up throughout his career. Without a clear path to victory, I do expect the dog to keep this one clean, on his feet, and remain cautious, and as a result, the clock will drain.

There are a lot of stoppage results on Rodriguez’s record, but whenever he’s facing noteworthy levels of opposition, he’s struggled to find the finish. Osbourne is no world-beater, but I do like his lateral movement, head movement, and defensive abilities outside of submission positions where I don’t even believe the fight will reach.

RODRIGUEZ vs OSBOURNE! #UFC306 is LIVE SATURDAY on @ESPNPlus! @riyadhseason #NocheUFC pic.twitter.com/9FpQ6IAvk9

— danawhite (@danawhite) September 13, 2024

My Two Favorite UFC 306 Prop Bets  

• Aldana by Decision (+140) 
• Rodriguez/Osbourne Over 2 ½ Rounds (+110) 

As always, make sure to check the latest UFC news before placing your wagers!

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

Take A Look At These Other UFC Special Articles

• Shevchenko vs. Grasso III Odds: My Bets Bets for UFC 306 9/14
• UFC 306 Predictions: Best Bets for Riyadh Season Noche – O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili 9/14

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