UFC 306 Predictions: Best Bets for Riyadh Season Noche – O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili 9/14

Mexican Independence Day is just around the corner, and with the nation’s historical background in combat sports, Dana White and the UFC will celebrate this important holiday by hosting a unique, one-off spectacle inside the Las Vegas Sphere.

Riyadh Season Noche UFC is stacked from top-to-bottom with Mexican MMA talent, but in the main event, ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili will shed blood, sweat, and tears when competing for the 135lb championship.

With that said, you know what time it is. We’re back again to dissect the main event festivities and provide our thoroughly researched analysis and UFC betting picks… Let’s get it!

It’s the fight week we’ve all been waiting for! 🌞#UFC306 LIVE from @SphereVegas

[ @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC | 10pmET/7pmPT | B2YB @BudLight ] pic.twitter.com/T6p2LBpJfh

— UFC (@ufc) September 9, 2024

UFC 306 Event Information

• Date & Time: Saturday, September. 14, 2024 – 07:30 p.m. ET
• Location: The Sphere, Las Vegas, Nevada
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
• Co-Main Event Bout: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
• Moneyline Probability: O’Malley – 57.4% (-135) Dvalishvili – 48.8% (+105)

O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Betting Odds

O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Betting Preview

‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley: They Say You’re a Superstar

He was just a skinny white kid with an afro and an undefeated record, but when Sean O’Malley punched his ticket into the UFC on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2017, we knew we had something special on our hands.

Behind the long 5-foot-11 frame for 135 pounds and sniper-like offensive striking skillset, ‘Suga’ began delivering masterclass performances every time he stepped in the octagon. Rainbow hair was introduced alongside an emphatic highlight reel, and a star was born…

With a 10-1-1 record, a knockout win over Aljamain Sterling to become the bantamweight champion, and a revenge loss over Marlon Vera in his first title defense, the ceiling for Sean O’Malley is high. Yet, aged just 29, the best could be to come.

This is genuinely such a beautiful sequence #UFC306 pic.twitter.com/mih0uqX6Us

— Mixed Martial Aus 🇦🇺 (@MixedMartialAus) September 6, 2024

Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili: Is This Machine Breakable?

We can run with the storyline that Merab Dvalishvili is seeking revenge for his friend and teammate, Aljamain Sterling. Still, without his buddy losing the title, he wouldn’t be entering a championship opportunity of his own. First and foremost, Merab will be fighting for himself at UFC 306, and with a ten-fight win streak stemming from 2018… deservingly so!

John Dodson, Cody Stamann, Marlon Moraes, Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo. That’s six former champions or title contenders that Merab has defeated en route to Noche UFC and his shot at gold; as we start to wonder, can anyone break this “Machine”?

He isn’t flashy; he doesn’t have the best highlight reel, and he’s far from glamorous, but as he’s proven time and time again, Merab is a machine that doesn’t stop when the cage door closes, and while the odds have since flipped, he opened as BetUS Sportsbook’s betting favorite for a reason!

⚡️UFC realeased a footage of how they made face to face in front of the Sphere between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili

🎥 @ufc ▫️ pic.twitter.com/nQ5VTiyOpC

— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) September 7, 2024

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili: The Tale of The Tape

UFC Betting Fans: Bet $200 & Get a $450 Bonus on your first time deposit!

Long Striker vs. Short Grappler

Despite owning an impressive resume of knockouts, O’Malley isn’t the kind of striker known for his blistering power or strength. He’s collected so many KO/TKO victories because he’s the complete package when fights play out from a standing position.

Speed kills, and ‘Suga’ is arguably one of the fastest at 135 lbs. Smooth footwork and an ability to strike from both stances are also checked, and perhaps most important is the diversity of shot selections he uses behind some of the best faints in the game. Jabs, hooks, uppercuts, low kicks, high kicks, and teep kicks will be utilized, and his ability to land those strikes precisely has been a work of art throughout his career.

I’ll ko merab in 2 pic.twitter.com/usXHQyNEqS

— Sean O’Malley (@SugaSeanMMA) July 2, 2024

We’re looking at a cliché striker versus grappler matchup, but Merab’s biggest threat isn’t wrestling; it’s cardio! He can spam takedowns for 25 minutes, and to be honest, he could probably continue for another five rounds. He presents a basic one-two straight combination on the feet, but his striking has a lot to be desired outside of that.

Concerningly for the challenger, and although he’s never lost by knockout, he’s been dropped by opponents so many times we’ve lost count. If anyone has the potential to hand Merab his first KO defeat, it’s O’Malley. It’s just a question of whether he can maintain top control long enough to avoid such situations.

⚡️ Jose Aldo defending all 16 takedown attempts from Merab Dvalishvili. pic.twitter.com/0BhGAmGtMM

— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) September 10, 2024

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Betting Trends

• O’Malley is undefeated in 18 of his 19 pro MMA bouts
• Merab has won just 1 of his 12 UFC bouts inside the distance
• Merab lost his first two UFC bouts to unranked opponents
• O’Malley has a five-inch height advantage over Merab
• Merab has been knocked down in 3 of his last 4 UFC bouts

UFC 306 Noche From a Betting Perspective

There’s a huge chance O’Malley will get taken down, but there’s a reason why Sterling, who was expected to win via the same game plan, couldn’t accomplish this… Movement! Stationary opponents who’re flat-footed don’t present much difficulty for wrestlers to shoot on, but ‘Suga’ isn’t that guy, and more worryingly, for those opposed to him, he will move well while throwing heat!

Merab is the least aggressive 135-pounder in the top 15 of the division, and with just one stoppage win in twelve UFC bouts, the champ won’t be concerned about a stoppage. Can we really envision Merab wrestling for 25 minutes and causing enough damage to dethrone O’Malley? I don’t think so…

Do I like the current -140 UFC odds on O’Malley? I certainly do. Yes, bettors on the fight might have missed the plus-money opening prices, but I’m going to make a bold statement in saying that Merab is one of the most lackluster title contenders in recent memory.

The Georgian has been knocked down by much slower, older, and less elusive strikers than O’Malley. Not to mention the fact that the champ might be oozing with confidence, knowing that his challenger doesn’t have great jiu-jitsu or knockout potential.

This is the dude that’s supposed to beat O’Malley??? pic.twitter.com/g8GVkQvs2f

— UFCStats💭 (@TheUFCStats) September 9, 2024

I genuinely believe this is O’Malley’s fight to lose, and added rumors like Merab having staff are only playing on our side. The moneyline price is fair. I love this as a straight play, and I’m also not opposed to sprinkling the KO-prop because of how terrible Dvalishvili’s head movement and defensive striking awareness are.

Bet on Sean O’Malley Moneyline (-140)

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili UFC Predictions

In this UFC bantamweight championship matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that Merab will fly out of the gate hunting takedowns. While he might find some success here, O’Malley’s speed and footwork will be enough to keep this fight standing more often than not, as a kill shot KO will arrive before we see a fourth round.

As always, make sure to check the latest UFC news before placing your bets!

Potential Wagers from an O’Malley Round 3 KO/TKO:

• O’Malley Moneyline [-140]
• O’Malley by KO/TKO [+175]
• Under 4 ½ Rounds [-105]
• Will Round 4 Start/No [+170]

Bet on Any of These UFC 306 Picks at BetUS Sportsbook!

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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• UFC 306 Odds: Perfect Prop Picks for Sept 14 at The Sphere
• Shevchenko vs. Grasso III Odds: My Bets Bets for UFC 306 9/14

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