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UFC 307 Odds: Best Bets for Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista 10/5

  • UFC legend and former featherweight king Jose Aldo will make his 21st octagon appearance this Saturday, but how much fight is left in the old dog?
  • Mario Bautista doesn’t have half the experience of his UFC 307 foe, but a passing-of-the-guard moment could arise for the MMA Lab product who’s riding a 6-fight win streak.
  • Discover the best UFC 307 betting odds at BetUS Sportsbook.

 

Just when you thought ‘The King of Rio’ had completed it and sailed into the sunset, the beloved Brazilian and former featherweight champ returned as a bantamweight earlier this year for one more run. Now, after notching himself back into the win column, it’s business in the octagon as usual, to face another relatively unknown opponent who’s looking to make a name for everything he’s worked for.

UFC 307 Odds: Best Bets for Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista 10/5
Jose Aldo of Brazil-Alex Goodlett/Getty Images/AFP

UFC 307 this Saturday will be Mario Bautista’s most significant night yet, but of course, he needs to get through Jose Aldo. Can he? That’s a question I’ll answer today, so join me as I dissect this upcoming main card clash and find the best Aldo vs Bautista betting picks.

Aldo vs Bautista Fight Information

  • Fight: Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista
  • Date/Time: Saturday, October. 5, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
  • Aldo vs Bautista Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

 

Aldo vs Bautista Betting Odds

Aldo
Bautista
Ev
Moneyline
-130
-300
Total Fights Lines
+225

 

Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista Betting Preview

Jose Aldo: The King of Rio

It’s rare to witness fighters coming out of retirement, even more so when said fighters exit the sport with commendable accolades and a decorated career. So, when Jose Aldo retired from the sport in 2022 and announced his return earlier this year, the MMA betting community was collectively gassed up as we watched him piece up Jonathan Martinez to collect a unanimous decision.

The former featherweight champ returns to UFC 307 with a 3-3 record at 135lbs, and while we might never see the man who once battered the entire 145 division for several years, even an Aldo that’s 50% of his former self is an absolute savage in the cage and a problem for anyone!

Mario Bautista Wants the Torch

He’s a bit long in the tooth to label a ‘prospect,’ but the 8-2 UFC record of Mario Bautista certainly doesn’t present a pro tenure in the octagon that’s quite earned veteran status. With six consecutive wins and three submission victories during this streak, he’s undoubtedly leveled up since the promotional debut that saw him go 2-2 in his first four fights; we’re now just wondering how he fares versus the division’s elite.

We cannot knock Bautista’s run, although the opposition he’s faced thus far isn’t anything to run home about. In fact, the combined record of those six fighters since facing him stands at 0-6, hinting that he may have received an easier stretch of opponents than most of his peers.

However, the most challenging test of Bautista’s career awaits, and to claim a name like Aldo on the win column of his record could boost his stock instantly. And who knows, should he claim victory over the ‘King of Rio,’ there’s a chance he’ll be one or two wins away from receiving a bantamweight title opportunity.

 

Aldo vs. Bautista: The Tale of The Tape

Jose Aldo
Mario Bautista
Brazil
Country
USA
38
Age 
31
32-8-0 
Pro Record (Win/Loss)
14-2-0
16 KOs, 2 Submissions 
KO/Submission
3 KOs, 6 Submissions
5’7” 
Height 
5’9” 
70.0”
Reach 
69.0” 
14:14 
Avg Fight Time 
8:40 
0.4
Knockdown Avg (15 min)
0.17
3.63
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min
5.69 
0.51
Takedown Avg (15 min)
2.25
W/L/W/W/W
Win/Loss (Last 5)
W/W/W/W/W

Aldo vs Bautista: Skillset Analysis

The Jose Aldo of today isn’t the same man we once knew, and to be honest, his evolution in certain areas of MMA is why he’s still able to compete at the age of 38. One of which is defense, specifically in the striking realm. He might be older and slightly slower, but landing clean, precise shots on Aldo has proved difficult because he’s a constantly moving target.

Looking at Aldo’s return earlier this year, Jonathan Martinez struggled to find the target due to the head movement and an incredibly tight guard. Now, once you couple this with excellent counterstriking behind some of the best boxing offensive at 135 pounds and a brutal leg-kicking game, you have a veteran fighter who isn’t an easy puzzle to solve.

Opposite Aldo, we have Bautista, who is the exact opposite of cool, calm, collective, and defensive. He’s a non-stop pressure fighter in the standup, mixes his punches and kicks well before, more often than not, seeks a takedown where he’s most comfortable, working transitions, and looking to sink in a submission.

Yes, Bautista’s overwhelming pressure has assisted him in collecting points via strikes, but his wrestling and grappling have been one of his biggest strengths to date. This, however, could be a problem because even the wrestling machine and current bantamweight champ Merab Dvalishvili couldn’t overcome Aldo’s takedown defense.

Let’s look at some Also vs Bautista betting trends to make the best UFC predictions for the fight:

  • Aldo has never lost to a fighter ranked outside the top-5 rankings of any division
  • When combining his boxing and MMA record, Aldo is unbeaten in 4 consecutive bouts
  • Aldo has never been submitted in the UFC, and he’s 10-3 when going the distance
  • Bautista’s only fight versus a top-ranked opponent resulted in defeat (Cory Sandhagen)

 

Best Pick for Aldo vs. Bautista

I don’t believe Bautista’s pressure game in the striking realm is enough to overwhelm Aldo, especially as the Brazilian has presented such a calm, defensive, and confident counterstriking game at the tail end of his career. In addition, the leg kicks of Aldo might be the perfect deterrent to Bautista’s high energy, and when he’s more than likely going to struggle with any form of takedown offense, how can you not favor the former featherweight champ in a striking war?

Skill sets aside, Aldo has never lost to a fighter who isn’t a current or former champion or who hasn’t been a No.1 contender. Some would even argue that he’s fighting down the rankings by defeating Martinez to then face Bautista. And let’s not forget, Martinez was also a fighter working through the rankings with a six-fight win streak until Aldo put a stop to that streak, and the names on his streak were also significantly more notable than that of Bautista.

The best factor surrounding everything we’ve discussed is that UFC odds on Aldo place him as a +110 underdog. At 38 years old, durability and speed become a concern, but this legend didn’t display any of that last time out, and the oddsmakers are still giving us plus money again. Therefore, and in my humble opinion, the Aldo moneyline is a no-brainer choice.

Bet This Pick: Jose Aldo Moneyline (Ev)

Always check the latest UFC news before placing your bets!

 

Questions Of The Day

What’s the UFC 307 main card schedule?


-Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout)
-Raquel Pennington vs. Juliana Pena (UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title Bout)
-Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista (UFC Bantamweight Bout)
-Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira(UFC Women’s Bantamweight Bout)
-Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland(UFC Middleweight Bout).

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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