UFC 309 Predictions: Best Betting Picks for Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic 11/16

It’s the UFC heavyweight title fight we wanted in 2021 but a clash of legends that we’ll tune in for no matter what year, month, or day it is.

Jon Jones, two-division titlist and current heavyweight champ, prepares to slug it out with the former two-time heavyweight titleholder and the man who owns the most consecutive title defenses in UFC heavyweight division history (3), Stipe Miocic.

It’s a damn shame that the interim and rightful No.1 contender Tom Aspinall isn’t headlining UFC 309 this weekend. Still, Jones versus Miocic is a consolation we can get behind, especially from a UFC betting perspective!

UFC 309 Event Information

• Date/Time: Saturday, November. 16, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic
• Co-Main Event Bout: Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler
• Moneyline Probability: Jones – 87.5% (-700) Miocic – 18.2% (+450)

Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Betting Preview

Jon “Bones” Jones: Dana White’s GOAT

On paper, Jon Jones is the greatest mixed martial artist in UFC history. An undefeated record (1 DQ for a rule that’s now legal), championship wins in two divisions (205lbs, heavyweight), and a 14-year tenure presenting successes over some of the most recognizable names in the sport.

Sadly, only Dana White and about 1% of the MMA community are currently labeling the Rochester, New York-born legend as the GOAT of MMA. This is because Jones’ career has taken a slight downturn since 2019, with some suspect results and decision-making.

Jones tested positives for PEDs and had his rematch win against Daniel Cormier overturned, barely got through Anthony Smith, took a one-legged Thiago Santos to split decision, and in the eyes of many, lost to Dominick Reyes despite the judges’ giving him a unanimous victory. These occurrences, along with the ducking of Tom Aspinall and a three-year wait to switch weight classes, have dampened the legacy of “Bones,” and a win versus the 42-year-old Stipe won’t amend it.

The moment he became a TWO-DIVISION CHAMP 🏆🏆@JonnyBones defends his HW title THIS WEEKEND at #UFC309! pic.twitter.com/5mZvXEe9Dd

— UFC (@ufc) November 11, 2024

Stipe Miocic: Legends Never Die

He’s far from holding the credentials of his weekend opponent, but Stipe Miocic, former two-time UFC heavyweight champ and the man to hold said championship longer than any other fighter in the UFC’s 30-plus-year history has etched his name into the MMA history books and Saturday’s long-awaited return, at the very least, delivers an intriguing spectacle.

The elephant in the room surrounds Miocic’s capabilities as of 2024. His exit from the promotion in 2021 saw Francis Ngannou flatline him within two rounds, thus resulting in an absence from the octagon for over three straight years. Before this, he’d fought the same opponent, Daniel Cormier, for three consecutive years, and despite winning the trilogy (2-1), he hasn’t regularly fought a diverse stretch of opponents since 2016.

You should never doubt a legend, and legends never die. However, aged 42, with years away from the cage and returning from a brutal knockout, how much does Miocic really have left to give?

Do you think Stipe Miocic will retire this weekend?#UFC309 pic.twitter.com/nwxgkSVTSb

— Verdict (@VerdictMMA) November 11, 2024

Jones vs Miocic: The Tale of The Tape

Inside the Octagon: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Skillset Analysis

Jon Jones: Cherry Picking

Jon Jones hand-picking Ciryl Gane presented an opponent with clear grappling deficiencies, which paid off. Jones opting to mention Alex Pereira’s name instead of Aspinall delivers an identical story where he’ll hold a significant wrestling/grappling advantage. To his credit, though, Miocic is the most diverse and well-rounded opponent of them all, but here’s the kicker: Miocic won’t be close to performing on the level he once did, and after such a long layoff, we cannot predict if he’ll have anything left in terms of MMA warfare.

Although he’s also past his prime, Jones is arguably capable of hanging with today’s top-ranked fighters – see Ciryl Gane’s fight. While we cannot predict his game plan, it’s safe to say that he should hold advantages in all areas versus a significantly slower, older, and less durable Miocic.

Tom Aspinall breaks down the fighting style of Jon Jones

“You can’t deny that Jon Jones is one of the best MMA fighters ever.”

VIA | @ufcontnt #UFC309 #UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/algIjIlM3A

— FEDZ_MMA (@Fedzmma) November 10, 2024

Stipe Miocic: Beyond His Prime

Prime Miocic would’ve been a serious threat to Jones’ legacy. Crips boxing, fight-ending power, and a background in wrestling capable of hanging with the best of them presented a super fight back in 2020 where the betting odds wouldn’t have been so wide compared to those of today.

Unfortunately, it’s 2024, and we have no idea how much Miocic has trained since his last fight in 2021. Father time, historically, catches up with everyone, and following a career involving wars with Ngannou and Cormier tailed by three years and 8 months of inactivity, it doesn’t seem likely that we’re going to see a rejuvenated, better-than-ever version of the former champ.

He won the heavyweight title in an unforgettable way 🤩@StipeMiocic returns Saturday night looking to become the heavyweight champ once again! #UFC309 pic.twitter.com/6kr8F2z8St

— UFC (@ufc) November 11, 2024

Jones vs Miocic Betting Trends

Let’s check some Jone Jones vs Stipe Miocic betting trends:

• Miocic hasn’t won a UFC bout since August 2020
• Miocic has lost 2 of his previous 4 UFC bouts by KO/TKO
• Jones won his heavyweight debut in the first round
• Jones has won 11 of his 23 UFC bouts inside the distance

Jones vs Miocic Betting Prediction

I don’t need to beat around the bush here; the cat’s out of the bag. Jones isn’t going to lose at UFC 309, and the implied probability of 87.5% is some incredibly strong supporting evidence. If Miocic weren’t such an OG with a record heavyweight title reign, the UFC betting line would be even wider, and I wouldn’t be surprised if “Bones” sends his opponent into permanent retirement with a lopsided victory.

Do I like the current -700 UFC odds on Jones? Not really. Nobody wants to pay juice, especially when he wins this fight 99 times out of 100. That said, I have a funny feeling that Miocic, who displayed early signs of being washed in 2021, is primed to get flatlined in this spot, as the much more athletic, speedier fighter in Jones will find a KO/TKO inside the first two rounds.

My Best Bet: Jon Jones by Knockout (+125)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

Take A Look At These Other 2 UFC Betting Picks Articles:

• Paul Craig vs Bo Nickal UFC Picks: Bet Nickal to Win by KO/TKO 11/16.
• Chandler vs Oliveira UFC Picks: Bet This Fight to Finish Early 11/16.

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