UFC 309 Prop Picks: 2 Best Bets for 11/16

· Nov 15 - 6 minutes read

Check out all the Jim Miller vs Damon Jackson betting lines for the preliminary card.
A skilled David Onama returns, but will his unknown debutant opponent prove difficult?
Find the best UFC prop odds at BetUS sportsbook.

Another week of octagon action awaits, although pay-per-view cards just aren’t the same without some proposition wagers to boost the bankroll!

UFC 309 Perfect Prop Picks for 11/16 — Jim Miller - Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images/AFP

Fear not: I’m here to answer your prayers and to share my UFC expert picks on this weekend’s UFC 309 card, headlined by a heavyweight title bout between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic.

Continue reading to discover the perfect prop predictions for Saturday’s UFC card.

MSG is going to be ROCKING on Saturday night 🗽 #UFC309 pic.twitter.com/FgJikWGbU7

— Uncrowned (@uncrownedcombat) November 14, 2024

UFC 309 Information

Date and Time: Saturday, Nov. 16, 06:00 p.m. ET
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York
How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
Main Event Bout: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic
Co-Main Event Bout: Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler
Scheduled Fights: 13
Biggest UFC 309 Betting Favorite: Bo Nickal -1400
Biggest UFC 309 Betting Underdog: Paul Craig +700

Top 2 Prop Bets for UFC 309

1. Jim Miller vs Damon Jackson: Oldies Going the Distance

It’s quite remarkable that I’ve been watching Jim Miller slug it out in the octagon for 16 consecutive years. It makes me feel old, but more to point out, “A-10” is old, and it begs the question: How much does he have left to give?

Having competed in the UFC on 44 occasions and despite winning two of his last three bouts, Miller’s body wear will start to show sooner rather than later. Let’s not forget the guy also has Lyme disease, which does make his UFC run even more impressive. So, is it time for Miller to hang it up? That’s his decision, and although you cannot begin blindly fading him in online betting, I struggle to envision him getting through a relatively competitive Damon Jackson.

Does this mean we’re going to fade Miller? Hell no. Jackson, age 36, is no spring chicken himself, and the old dog always lives for an upset. Stylistically, we have two Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts who will both present lethargic output in striking exchanges, with another commonality that also presents a wager option: toughness!

Bet On Fight Goes the Distance/Yes [-125]

Reporting for his 45th, YEAH THAT’S RIGHT, 45th UFC fight week 👏#UFC309 | @JimMiller_155 pic.twitter.com/nJAJaWfc6b

— UFC (@ufc) November 12, 2024

Respect Your Elders

We’re not looking toward the sides in this contest. Instead, we’re backing durability and two styles that have the potential to cancel each other out with our UFC predictions. While I believe Miller has more power and a better chance of winning a striking war, it wouldn’t be surprising to see these two grapple more often than not, draining the clock.

Moreover, Miller is a tough old fighter. The last person to finish him was Charles Oliveira in 2018. Since that date, he’s competed 13 times without a knockout or submission loss, while Jackson has only been stopped in the UFC by two of the hardest hitters in Ilia Topuria and Dan Ige.

Jackson vs Miller Betting Trends:

Miller has gone the distance in 20 UFC bouts
Jackson has gone the distance in his 3 most recent UFC appearances
Miller hasn’t been stopped by KO or submission since 2018

The legend of Jim Miller is unmatched 👏

Watch #UFC309 on ESPN+/Hulu/FX on Nov. 16 at 6 PM ET 🍿 pic.twitter.com/wwMIypTK6v

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 8, 2024

2. Onama vs Romero: Who the Fook is That Guy?

In the famous words of Conor McGregor: “Who the fook is that guy?”

With an 8-3-1 pro-MMA record, Roberto Romero has been called up on short notice to face a competitor in David Onama, who has the talents to hold his own in the featherweight division’s top-15 rankings.

I’m unsure about the UFC’s decision to usher Romero into the organization. Still, they must have been vying for a 13-fight card, and as Lucas Almeida withdrew, Romero’s inexperienced and mediocre talents must have been the only option.

Please make no mistake about it: Onama, with UFC odds of -1200, warrants such a price versus this level of opposition. He will dictate where this fight occurs and hold the advantage in all areas, whether clinched, grappling, wrestling or striking.

Here’s the kick, though. Romero’s regional scene talents aren’t impressive, but the guy is Mexican, so you already know he can take a punch.

🚨| Lucas Almeida is OUT. Roberto Romero steps in to take on David Onama at #UFC309 on November 16th.
[first rep. @TeamIridiumISA] pic.twitter.com/YCo88jHvHx

— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) November 13, 2024

Romero’s Toughness: Betting on Mexican Durability

After thorough analysis and tireless hours spent handicapping these two fighters, I ripped up all my notes and decided to bet on Romero’s Mexican chin. Guys from this part of the world do not crumble, and as the current total is set at 1 ½ rounds, backing the over feels like a gift.

Competing for Combate Global, Romero hasn’t faced or defeated anyone of significance. In fact, he’s lost to a handful of questionable levels of talent. However, he’s never been stopped, and that’s because he’s Mexican.

I do not doubt Onama will molly-whop Romero from pillar to post, but getting this kid out of the octagon within the first seven minutes won’t be easy. A stoppage could arrive, but I’m banking on that Mexican toughness and spirit to take this fight into the later rounds in my UFC 309 prop picks.

Bet On Over 1 ½ Rounds [-135]

Onama vs Romero Betting Trends:

Romero has never been finished in his pro-MMA career
Onama has gone the distance in 50% of his UFC bouts
Onama has seen over 1 ½ rounds in 5 of his 6 UFC bouts

David Onama gets the unanimous decision over Jonathan Pearce #UFCVegas91 pic.twitter.com/42tQBtPOls

— COMBAT SPORTS TODAY (@CSTodayNews) April 27, 2024

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