UFC 310 Fight Card: Pantoja vs Asakura Preview, Moneyline Pick and Predictions for Dec 7

We’re still 20ish days out from Santa Claus visiting, but UFC fans will receive an early Christmas present when UFC 310 arrives at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend. You might be tempted to re-run your favorite festive flicks on Saturday, but stop right there because Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura are slugging it out for the flyweight title is going to be a movie!

With that said, you already know what time it is: I’m back to analyze the latest UFC odds and provide you with what I believe to be the best bets for the UFC 310 main event flyweight title bout! Let’s get it!

One last UFC PPV for 2024 🔥 #UFC310 pic.twitter.com/3j6Jw6dmie

— DiaztwinsMMA (@DiaztwinsMMA) December 2, 2024

UFC 310 Event Information

• Date & Time: Saturday, December. 7, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
• Co-Main Event Bout: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Garry
• Moneyline Probability: Pantoja – 73% (-270) Asakura – 31.7% (+215)

Asakura vs Pantoja Betting Analysis

Alexandre Pantoja: Is ‘The Cannibal’ Ready to Feast?

Alexandre, ‘The Cannibal’ Pantoja, returns to the octagon this Saturday behind a six-fight win streak that includes a flyweight championship title win over Brandon Moreno and two back-to-back defenses of said title. However, I can’t help but think something is missing.

I don’t know if it is aura and dramatics that we’ve become accustomed to seeing from UFC champions. That said, despite being quite the dominant fighter since 2021, Pantoja still doesn’t feel like a legitimate champion for some strange reason.

UFC diehards will know exactly the feeling I’m describing, and I believe Dana White and Co. do, too. Last time out, they placed him versus a No.8 ranked contender, and now they’re handing him a debutant to defend his title against. It feels like the promotion is attempting to schedule the Brazilian versus opponents they believe hold an advantage while simultaneously showing him zero respect by putting him against non-deserving contenders. This didn’t go to plan in the Steve Erceg bout, but if there’s an ideological champion the UFC would love to have at 125lbs, Pantoja’s UFC 310 foe would be that guy!

If Kai Asakura does Pantoja like this weekend,I’m done😭 pic.twitter.com/caqVm83rQC

— Pollmma (@poll_mma) December 1, 2024

Kai Asakura: A Debut Title Fight!?

Making a UFC debut and receiving a title opportunity is incredibly rare. More to the point, throughout history, no debutant has ever won the championship, and this trend doesn’t look good for this weekend’s flyweight championship challenger.

There is, however, something unique about Kai Asakura, and it isn’t just the millions of followers he’s garnered across social media platforms. The Japanese standout is a former RIZIN star, he’s defeated some of the best names outside of the UFC, and in terms of finishing ability, he could very well be the most dangerous foe Pantoja has faced since Manel Kape.

I’ve allowed my conspiracy theory thoughts to overlook competitors in the past, and it hasn’t always worked, but this fight, in particular, is smelling fishy because you and I both know Asakura would be a much more desirable champion for the UFC than the quiet, reserved, and relatively unknown Pantoja.

Is the fix in? Does the UFC know something we don’t? BetUS Sportsbook isn’t biting on Asakura’s abilities and has him positioned as a considerable underdog, but is this the overlooked bait we should bite on?

One of Kai Asakura’s most devastating finishes wasn’t even a KO, it was what he did to Ulka Sasaki’s jaw pic.twitter.com/JWEmjqj5rD

— caposa (@Grabaka_Hitman) November 23, 2024

Asakura vs Pantoja: The Tale of The Tape

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Asakura vs Pantoja: Skillset Breakdown

A Well-Rounded Flyweight Champ

Striking and grappling have been displayed throughout Pantoja’s career, and this well-rounded skill set has allowed him to fulfill his dream of becoming a champion. Unfortunately, in his title opportunity and since becoming the champion, none of his performances have made us believe he’s unbeatable. His title win over Moreno could’ve gone either way. He did run through Brandon Royval, but then a No.8-ranked Steve Erceg gave him a tough outing, so it isn’t easy to believe the elite skills of the Brazilian champ are enough to stay atop this division for much longer.

This doesn’t mean he cannot overcome the likes of Asakura, but I anticipate the flyweight championship to be elsewhere by 2026, and should Pantoja want to trade with the Japanese newcomer, it might come sooner than we think.

We have to side with Pantoja on having a wrestling, grappling, and cardio edge, but whether he can get the fight to the ground is a different story. He must wrestle in this bout to utilize a cardio and grappling advantage. Still, versus Asakura, who’s significantly larger and has defeated elite bantamweights in the past, size could play a huge part in this fight by remaining on the feet.

I dont understand how people see this and still call Pantoja boring
pic.twitter.com/hlitqDbcx4

— 𝐘𝐚𝐳ko (@YazkoMotashobi) November 30, 2024

Size and Power Could Be the Difference-Maker

Asakura doesn’t have UFC experience, but he has been competing against world-class competition for a long time. He is predominantly a striker with unruly speed and power. Although he can sometimes present questionable defensive intelligence on the feet, I don’t believe Pantoja has the striking power to make this a serious concern.

Asakura will throw various strikes, all presenting a knockout-worthy amount of power. Watching him finish Juan Archuleta – an elite bantamweight – with a knee to the body was something to behold, not to mention that this was his second consecutive via a knee to the body. His kryptonite in his UFC debut would obviously be the grappling, but he’s shrugged off many takedown attempts in the past versus much larger foes, and it wouldn’t be surprising for UFC betting fans to see him achieve the same in this spot.

Fight week!!!!#UFC310 pic.twitter.com/xTIRZtiRmA

— 朝倉 海 Kai Asakura (@kai_1031_) December 2, 2024

Asakura vs Pantoja Betting Trends

• Asakura has won 16 of his 21 pro-MMA bouts inside the distance
• Asakura has won back-to-back fights via strikes to the body
• Pantoja is 9-0 versus top-10 UFC flyweights
• Pantoja held a 3-3 flyweight record before entering the top-10 rankings

Asakura vs Pantoja Prediction: Bet on Asakura ML (+210)

Although I’m proclaiming Pantoja to be the more well-rounded fighter in this contest, gut instinct tells me Asakura is live for the upset. I’d kick myself for overlooking the MMA odds at +210 for the Japanese star should he succeed in an upset, and as far as damage is concerned, he’s the man most likely to cause it.

Patience and waiting for the counter-striking moments to arrive will be key for Asakura. So long as he doesn’t let the bright lights of the UFC get to him, a calculated performance, as the much bigger and more powerful striker, puts him in a great position to become the first-ever UFC debutant to succeed in a title fight.

Bet This Pick: Asakura Moneyline (+210)

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