UFC 311 Prediction, Picks: Best Bets for Tsarukyan vs Makhachev on Jan 18
- Bet on Makhachev to win this fight at -370 odds.
- UFC 311 betting odds are now live at BetUS.
- Make bank with our top UFC 311 picks!
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Last week’s returning UFC schedule to kickstart 2025 was just the appetizer. UFC 311, live from Inglewood, California, is the entrée and, hopefully, a meal that we can all eat from the Tsarukyan vs Makhachev betting odds that are currently available.
As the first pay-per-view event of the year, Dana White and the UFC had no choice but to go all out. And boy, they’ve exceeded expectations. We have the likes of ‘Money’ Moicano, Jamahal Hill, Merab Dvalishvili, and Umar Nurmagomedov competing on the main card. Still, more importantly, one of the most anticipated rematches in lightweight division history as Islam Makhachev defends his 155lb gold against the formidable Arman Tsarukyan.
With Makhachev and Tsarukyan gearing up to deliver a fight of the ages, akin to their first octagon battle in 2019, it’s only right that I return to provide you with my complete breakdown, odds analysis, and the best UFC 311 betting picks!
FIIIIIIGHT WEEEEEEEK!!!!! #UFC311 is LIVE SATURDAY on @ESPNPlus PPV! pic.twitter.com/TweIoxoXZY
— danawhite (@danawhite) January 13, 2025
UFC 311 Event Information
- Date/Time: Saturday, January. 18, 2025 – 06:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Intuit Dome, Los Angeles, California
- How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass / Pay-Per-View
- Main Event Bout: Islam Makhachev vs. Armen Tsarukyan II
- Co-Main Event Bout: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
- Moneyline Probability: Makhachev – 80.2% (-405) Tsarukyan – 24.7% (+305)
Arman Tsarukyan vs Islam Makhachev Betting Preview
Islam Makhachev
He’s the UFC lightweight champion since defeating Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira in 2022, with a four-fight win streak as the titleholder, including wins over Alexander Volkanovski (twice) and Dustin Poirier. In 2025, two more title defenses would see the most dominant Russian since Khabib Nurmagomedov break the lightweight record for most title defenses, and with his sights also set on a potential move to welterweight, Islam Makhachev’s potential of becoming the greatest fighter in MMA history continues its ascension.
Perhaps most crucially of all regarding Makhachev’s accomplishments is the fact that he’s the current No.1-ranked pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. He sits above Jon Jones, Alex Pereira, and Ilia Topuria on the P4P list, thus making him the best fighter the UFC has to offer – on paper, at least.
Having already defeated three of the lightweight division’s top-five-ranked fighters in domineering fashion, finding viable opposition for Makhachev has been akin to finding post-Bill Belichick success for the New England Patriots: It just isn’t that simple. However, as many believe Arman Tsarukyan has the tools to test the champ like no other, and considering his rise to a 155lb No. 1 ranking since their first fight, UFC betting fans and critics alike sit with open arms for this elite-level rematch.
It’s been quite a journey for both Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan since their first fight in 2019 👀#UFC311 | Saturday, 10 PM ET | ESPN+ PPV 🍿 https://t.co/UQhSsdDFRH pic.twitter.com/HnVzgzCSlJ
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) January 13, 2025
Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan
It’s crazy to think that Arman Tsarukyan was just 23 years old when he made his UFC debut back in 2019. That said, a 13-1 record with impressive performances on the MMA regional scene undoubtedly gave him a well-earned position on the roster. It was just a shame that he was matched with such a force in Makhachev in his promotional debut.
Tsarukyan suffered a unanimous decision defeat to Makhachev in his debut, and as he watched the Russian go on to achieve championship glory, he’s silently worked his way through the rankings to earn a rematch. Only this time, lightweight gold is up for grabs, and Tsarukyan, collecting a 9-1 record since the first fight, is more experienced, seasoned, and more prepared than ever to shock the world and hand Makhachev just his second loss in 17 UFC bouts.
👀💸 Arman Tsarukyan said that after he wins the belt, he’ll fight ONLY for money:
“After I win the title, the sport thing is done. It’s gonna be just business… After this fight, when I’m the champion, I’m gonna only think about money fights.”
🎥 @pound4poundshow ▫️ pic.twitter.com/ve7FVBzj0e
— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) January 13, 2025
Makhachev’s Goal to Eliminate All Doubt
After reflecting on his first fight with Tsarukyan and ahead of this weekend’s rematch at UFC 311, Makhachev is ready to eliminate all doubt by emulating what he did in the Volkanovski rematch by finishing his opponent.
“I like to finish the old questions,” Makhachev told UFC news oulets. “When I fought Volk, I told everybody I had to finish the questions and finish him. That’s why, with the second fight, I was looking for the finish, to make everybody shut up.”
This combined record is insane. #UFC311 pic.twitter.com/1ENb2rcwC1
— ricky~dooby (@rick_doobs) January 12, 2025
Tsarukyan vs Makhachev: The Tale of The Tape
Inside the Octagon: Tsarukyan vs Makhachev Skillset Breakdown
Evolution Brings an Entirely New Fight
What makes this fight so interesting is the fact that Tsarukyan, in his UFC debut, took a fight to Makhachev that we’d rarely seen before, especially during grappling situations, where he did, in fact, become the first fighter to take Makhachev to the ground. While Makhachev did win all three rounds, it was far from domination over Tsarukyan like we’d previously seen – and has done – he does to most opponents.
Yes, Makhachev and Tsarukyan have tangled in the octagon once before, but a lot has changed since their first fight five years ago. Regarding the former, his wrestling is top-notch and, undoubtedly, the strongest tool in his arsenal, but it’s his striking that’s truly come on leaps and bounds – so much so that he’s given the likes of Volkanovski and Oliveira some serious kickback in the striking realm.
That said, it’s arguable that Tsarukyan has made even more improvements than the P4P No.1. Besides an ultra-close split decision defeat to Mateusz Gamrot, Armenia’s biggest MMA superstar has been perfect in the octagon since losing to Makhachev, claiming victory in nine fights.
Tsarukyan starched a top contender in Beniel Dariush while also becoming the first fighter to finish Joel Alvarez inside the distance. He’s obviously grown confident in his striking, not to mention he looks jacked and in the best shape of his life.
Le TRÈS TRÈS HAUT niveau 🔥🔥
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan pic.twitter.com/l4Bw277T3Y
— ARENA (@MMArena_) March 21, 2024
And Still…
Although Tsarukyan is arguably the most difficult challenge for any 155-pound fighter right now, and despite his clear evolution in the cage, it still feels impossible to fade Makhachev. It seems like Tsarukyan is the best lightweight in the world, so long as you’re ranking fighters without Makhachev in the mix and everything he does, the P4P king does it better.
Cardio and grappling throughout 25 minutes is where I truly believe Makhachev will excel. We saw Tsarukyan tire from the grappling in the first fight. Now, with 25 minutes on the clock, he’ll have to maintain a gas tank for five straight rounds while opposite an absolute wrestling machine with relentless physicality. In a nutshell, he might not be the best bet online.
Show me MOST well rounded fighter ever
I’ll start: (Islam Makhachev 🇷🇺) pic.twitter.com/c9nyHGuBpk
— Kenny Okoye🇳🇬 (@TruthfulUfcFan) January 14, 2025
Tsarukyan vs Makhachev Betting Trends
- Makhachev defeated Tsarukyan by unanimous decision in 2019
- Tsarukyan has won 9 UFC bouts since losing to Makhachev
- Makhachev has finished 7 of his previous 9 opponents since facing Tsarukyan
- Makhachev has lost just one of his 27 pro-MMA bouts
- Tsarukyan has lost just three of his 25 pro-MMA bouts
Tsarukyan vs Makhachev Expert Pick: Bet Makhachev ML
To be the champ, you have to beat the champ. To beat a champion like Makhachev, you really have to match his efficiency and to match said efficiency, Tsarukyan will need an iron-clad gas tank. I don’t envision this being the case, and after three or four rounds of battle, Russia’s finest will find complete control to steal the championship rounds or even find the potential of a late stoppage.
Do I like the current -370 UFC odds on Makhachev’s moneyline? Not really, but I also believe his elite skillset, unbreakable will, imposing physicality, relentless cardio, and five-round experience will be too much for the challenger, thus making a wager on his ML a credible betting position. Make sure to include it in your UFC parlay picks.
Bet This Pick: Makhachev ML (-370)
Other Tsarukyan vs Makhachev Predictions to Bet On
In this UFC lightweight championship matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that Makhachev’s relentless cardio and pressure-based style will eventually wear on Tsarukyan in the later rounds, as the champ will not only defend his title successfully but also become the first fighter to finish his opponent inside the distance [Round 5 rear-naked choke].
Potential Wagers from a Makhachev Round 5 Submission:
- Makhachev Moneyline [-370]
- Under 4.5 Rounds [+140]
- Makhachev Win By Submission [+300]
- Fight Goes the Distance/No [+105]
Questions of the Day
Who’s fighting on the UFC 311 main card?
- Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 [UFC Lightweight Title Bout]
- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov [UFC Bantamweight Title Bout]
- Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill [Light Heavyweight Bout]
- Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano [Lightweight Bout]
- Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder [Middleweight Bout]