UFC 311 Prop Picks: Bet on Prochazka vs Hill Going Under 1.5 Rounds Jan 18

· Jan 17 - 7 minutes read

Prochazka vs Hill Under 1.5 rounds tops our UFC 311 betting picks.
Bet on the Holland vs Ridder fight to not go the distance.
Make bank with our UFC picks! Join with our promo code HUDDLE125.

New year, new fights, new champions, new money! UFC 311 marks the first pay-per-view event of 2025, and while most of us are tackling our resolutions to adopt new and healthy habits, some things never change, as I’m back with the best prop bets I could muster up for Saturday’s octagon festivities!

UFC 311 Prop Picks: Bet on Prochazka vs Hill Going Under 1.5 Rounds Jan 18 — amahal Hill looks on after being defeated by Alex Pereira | Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP

As always, I’m here to share my expert MMA opinion on this weekend’s UFC fight card, UFC 311. The card is headlined by a lightweight championship bout between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan.

Continue reading to discover the perfect UFC 311 prop predictions, including the latest odds presented by BetUS.

We’re almost there boys #UFC311 pic.twitter.com/fKJ2ESK1nb

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) January 9, 2025

UFC 311 Information

Date & Time: Saturday, January. 18, 2025 – 06:00 p.m. ET
Location: Intuit Dome, Los Angeles, CA
How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass and PPV
Main Event Bout: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan II
Co-Main Event Bout: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Scheduled Fights: 14
Biggest UFC 311 Betting Favorite: Payton Talbott @ -1200
Biggest UFC 311 Betting Underdog: Raoni Barcelos @ +650

Stay updated! Make sure to check the latest UFC news before placing your bets.

Top 2 UFC 311 Prop Bets for Jan 18

1. Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder: Striker vs Grappler

Middleweight contenders kickstart the UFC 311 main card as everyone’s real-life hero, Kevin Holland, welcomes the Dutch grappling maestro, Reinier de Ridder, to the octagon.

Ridder, 34, was one of the dominant forces outside of the UFC, but late last year, the promotion acquired his services with much hype behind his name. However, the former ONE Championship, multi-time titleholder didn’t quite match said hype.

The UFC handed Ridder a layup in the eyes of many, but Gerald Meerschaert didn’t allow Ridder to have the standout debut performance he wanted. It was a sloppy mess from start to finish, but still, Ridder, as the crafty grappler that he is, did find a late arm triangle to stop the fight, and he’ll undoubtedly be looking for a cleaner showing this weekend in LA.

Reinier de Ridder predicts a “spectacular” first minute vs. Kevin Holland in the #UFC311 PPV opener. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/EQdVNkWmFN

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) January 15, 2025

Holland isn’t an easy fight for anyone, with 10 stoppage wins to his name throughout his UFC tenure thus far. That said, ‘Trailblazers’ 13-9 record proves that he’s beatable, and on an off-day, UFC betting fans know that his defensive grappling game has a lot to be desired.

Bet This Prop: Fight To Go The Distance/No [-190]

No Judges Required!

The biggest cause for concern regarding Ridder’s chance of success is his cardio. The man looked incredibly tired after one round with GM3, and we know Holland, for all his flaws, isn’t going to stop head-hunting.

For Holland, the problem is durability and grappling defense. He’s been the victim of four KO/TKO and submission losses to date, and when opposed to talented grapplers, he’s often found himself struggling for success.

I envision two potential scenarios from this bout: Ridder’s grappling swamps Holland, and the submission finish becomes inevitable. Or, Ridder’s cardio tanks again, and he becomes an easy KO/TKO win for Holland, who’ll be a much more dangerous threat in striking exchanges than what GM3 was.

Therefore, with excellent UFC betting odds of -190, betting this fight not to reach the scorecards makes a lot of sense. We have an ultra-dangerous grappler, Ridder, with fight-finishing submissions and questionable cardio, going against a well-rounded finisher in Holland, who has won 22 pro-MMA fights by KO/TKO or submission.

Holland vs Ridder Betting Trends

Holland has won 22 fights by KO/TKO or submission
Holland has lost 5 fights by KO/TKO or submission
Ridder has won 16 fights by KO/TKO or submission
Both of Ridder’s pro-MMA losses were by knockout

Reinier de Ridder puts Vitaly Bigdash out cold with an inverted triangle to defend his middleweight title at ONE 159 pic.twitter.com/axjmF7TIUg

— Will (@ChillemDafoe) July 22, 2022

2. Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill: Amped Up Violence

Two former light heavyweight champions do battle before UFC 311’s co-main and main event, thus proving just how stacked the fight card is! Those in question, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, are a couple of knockout lovers who’re guaranteed to deliver violence for as long as it lasts.

The moneyline betting odds are split on both fighters and rightfully so. It’s a challenging fight to break down from a predictive perspective, but if we’re judging them based on proof, Prochazka has fought and defeated higher-ranked opponents. However, Hill, whose heavy hands have seen him knock out four of his last five foes in winning outings, shouldn’t be overlooked.

Alex Pereira KO’s Jiri Prochazka (2024)

📸 @jeffbottari pic.twitter.com/5Vf8BsBwYF

— Fight Pics That Go Hard (@fightpicsgohard) June 30, 2024

Considering both fighters have a high clip of winning by knockout and an obvious love for striking, I wouldn’t expect much grappling in this bout. With more time spent in striking exchanges, especially with two knockout artists, the probability of stoppage heightens. For our UFC expert picks, we’re picking this fight to finish before the second round.

Bet This Prop: Under 1 ½ Rounds [+120]

Backing the Early Stoppage

With a gun to my head, I’m siding with Hill prevailing over the chaotic style of Prochazka. The latter is just too unpredictable and defensively questionable, whereas Hill is more precise, patient, and arguably more powerful regarding one-punch power.

Either way, picking a side is irrelevant for this week’s selection because we’re backing Prochazka’s jerky movement, unusual, striking selections, and risky style to once again find a finish or be finished early!

Prochazka isn’t a decision fighter. In fact, the judges were required in just one of his 41 pro-MMA fights to date. That’s 40 knockout or submission wins or victories Prochazka has encountered. When you realize that most of those bouts have ended in round one or two, coupled with Hill’s stopping power and history of ending fights quickly, the under 1 ½ rounds at plus money MMA odds feels like incredible betting value.