UFC 314 Prediction and Odds: Perfect Prop Picks for This Weekend for April 12

· Apr 10 - 5 minutes read

Bet on Dominick Reyes vs. Nikita Krylov to last over 1.5 rounds (-150)
Bet on Virna Jandiroba vs. Yan Xiaonan to go the distance (-165)
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Another week of octagon violence awaits, but those pay-per-view card festivities aren’t the same without some prop bets to feast our bankroll on at the UFC sportsbook.

UFC 314 Prediction and Odds: Perfect Prop Picks for This Weekend for April 10 — Alexander Volkanovski Fights | Gary a. Vasquez-imagn

You’re prayers have been answered; as your resident UFC expert, I’m here to share my best UFC props bets for this weekend’s UFC 314 fight card, headlined by a featherweight championship bout involving Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes.

Top 2 Prop Bets for UFC 314 Miami

1. Dominick Reyes vs Nikita Krylov Over 1.5 Rounds (-150)

Nikita Krylov is one of the most underrated UFC competitors on the roster, and that’s partly due to his inactivity over the years. The man’s still just 32 years old, and dare I say, he could be entering his prime years. But when you look at elite-level experience as a 205-pounder, is there a better resume (Emmanuel Newton, Fabio Maldonado, Jan Blachowicz, Glover Texeira, Magomed Ankalaev, and Alexander Gustafsson) on offer?

Then we have Domnick Reyes, who, for the first time since 2019, is riding a positive win streak. Watching him blast through Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith isn’t exactly something to run home about, and his durability has always been questioned, but when it comes to clean boxing offense and a newfound confidence, is the former championship contender ready to make another run?

🚨 Dominick Reyes vs. Nikita Krylov is set for UFC 314 in Miami, Florida on April 12th. (via @DamonMartin) pic.twitter.com/y610klBEKG

— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) January 24, 2025

The Jon Jones Killer

Reyes is most known for defeating Jon Jones. On paper, it will tell you otherwise, but the entire world was against the judges that night, and no matter what side of the fence you sit on, he gave ‘Bones Jones’ the toughest fight of his career. That said, the falloff post-Jones was real, which involved three consecutive knockout losses. He’s bounced back since, but at 35, does he have much left to give?

Then we have Krylov, who hasn’t been seen since 2023. Like, where has this dude been? He’s such a skilled fighter, but his goal for Saturday should be to avoid boxing exchanges, and I believe he could achieve this with some grappling.

The over 1 ½ rounds should appeal to bettors based on Krylov’s grappling potential. Reyes doesn’t get submitted, and on the feet is where he’ll thrive, so Krylov, as the intelligent fighter he is, should slow the clock with clinched situations. I wouldn’t be surprised by a late finish, but neither man has a long history of getting finished in the first seven minutes of fights in UFC betting.

Bet This Pick: Dominick Reyes vs. Nikita Krylov Over 1.5 Rounds (-150)

5 years ago, Jon Jones was taken to the brink of a loss by Dominick Reyes.

Reyes won the 1st round on all judges score cards.

Jones won the 4th and the 5th round on all judges score cards.

The 2nd and 3rd rounds were the disputed ones.pic.twitter.com/aATAzKSnDe

— MMA On Point (@OnPointMMA) February 8, 2025

2. Virna Jandiroba vs. Yan Xiaonan Goes the Distance (-165)

This one’s pretty simple; Virna Jandiroba has never been stopped inside the distance, and Yan Xiaonan’s only loss ITD was via KO/TKO. Jandiroba is a jiu-jitsu specialist with only one knockout win, while Yan has won her UFC bouts by decision, more often than not.

The MMA math checks out, neither woman will get knocked out or be submitted this weekend.

Did Yan go to sleep in her clash with Weili Zhang? Maybe, but she woke up, so we’ll ignore that. In all seriousness, we have a striker versus grappler matchup, with Jandiroba holding the latter advantage, where most of her bouts result in top control and damage from this position.

🚨 Yan Xionan vs. Virna Jandiroba is set for UFC 314 on April 12th in Miami, Florida as a title eliminator bout. (via @AgFight) pic.twitter.com/wQc8K2pOyZ

— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) January 24, 2025

Death, Taxes, and WMMA UFC Props

You have to appreciate Jandiroba’s durability, as she’s never been stopped via KO/TKO or submission. She’s often the lesser-talented striker, but her spammed takedowns and top control mitigate this issue. Yan will be the more talented striker; it’s just how she handles the grappling that will dictate whether she wins this fight or not.

Either way, I don’t see Yan’s durability being tested here. Jandiroba doesn’t mind sitting in top control and just racking up points, as she’s done in 4 of her last five appearances. She also won’t open positions by throwing heavy ground and pound, while Yan has plenty of experience avoiding finishes against elite opponents on top of her.

This one’s going to the judge’s, and -165 isn’t a bad price for UFC props bets tonight when considering that it’s WMMA.

Bet This Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (-165)