UFC 315 Best Prop Picks for This Weekend: Bet on Shevchenko and Saint-Denis vs Prepolec, May 10

Fortunately, it’s that time of the week, and as Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, Valentina Shevchenko, and Manon Fiorot prepare for their championship headliners on Saturday, I’ll be gifting you with my favorite UFC prop picks from the UFC 315 preliminary and main card schedules.

Il est temps!!!

Muhammad vs Della Maddalena is LIVE SATURDAY on @ESPNPlus PPV! #UFC315 pic.twitter.com/Ci0tIkyZ9b

— danawhite (@danawhite) May 8, 2025

Top 2 Prop Bets for UFC 315

1. Valentina Shevchenko to Win by Submission or Decision (+140)

Am I missing something here?

Valentina Shevchenko, one of the greatest women’s mixed martial artists in the sport’s history, will enter UFC 315 as a betting underdog…

I understand that Manon Fiorot has garnered a 7-0 record with sublime striking skills to earn her right as the No.1 contender. Still, she’s also never faced an opponent with the kickboxing expertise and experience of Valentina. Not to mention, the champ, who is 13- 3- 1 in the UFC as a two-time flyweight titlist, has a nasty ground game, thus making her a complete fighter behind consistent five-round, championship experience for the better part of eight years!

Bet on: Shevchenko by Submission or Decision (+140)

Valentina Shevchenko is an underdog this week? pic.twitter.com/aMmOidzCtK

— Super Fan🇮🇪 (@McGregorRousey2) May 8, 2025

The Champ as an Underdog!?

From a kickboxing standpoint, technically speaking, these two ladies could very well match up. Where outside factors such as Fiorot’s size and strength might take the edge, Valentina has the speed and greater kicking abilities at range.

However, let’s not neglect the fact that Valentina has rag-dolled and had her way on the ground with countless, top-level, grappling-based opponents in the past. This is MMA, not kickboxing, and with that, I’m in complete shock that the hometown woman enters this bout, her second ever 5-round title bout, as a betting favorite.

By default, and sensibility for betting on UFC alone, we have to back Shevchenko in this spot. I expect her to handle her own in striking exchanges, but more importantly, when push comes to shove, she can take advantage of her superior grappling skills over the one-dimensional Fiorot.

Regarding prop bets, a play on Shevchenko’s submission or decision outcome at +140 UFC odds feels like a steal. Fiorot has never been knocked out or even been close to getting stopped via KO/TKO, so the obvious paths to victory for the champ will be through her jiu-jitsu attacks or simple point-winning moments.

Shevchenko vs Fiorot Betting Trends

Here are some UFC betting trends to consider:

• Fiorot has gone the distance in 5 of her 7 UFC bouts
• Shevchenko has won by sub/dec in 9 of her 13 UFC wins
• Shevchenko has lost just 3 fights since 2016
• Fiorot has only competed for the UFC since 2021

This picture of Valentina Shevchenko from a Muay Thai fight in 2008 is too cold 🥶 #UFC315

(via @BulletValentina) pic.twitter.com/tPruz7QePI

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) May 4, 2025

2. Benoit Saint-Denis vs Kyle Prepolec Over 1.5 Rounds (+134)

A Frenchman, Benoit Saint-Denis, will go against a Canada’s own, Kyle Prepolec, in the French-Canadian area of the country this Saturday. Unfortunately for the latter, as a short-notice replacement returning to the UFC roster following a 0-2 record from 2019, he’s the biggest underdog on the card, and his chance of victory looks slim.

Now, I won’t brush over Saint-Denis’s fall-off, which has been prominent in UFC news. Following a period where he ran through the competition with five consecutive wins inside the distance, he was completely outclassed by the upper echelon of the division (Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano). However, he’s still a top-ranked fighter, and Prepolec, who isn’t ranked whatsoever, is one of the biggest step-downs in competition we’ve seen in 2025, and we should expect BSD to make that apparent.

Bet on: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec Over 1.5 Rounds (+134)

🇫🇷 Benoît Saint Denis 🆚 Kyle Prepolec 🇨🇦 : LE PREMIER FACE-À-FACE ! #UFC315pic.twitter.com/iHwKn3XwNd

— La Sueur (@LaSueur_off) May 8, 2025

Underrated Toughness vs Under Betting Trends

While this matchup is an easy dub for BSD, I will respect Prepolec’s durability and toughness. Honestly, he isn’t a bad striker at all, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Frenchman take the path of least resistance by opting to wrestle and grapple his way to victory.

Having avoided being stopped by knockout or submission since 2013, and considering he’s in front of a home crowd, I do believe Prepolec can prevent an early finish. Not to mention, the quick and early aggressive style of Saint-Denis has cost him back-to-back losses, so he might be more cautious of this approach when looking to return to the win column.

With 50% of Saint-Denis’ previous 10 MMA bouts going over 1.5 rounds, alongside Prepolec’s noteworthy defensive skills and durability level, as well as the fact that UFC lines give us great plus-money on the over, we’ll take a shot on this total as the price does seem a little off with all things considered.

Bet These MMA Props at BetUS!

UFC 315 How to Watch

• Date and Time: Saturday, May 10, 2025 – 06:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Centre Bell, Quebec, Canada
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
• Co-Main Event Bout: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
• Scheduled Fights: 12

Get the latest UFC news here.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

Question of the Day