UFC 315 Grasso vs Silva Prediction and Picks for May 10: Bet Grasso to Shine as Underdog Again
You don’t need to give us more reasons to bet on Alexa Grasso, especially as the underdog. Our UFC best bets are with the former flyweight champion as she faces the surging Natalia Silva in Montreal. Grasso is still the better-rounded fighter and has the tools to beat the relatively untested Silva. In a bout where the stakes are a potential title shot, we expect the underdog to rise.
“I evolved so much.”
Alexa Grasso (@AlexaGrasso) is eager to get her hand raised against Natalia Silva and has her eyes on the co-main event as well. #UFC315
Fight by Fight Preview ➡️: https://t.co/8a9swogvwB
— UFC News (@UFCNews) May 6, 2025
Best Prop and Round Betting Picks for Grasso vs Silva
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Alexa Grasso (+210) Over Natalia Silva
The UFC betting odds are usually a reflection of the fighters’ past results. As such, Grasso is coming off a disappointing loss where she was thoroughly outclassed, while Silva beat former champion Jessica Andrade to run her unbeaten UFC record to 6-0. We don’t buy it. Grasso is on the right side as an underdog.
Grasso’s only defeat in the division came against Valentina Shevchenko, who is the greatest women’s MMA fighter outside of Amanda Nunes. The Mexican fighter has soundly beaten contenders like Viviane Araujo and Maycee Barber. And she rarely loses against strikers.
Shevchenko upset Grasso using her wrestling. So did Carla Esparza and Tatiana Suarez at strawweight. The last time Grasso lost to a striker was in 2017 in her second UFC fight against the veteran Felice Herrig. But Grasso has otherwise been a profitable UFC betting pick as she is 3-1-1 when lined at pick’em or underdog odds.
Silva has the makings of an elite striker. She’ll look to keep this fight at a distance and pick Grasso apart. But Grasso can also mix it up and bring Silva to a level she’s not comfortable with. The odds should be better than an implied 33.9%. So, bet on Grasso to win.
You can call it quits if she takes your back 😮💨
Catch @AlexaGrasso in action this Saturday on the #UFC315 main card! pic.twitter.com/8x5pDXBs45
— UFC (@ufc) May 6, 2025
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Alexa Grasso Wins by Submission (+1400)
Grasso can win via submission. This shouldn’t be a hot take. Sure, 75% of her victories have come via decision. She only has two finishes in the UFC, but one did come against Shevchenko. The fact remains that Grasso is dangerous on the ground and can make Silva tap if he gets there. At 12/1, this is an underrated UFC prop bet.
Silva has been untested on the ground, namely because she has defended 91% of takedown attempts against her. But it’s also because her opponents haven’t been able to keep her there. Grasso could do that, and our UFC pick hinges on it.
If Grasso engages Silva with just striking, Silva has the edge, as the odds indicate. But we’ll have faith that Grasso and her team have planned enough for her to close the distance (even with the “big” octagon) and pressure Silva. Making $120 on a $10 bet for a submission finish may be our boldest but sharpest UFC prediction today.
Bet on Alexa Grasso By Submission (+1400)
Grasso vs Silva How to Watch
- Fight: Alexa Grasso (16-4-1), Natalia Silva (18-5-1)
- Date/Time: May 10, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Centre Bell, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Grasso vs Silva Live Stream:UFC Fight Pass
Find the latest UFC betting news here.
Question of the Day
How many finishes does Natalia Silva have?
Natalia Silva has 13 finishes out of her 18 victories, two coming in the UFC.
