UFC 315 Parlay Picks for May 10: Bet on Belal Muhammad, Navajo Stirling

The UFC returns to Canadian soil, and residents of the Great White North will be treated to not one but two UFC championship bouts.

More importantly, and as the resident BetUS UFC betting odds expert, I’m back with another edition of ‘The Punching Parlay,’ in an attempt to boost our bankroll ahead of the summer months.

It’s time!!!

FIIIIIIGHT WEEEEEK!!!!!! #UFC315 is LIVE SATURDAY on @espn+ PPV! pic.twitter.com/pusG3cX7Nd

— danawhite (@danawhite) May 5, 2025

UFC 315 Free Parlay Picks

1. Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena: Bet Muhammad (-185) ML

“He’s boring. “This man needs the judges to win.” “Belal is a point-fighter.” “Gosh, he’s annoying.” The criticism around Belal ‘Remember the Name” Muhammad has been consistent throughout his UFC career. But guess what? He knows how to win fights (11-fight unbeaten streak), and love or hate him, his resume to date has been solid. That’s something we can all agree on.

In his first UFC welterweight title defense this weekend, he’ll be fighting the backup. No, I’m not talking about Ian Garry, who’s the stand-in for this main event. I’m talking about Jack Della Maddalena, the original replacement that took the place of an injured, and rightful No.1 contender, Shavkat Rakhmonov.

And look, I have no issues with JDM. He’s a clean striker whose boxing output and knockout potential are a clear path to victory in this stylistic matchup. However, when it comes to being a complete martial artist, he doesn’t have it. Unlike champions of the past who’ve relied on their striking, Maddalena doesn’t stand out as a top-tier competitor capable of steamrolling such a durable and well-diverse Belal.

Bet This Pick: Belal Muhammad Moneyline (-185)

The intensity between Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena 🍿

Welterweight title on the line 🏆 | #UFC315 Saturday, 10 PM ET | ESPN+ PPV pic.twitter.com/oJ4Uzl0o8E

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) May 8, 2025

These UFC Odds Are Crazy

Muhammad has been a betting underdog in six of his last seven UFC appearances. That’s how much people doubt the man. Said doubt has crushed thousands of tickets because he’s riding an 11-fight undefeated streak. Now, as the champion, he’s finally receiving a smidgen of respect by entering UFC 315 as the favorite.

With that said, a -175 moneyline price still feels disrespectful to me. With his wrestling and grappling capabilities, five-round cardio, and a much greater resume than his opponent, he has the strongest game plan to succeed, especially when looking back at JDM’s questionable takedown defense.

Gilbert Burns took Della Maddalena down seven times. We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because he suffered an arm injury in the first round. However, what’s his excuse for getting taken down by Bassil Hafez, and even a low-level Ange Loosa on DWCS (LOL)? No offense, but Belal’s wrestling is level above those men, and for this reason, including other questionable moments, including two split decision wins where JDM could’ve easily lost (Kevin Holland and Hafez). Therefore, give me the champ at this price for our weekend UFC bets, all day ‘frikkin’ long!!!

Muhammad Moneyline Supporting Betting Trends

Here are some UFC betting trends to consider:

• Belal is undefeated in 11 consecutive UFC bouts
• Della Maddalena suffered 7 takedowns last time out
• Belal has managed at least one takedown in 5 of his last 6 bouts

🗣️ Belal Muhammad: “You’re about to see the greatest MMA performance you’ve ever seen in your life.”

🗣️ Jack Della Maddalena: “I’d be pretty embarrassed if [Belal] broke me. He’s never broken anyone.”

🎥 @ufc #UFC315 pic.twitter.com/c36ZgnX4OT

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) May 8, 2025

2. Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan: Bet on Stirling (-310) ML

City Kickboxing in New Zealand has been affiliated with some serious offensive striking standouts. From Israel Adesanya to the more recent talents displayed by Carlos Ulberg and even Alexander Volkanovski. Next up to make his mark is Navajo Stirling, a 27-year-old prospect whose former Muay Thai career has assisted him in an undefeated (6-0) MMA record and four knockouts to date.

Is he on the same level as those aforementioned talents that stem from City Kickboxing? It’s too early to tell. However, what we can expect during this early stage of his UFC tenure is consistent levelling up from fight to fight, and while he didn’t collect a knockout in his UFC debut last December, getting those minutes in was imperative for his experience level, and he’ll now enter as the rightful betting favorite this weekend at UFC 315.

Bet This Pick: Stirling Moneyline (-310)

Navajo Stirling showing off his shot selection in this aggressive sequence. pic.twitter.com/VtGct9vJho

— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) May 6, 2025

UFC Predictions: Passing the Test

With Ivan Erslan as the next test, it’s easy to see why Stirling is -310 on UFC odds, as it’s one he’s more than capable of passing.

Erslan is also a striking-based fighter, but his career success has often involved quick first-round finishes. That said, during situations where the opposition has navigated the striking, his cardio has lacked, and he’s been outclassed.

Navajo Stirling

New Zealand’s next UFC superstar

Fighting this weekend in the preliminaries of#UFC315🇨🇦pic.twitter.com/0sZLsLO1mB

— J (@jrandle_)May 7, 2025

During green-zone striking situations, as the longer, faster, and more polished technician, Stirling will point-fight his way to victory no problem. Should Erslan enter the red zone, his pocket rage will meet a beautiful counter-striking style, and as a result, a knockout loss becomes viable, making the NZ man perfect for our UFC parlay picks tonight.

Bet This UFC Parlay at BetUS

UFC 315 How to Watch

• Date and Time: Saturday, May. 10, 2025 – 06:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Centre Bell, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
• Scheduled Fights: 12
• Main Event Bout: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
• Co-Main Event Bout: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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