UFC 315 Prediction and Odds: Muhammad vs Maddalena Fight Breakdown and Best Bet

I’m not going to sugarcoat it, as the reality of UFC 315 is that we don’t have an absolutely stacked card like we’re accustomed to during pay-per-view events. The good news, however, is that the main event involving welterweight champion Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena makes up for a lacklustre undercard and great UFC odds tonight.

As the resident BetUS UFC expert, it wouldn’t be a complete fight week unless I broke down the main event like a fine wine. So, join me today as I dissect the best UFC bets tonight for Muhammad vs. Maddalena.

Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena face off ahead of their fight this weekend at UFC 315 👀#UFC315 pic.twitter.com/2Lx6JkE2hc

— Scott (@ScottishProbl) May 5, 2025

Muhammad vs Maddalena: The Tale of The Tape

Muhammad vs Maddalena Skillset Breakdown

“Canelo Hands” or Wrestling Savant

When Belal Muhammad referred to his boxing offense as “Canelo hands” in UFC news, we, the MMA community laughed our asses off. However, although a credentialed wrestling background has predominantly assisted his 10-fight win streak and welterweight title win, we watched Belal knock out Sean Brady before trading shots with Leon Edwards to find success in more exchanges than we expected and take the gold home.

Once again, Belal has proclaimed that he will let his hands go, and honestly, we’re not laughing so much now, are we? That said, as the path of least resistance stems from a grounded affair this weekend, we should anticipate “Remember the Name” to utilize his wrestling more often than not, especially versus an opponent in Maddalena who’s struggled with grappling-heavy opponents in the past.

Sometimes idk if Belal Muhammad edits are genuine or ironic, they’re cool though pic.twitter.com/8DWVTfLUpm

— Big Jacket Chiv (@Javranti) May 7, 2025

A Cliché Clash of Styles

After momentarily trading shots with Edwards and a roster of top-tier welterweight talent over the years without defeat, do I believe Belal will be afraid to swing it out with JDM? No, not at all. The fact of the matter is, however, Maddalena’s lone path to victory is via his kickboxing output, thus giving him just one clear game plan for Saturday’s contest.

Time and time again, we’ve watched JDM level up the competition and impress with his hands. He’s an aggressive inside striker who’ll have no problem mixing it up on the outside. The problem lies in his takedown defense, particularly against guys like Gilbert Burns, who, despite losing the fight, managed to land seven takedowns across 15 minutes.

Unlike Burns, Muhammad has an endless gas tank, and we shouldn’t anticipate that he’ll struggle to secure takedowns for 25 minutes straight. He’s also the more experienced five-round fighter, whose glue-like style will smother the challenger, whether in the clinch, against the cage, or from top position.

Belal Muhammad says he isn’t shooting a single takedown and will box with Jack Della Maddalena 😳 #UFC315 pic.twitter.com/IwLm8mzhvX

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) May 5, 2025

Muhammad vs Maddalena Best Bet: Muhammad (-165)

There’s always a world where Maddalena’s power and striking expertise deem the competition unresponsive due to a beatdown to crush UFC predictions fading him. Still, with a chin that’s been solid in 26 of his 27 pro bouts to date, and the perfect counter-style (wrestling) to a challenger like JDM, it’s so difficult to overlook Muhammad from successfully retaining the strap this Saturday in Quebec.

In five straight fights since 2021, Belal has entered as a betting underdog. Unfortunately, we don’t have this luxury for our UFC expert picks this time around. Still, -160 on the moneyline isn’t a bad price whatsoever, as wrestling will triumph over striking this weekend, and I’m all over the Belal moneyline as we’ll certainly not ‘forget his name’ by Saturday night.

Bet on Muhammad Moneyline (-165)

UFC 315 Event Information

• Date & Time: Saturday, May. 10, 2025 – 06:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Centre Bell, Quebec, Canada
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
• Co-Main Event Bout: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
• Moneyline Probability: Muhammad – 61.5% (-160) Maddalena – 42.7% (+)

Get the best odds and UFC props here.

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