UFC 316: Gastelum vs Pyfer Prediction and Picks, 6/7: Over 2.5 is Best Bet

· Jun 06 - 4 minutes read

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Pyfer’s KO power is real but bet on a decision (+150) vs iron-chinned Gastelum
The best UFC 316 bets are on the total to go over 2.5 and a decision prop

Sorry, Mexican fans, Joe Pyfer will not get his comeuppance. The wrestler went on a racist tirade against Mexico following his cancelled fight against Kelvin Gastelum months ago. It’s re-booked, and most bets on UFC have come in his favor. Gastelum is past his prime and is just a mid-card jobber now. Pyfer should win, though the price is steep.

UFC 316: Gastelum vs Pyfer Prediction and Picks, 6/7: Over 2.5 is Best Bet — Joe Pyfer / Brazil Photo Press via AFP

Joe Pyfer sleeps Marc-Andre Barriault in under two minutes 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/iPPERabMDD

— MMA Mania (@mmamania) June 30, 2024

Best Prop and Round Betting Picks for Gastelum vs Pyfer

1. Gastelum vs Pyfer Goes the Distance

Joe Pyfer is arguably the hardest puncher in the middleweight division. Three of his four UFC wins have come via a one-hitter quitter. However, he’ll be hard-pressed to do the same to Gastelum. His best bet is to be patient and to outwork Gastelum over three rounds for a decision win. This makes the total likely to go over the UFC lines.

For all his inconsistencies, Gastelum’s most consistent quality is his durability. He is one stout Mexican that’s never been finished by strikes in his 23-fight UFC career. He’s gone against hard hitters like Jared Cannonier and Tyron Woodley and was not fazed.

Sure, there is a chance Pyfer hands Gastelum his first KO loss. But this fight is also at middleweight, so Gastelum won’t be cutting a lot of weight. He’s also solid defensively and only absorbs 3.48 significant strikes per minute as a southpaw.

The UFC odds tonight are not wrong to have the total over 2.5 rounds. There is still betting value here as more than likely, this fight goes into the third round.

Joe Pyfer is confident he can become the first person to KO Kelvin Gastelum. Can he get it done? 👊👀 #UFCMexicoCity

(via @dannyseguratv) pic.twitter.com/8wbSp1VtY1

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) March 27, 2025

Bet on Gastelum vs Pyfer Over 2.5 Rounds (-145)

2. Pyfer Beats Up Gastelum for a Decision

Pyfer will earn his first decision victory in the octagon. We don’t see him knocking Gastelum out, and he rarely uses submissions enough for us to bet that at +375. The most likely UFC prediction tonight is a methodical win from “Bodybagz.”

The favorite has the rare one-punch KO power and knows it. The flaw with this is that he rarely throws punches. He only lands 3.72 significant strikes per minute at a 41% clip. If he can’t seriously hurt Gastelum with the few punches he throws, it’s unlikely he’ll finish him.

Alternatively, there is a case to be made for Pyfer submitting Gastelum late in the fight after the underdog gasses out. Three of Gastelum’s nine UFC losses have come via submission. A Pyfer victory by Round 3 submission is at 18/1 as a UFC pick. This may be worth a sprinkle and still covers the over in our earlier bet.

But as far as conventional picks, a Pyfer decision win at +150 is the play here. Expect UFC news to show Pyfer winning via scorecards even if he comes this close to finishing Gastelum as the featured bout of UFC 316.

Bet on Joe Pyfer By Decision or Technical Decision (+150)