UFC 316: Pena vs Harrison Prediction and Picks for 6/7: Bet on Submission (+155) in Title Bout

Time to embrace the Kayla Harrison era, everyone. Since she debuted in UFC 300, the two-time Olympic gold medalist has been a lock to fight for the UFC title. Julianna Pena, the two-time champ, is an underdog for a reason. Most bets on UFC are heavily in Harrison’s favor. While her price is lofty, it is justified as we break down this UFC 316 co-main event.

Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison face to face for the first time 🔥#UFC316

pic.twitter.com/eoz97R2XZj

— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) April 11, 2025

Best Prop and Round Betting Picks for Pena vs Harrison

1. Bout Finishes Within Three Rounds

We’re not underestimating Pena when we say that Harrison will finish her before the championship rounds. Yes, Pena did upset and finish Amanda Nunes, who is widely regarded as the greatest female mixed martial artist of all time. But she’s the underdog on the UFC betting lines because she will fight in Harrison’s world: grappling.

Pena is a tough grappler with a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. She has five wins via submission, and her only two in the UFC came against Nunes and former Olympic silver medalist Sara McMann. But Harrison is a different animal on the ground.

For one, Harrison is a 155-pound fighter. It’s amazing she’s able to cut to 135 pounds, but she proved she can do it and not lose a beat. There is concern that she will gas late in the fight due to the immense weight cut. But she may not even need those last 10 minutes.

Pena’s only edge here is her toughness and endurance. But skill-wise, Harrison will make her look like an amateur. We can take Harrison to win for our UFC parlay picks tonight. But as far as a straight UFC expert pick, bet the total to go under 4.5 rounds as Harrison will submit Pena.

Allow me to introduce myself 🗣@KaylaH gets the submission victory in round 2! #UFC300 pic.twitter.com/iqHsNgpl7w

— UFC (@ufc) April 14, 2024

Bet on Pena vs Harrison Under 4.5 Rounds (-190)

2. Harrison Taps Pena

While Pena is incredibly durable (as her five-round beating to Nunes in the rematch exposed), she’s also prone to mistakes. How else does she get submitted by Germaine de Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko? Both are primarily kickboxers, and in de Randamie’s case, it was her first and only career submission victory.

Harrison has seven career submissions and a 72.2% finish-to-win ratio. Three of her last four fights went the distance, though these fighters she failed to finish are notably difficult to finish. Ketlen Vieira and Aspen Ladd have never been submitted. Larissa Pacheco, who is the only fighter to beat Harrison, has not lost to anyone outside Harrison since leaving the UFC in 2018.

We’ll give Pena her flowers and say she’ll be one of Harrison’s hardest opponents. But late on Saturday, it will be Harrison making the UFC news with a statement win. Bet her to win by sub at +175 on the UFC odds tonight. It may be the best line if you’re on the American’s side.

Bet on Kayla Harrison By Submission (+155)

Pena vs Harrison How to Watch

• Matchup: Julianna Pena (C) (13-5-0), Kayla Harrison (18-1-0)
• Date/Time: Saturday, June 7, 10:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
• Pena vs Harrison Live Stream: Fubo.tv

Question Of The Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets