UFC 316 Perfect Prop Picks for This Weekend

Another week of octagon violence awaits, but those Fight Night pay-per-view festivities aren’t the same without some UFC odds and proposition bets to boost the bankroll.

Fear not; your resident UFC expert is back, and I’m locked and loaded with my best UFC prop bets on this weekend’s stacked UFC 316 fight card, headlined by a bantamweight title rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley.

It’s time!!!!

Fight week hits different in Jersey. 😤 #UFC316

| #VisitNJ | @Visit_NJ | @UFC | pic.twitter.com/rQ76v0xKnC

— Prudential Center (@PruCenter) June 3, 2025

Top 2 UFC 316 Prop Picks This Weekend

1. Azamat Murzakanov vs Brendson Ribeiro: Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)

Following two straight defeats, Brenson Ribeiro bounced back with consecutive wins over Caio Machado and Diyar Nurgozhay, so, on paper, he isn’t doing too badly. The problem is, those wins are nothing to run home about, and now, he’s facing an undefeated Russian that will test his chin like it’s been tested multiple times in the past.

With a 14-0, unblemished pro record, Azamat Murzakanov has flourished under the UFC banner with four straight wins, three of which ended by knockout. Despite being 36, the UFC was willing to give him a chance, and he’s lived up to the hype with sheer violence inside the octagon.

Bet on Murzakanov vs Ribeiro Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)

Murzakanov is in the UFC just to starch someone every so often.

Built like a middleweight, but he hits like a heavyweight 🥊 pic.twitter.com/ZXTcXR6ifk

— Liam Picks Fights (@LiamPicksFights) June 2, 2025

Finding Value

Here’s the thing: with UFC fight odds showing a -590 moneyline price and high knockout potential against an opponent whose durability is questionable, finding ways to wager on Murzakanov and land on some value isn’t easy.

Instead of backing the Russian to win by knockout, where Vegas is robbing us blind, backing the underdog, in my opinion, is the only way to indirectly support his efforts to finish this fight.

Let’s keep it real, Ribeiro does have a well-rounded skill set, but he isn’t getting this fight to the ground, and wherever Murzakanov wants this fight, he’ll have it. Whenever Ribeiro cannot dictate the pace, he crumbles, and with the top game and sheer force of Murzakanov’s strikes, it won’t take long for the Brazilian to surrender and cash out our UFC picks tonight.

Murzakanov vs Ribeiro Betting Trends

• 5 of Ribeiro’s 7 pro MMA losses were by KO/TKO or submission
• Murzakanov is undefeated
• 3 of Ribeiro’s previous 4 losses were in round 1
• Murzakanov has finished 11 of his 14 pro career wins inside the distance

Azamat Murzakanov (4-0 UFC; 3KOs) earned a contract by smashing Matheus Scheffel on DWCS in 2021.

He has only competed 4 times in the nearly 4 years since, winning all 4 fights & stopping 3 men with strikes pic.twitter.com/u7jhfDurly

— Liam Picks Fights (@LiamPicksFights) June 2, 2025

2. Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Heavyweight competitors fighting on the prelims? Someone check on Dana White, because we know he loves to put his top fighters at the top of fight cards, no matter how good or bad they might be.

Fortunately for us, Serghei Spivac (#7) and Waldo Cortes-Acosta (#12) aren’t just a pair of lackluster, out-of-shape heavyweights, and they’re both pretty decent in their own right.

For Spivac, he’s approaching UFC veteran territory with 13 fights for the promotion, and with an average of 4.56 takedowns, we know where he likes to finish food.

Opposite him will be “Salsa Boy,” who, akin to the nickname, has enjoyed peppering his opponents with the pro boxing experience he entered MMA with.

Bet on Spivac vs Cortes-Acosta Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

SERGHEI SPIVAC SUBMITS LEWIS IN ROUND 1 🗜 #UFCVegas68 pic.twitter.com/qSlnn4mnBv

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) February 5, 2023

Heavyweight Slugfest UFC Predictions

For me, this fight presents two outcomes: Spivac lands the takedowns and wraps up a submission, or Waldo’s takedown defense, which has been notably solid to date, holds up, and forces Spivac into a striking battle he’s going to lose.

I want to believe in Waldo’s takedown defense, but the level of competition he’s faced has been very low. Rogerio de Lima, the most effective wrestler/grappler he’s fought to date, found success in this area, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the BJJ-slick Spivac were able to finish this on the ground.

Either way, and while Waldo hasn’t exactly been a known finisher in the UFC, I don’t envision this one going the distance. Spivac’s chin doesn’t take much to crumble, and Waldo will be out of his depth on the ground, as this striker versus grappler matchup shouldn’t take much to hit the under 2.5 rounds.

Spivac vs Cortes-Acosta Betting Trends:

• Spivac has seen under 2.5 rounds in 7 consecutive UFC bouts
• Cortes-Acosta finished his last fight in the second round
• Spivac has gone the distance in just 3 of his 22 pro career fights

Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Ryan Spann | FINISH

On March 15, 2025, at the UFC APEX, Waldo Cortes Acosta put his ranking on the line against Ryan Spann. In the final seconds of Round 2, Cortes Acosta landed heavy ground-and-pound. Spann made it back to his feet, but Cortes… pic.twitter.com/zKYTkst6Bu

— MMAVisualized (@MMAVisualized) April 6, 2025

Our Favorite Props and UFC Expert Picks

• Murzakanov/Ribeiro Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)
• Spivac/Cortes-Acosta Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

UFC 316 How

• Date and Time: Saturday, June 7, 2025 – 06:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley II
• Co-Main Event Bout: Juliana Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
• Scheduled Fights: 13
• Biggest UFC 316 Betting Favorite: Kayla Harrison @ -750
• Biggest UFC 316 Betting Underdog: Juliana Pena @ +505

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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