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UFC Austin Deep Dive: UFC Predictions for Dariush vs Tsarukyan

In the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return to Texas, top-10 lightweight rankings are for grabs in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your UFC betting needs.

The ultra-talented and nine-year UFC vet Beneil Dariush puts his #3 ranking to the test versus the fast-rising and formidable skillset of Arman Tsarukyan.

UFC Austin Deep Dive: UFC Predictions for Dariush vs Tsarukyan
UFC Austin Deep Dive: UFC Predictions for Dariush vs Tsarukyan

The stage is set, and the betting lines are live, so let’s waste no time and jump straight into our deep dive into the UFC Austin main event.

UFC Austin: Fighter Previews

Beneil “Benny” Dariush

Dariush will attempt to rebound from his first-round TKO defeat at UFC 289 in Canada at the hands of former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. The Iranian-American combatant had amassed eight consecutive victories prior to that loss and, as a third-ranked lightweight, continues to be a formidable contender despite what critics and UFC betting odds suggest.

Do you know something that grinds my gears? It is when a fighter of Dariush’s caliber loses one fight, and the entire planet automatically converts into disbelievers. Recency bias is a bit*h, and before the Oliveira loss, many considered Dariush as the man who could defeat Islam Makhachev.

But here we are, claiming that age and durability issues will send Dariush on a bad streak, and the supporting evidence is that he lost to one of the best lightweight competitors on the planet. Please don’t be so naive because he’s only 34 and boasts a world of experience fighting at this level compared to his weekend opponent.

  • Dariush has never lost on the judge’s scorecards
  • Dariush has lost via KO/TKO or submission in just 1 of his previous 9 bouts.
  • Dariush has lost just 1 of his 22 UFC bouts as a betting underdog

 

UFC Pick: Dariush Moneyline Odds (+235)

Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan

Eighth-ranked Tsarukyan is seeking his third consecutive victory following back-to-back wins over Damir Ismagulov (Unanimous Decision) and a third-round technical knockout (Joaquim Silva) in December 2022 and June of this year, respectively.

Tsarukyan, who is 27 years old, is finally receiving an opponent with an established name. A victory over a seasoned and perennial contender such as Dariush, who is a well-respected veteran, would place Tsarukyan in an advantageous position among the top 155-pound contenders.

Do I believe the Armenian representative is an ultra-difficult challenge for Dariush? Yes, but do I agree with the wide betting moneyline? No, I don’t. Again, recency bias can work wonders for those seeking plus-money value.

  • Tsarukyan has never been stopped inside the distance as a UFC competitor
  • Tsarukyan owns an 80% UFC win rate

 

UFC Pick: Tsarukyan Moneyline Odds (-310)

Dariush vs Tsarukyan: The Statistics

Beneil Dariush Arman Tsarukyan
Country Assyria Armenia
Age 34 27
Pro Record (Win/Loss) 22-5-1 20-3-0
KO/Submission 5 KOs, 8 Submissions 8 KOs, 5 Submissions
Height 5’10” 5’7”
Reach 72.0” 72.0”
Avg Fight Time 09:16 13:37
Knockdown Avg (15 min) 0.52 0.24
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min 3.79 3.82
Takedown Avg (15 min) 1.91 3.43
Win/Loss (Last 5) L/W/W/W/W W/W/L/W/W

 

UFC Austin: Main Event Breakdown & Analysis

Dariush Fight Style & How Can Dariush Defeat Tsarukyan

A recurring consensus is that Dariush looks slow and old, but this hasn’t prevented his masterful MMA skillset from winning eight of his last nine elite-level bouts. Will he enter Saturday with athletic disadvantages? Sure, but he owns a BJJ and wrestling background that can prevent Tsarukyan’s most reliable attribute.

Dariush’s hands are underrated, and from a southpaw stance, he often utilizes the middle kick to nullify orthodox opponents alongside precise combinations. His primary concern will be the takedowns, but returning to his feet won’t be an issue, and in a technical striking dual, I undoubtedly believe he’s the greater striker of the two.

Over the course of 25 minutes, we could witness a lot of standing clinch positions and striking exchanges that I wholeheartedly anticipate favoring Benny’s fight intelligence.

The Best path to victory for Dariush: Utilize his veteran mentality and out-smart the youngster in the later rounds.

Tsarukyan Fight Style & How Can Tsarukyan Defeat Dariush

With five rounds to go to work, there’s no denying that Arman will land a takedown. However, without an early stoppage, he’ll need to consistently deliver a strong grappling offensive and an almost perfect performance.

With a speed advantage and powerful ground and pound, I would believe the memo to overcome Dariush should revolve around an ‘early and often’ mentality, as the longer game will favor the veteran mentality of the Las Vegas UFC odds underdog.

The Best path to victory for Tsarukyan: Early takedowns with heavy top control that lead to a TKO ground-and-pound stoppage.

Best UFC Austin Betting Pick: Over 3 ½ Rounds (-130)

The Dec. 2 UFC odds predictions aren’t showing value on the Tsarukyan side, as the risk of denting our bankroll doesn’t match the moneyline pricing that’s presented.

Dariush’s ability to defend takedowns and scramble with the likes of Mateusz Gamrot gives me enough confidence for him to achieve similar results versus Tsarukyan. With that said, I do believe the Armenian is the rightful favorite; it’s just unplayable beyond a -170 price range, in my opinion.

I wouldn’t oppose a sprinkle on Dariush at +235 because it’s an incredibly winnable fight for him. However, I believe the safer play lies in backing the over 3 ½ rounds, with the potential of seeing these two talented grapplers drain the clock, either in standing clinched or grounded positions.

UFC Austin Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, Dec. 02, 2023 – 04:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Moody Center, Austin, TX
  • Beneil Dariush vs Arman TsarukyanLive Stream: UFC Fight Pass
  • Main Event Bout: Beneil Dariush vs Arman Tsarukyan

 

 

Dariush vs Tsarukyan Betting Odds

 

Questions Of The Day

What is the most likely round for Dariush to win in?


Tsarukyan has displayed a noteworthy chin and has never been stopped inside the distance as a UFC competitor, thus making a Dariush win by decision the most likely winning outcome for the Iranian-American fan favorite.

What are some of the best props for the fight?


Betting on this fight to go the distance will display plus-money value by fight night, and I believe the value of such a proposition is excellent when you consider the long list of fights going to decisions that both Dariush and Tsarukyan have been involved with.

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