UFC Baku Betting Breakdown: Hill vs Rountree Jr. Prediction, Picks and Odds

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• In this evenly matched fight, bet on Hill to win in Baku (-110).
• Be sure to check Hill vs Rountree Jr. stats before you bet.

We’ve enjoyed a pretty sweet run of non-PPV events with decent scheduling of late, and that doesn’t change when Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. slug it out in the main event of UFC Baku this weekend alongside a pretty stacked lineup!

Naturally, I’m back to dissect Saturday’s top of the card scrap, and although it’ll be the UFC’s first time in Azerbaijan, this isn’t our first rodeo attacking the sportsbook UFC odds, so join me as I present to you my analysis and best bets for Hill vs Rountree!

A performance he’ll never forget 😮‍💨@JamahalH looks to dominate once again at #UFCBaku! pic.twitter.com/ZFVd6uAp6X

— UFC (@ufc) June 19, 2025

Hill vs Rountree Jr. The Tale of The Tape

Inside the Octagon: Hill vs Rountree Jr. Skillset Breakdown

Alex Pereira’s Sons Battle One Another

Aww, don’t you think it’s cute how Alex Pereira’s sons are receiving a main event spotlight in UFC news today to kill their losing streaks? As you probably know, both men were flatlined by Pereira in their respective title opportunities, allowing us to cash in on KO UFC props; however, the tale of those bouts told a polar opposite story… Jamahal Hill couldn’t last a round, while Khalil Rountree Jr. went to war before being finished in the fourth.

So, does that mean we should automatically pick Rountree by default? Certainly not!

Styles make fights, and although Rountree unquestionably put on a greater performance in his clash with Pereira, he was a punching bag for most of that fight, as defensive vulnerabilities are undoubtedly a red flag that should catch everyone’s attention moving forward.

Kicks? Rarely, knees? Hardly, takedowns? Never. ‘Sweet Dreams’ Hill is basic, and one could argue he’s the lesser talented martial artist regarding all-around skill set. However, he’s a legitimate puncher with serious power, and when it comes to holding a defensive advantage, you have to side with him in this bout.

Rountree stems from a Muay Thai background, and that’s evident when we see him break the clinch and throw elbows, and also utilize plenty of leg kicks in his combinations. Unfortunately for him, his offense isn’t matched with good defense, and that stiff Muay Thai stance might be the perfect target for the powerful and dangerous boxer in Hill.

JAMAHAL HILL’S REACTION AFTER PEREIRA DEFEATED ROUNTREE 👀 #UFC307 pic.twitter.com/ajJefupVdg

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) October 6, 2024

Expect a Stand-Up War and Potential Knockout!

If there’s one guarantee in this fight, it’s that takedowns will be non-existent. Both men love to stand and bang, and unless someone is dropped via strikes and pounced on, we’re going to watch these savages kick and punch each other for as long as it lasts.

I’ll reiterate the defensive concerns I have for Rountree, because ultimately, that’s what I believe will separate the winner from the loser come Saturday night. While the rudimentary style of Hill is apparent, he’s definitely the higher volume striker of the two, and with Rountree, the guy just gets hit too much for me to respect his chances of victory and as a valid option for UFC predictions today.

As a side note, it’s worth mentioning the competition levels; Outside of Pereira and a washed-up Anthony Smith, Rountree’s octagon successes were against 205lb cans, while Hill has mainly fought against the cream of the crop.

This angle of Alex Pereira walking down Khalil Rountree is brutal pic.twitter.com/p2HxPNnJlw

— MMA Marcus 🇺🇸 (@mmamarcuss) October 7, 2024

Hill vs Rountree Jr. Betting Trends

• 67% of Hill’s UFC victories were by KO/TKO
• Rountree’s lone top-15 ranked win came against Anthony Smith
• Rountree has zero wins over the current top-15-ranked light heavyweights
• 4 of Rountree’s 6 UFC losses were inside the distance

Best Bet for Hill vs Rountree Jr.: Hill ML (-110)

Listen, this fight is lined closely and rightfully so. It could result in a complete car crash of a fight because we have two strikers who’re going to attempt to take each other’s heads off from the opening round.

That said, in a five-round fight, I don’t like Rountree’s gas tank, his defensive flaws, size disadvantage, and lack of success versus top-ranked opponents. For this reason, backing Hill at -110 makes complete sense from a betting perspective in our best UFC picks.

Bet on Hill ML (-110)

UFC Baku How To Watch

• Date/Time: Saturday, June. 21, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Baku, Azerbaijan
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
• Co-Main Event Bout: Fiziev vs Bahamondes
• Moneyline Probability: Hill – 50% (-110) Rountree Jr. – 50% (-110)

UFC FAQ

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.