Betting Preview
In the next UFC fight night event, Kevin Holland had to withdraw from the main event due to a positive COVID-19 test. Jack Hermansson is left to face Marvin Vettori, who steps in on short notice in the main event for an exciting middleweight battle that is worth your online betting.
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- Date: Saturday, Dec. 5, 6 pm
- Venue: UFC Apex
- Watch on: ESPN 2
Main Event Breakdown
Coming in as the fourth-best fighter in the middleweight division, Jack “The Joker” Hermansson (21-5-0) is returning to action after a first-round submission victory back in July when he was up against Kelvin Gastelum. He looked like he is still in top form in that fight.
Looking into his fighting resume, it reveals that he has 11 wins by knockout, six by submission, and four by decision. In his total of 21 victories, he has compiled 10 first-round finishes that also put together efforts of knockouts and submissions.
He has been able to strike with an accuracy of 48 percent and has a grappling accuracy of 35 percent. He delivers roughly 5.08 significant strikes a minute while taking on 2.52.
You could not ask for a better ratio here, as he lands close to over two and a half significant strikes before an opponent lands one on him.
Hermansson typically defends against takedowns at 73 percent and defends against significant strikes with a defense of 56 percent. He also has been able to average 2.19 takedowns and 0.90 submissions every 15 minutes of action.
Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori (15-4-1), the 13th-ranked fighter in the middleweight division, is making some UFC news by stepping in on short notice for this matchup. Vettori has some momentum with a three-fight winning streak.
Looking at his fighting resume, it reveals that he has two wins by knockout, nine by submission, and four by decision. Looking deeper into his first-round finishes, he also has 11 of his fights that turned into first-round finishes, which includes both knockouts and submissions.
Vettori has been able to strike with an accuracy of 43 percent and has a grappling accuracy of 47 percent. He delivers 4.33 significant strikes a minute and takes on 2.76. This is another example of a great significant strike ratio, which will continue to benefit him.
Vettori has been able to defend against takedowns at a defense of 80 percent and defend against significant strikes with a defense of 67 percent. He also has been able to average 1.67 takedowns and 0.90 submissions every 15 minutes of action.
Odds For This Event
BetUS UFC odds are still updating for this event. Hermansson originally opened as a -250 favorite against Holland but is appearing as a +105 underdog as the market moves for his new matchup.
- Hermansson +105
- Vettori -135
* odds are subject to change
Winner of Main Event
Hermansson was expected to dismantle Holland in the previous matchup. However, this has greatly changed, so the odds will be very close.
Vettori has proven to be a high-pressure striker with a strong ground game. He put up an excellent showing against Israel Adesanya a few years ago that proved he can fight anyone. Most of his damage comes from his ability to close out fights on the ground.
We’re not sure Hermansson will allow that to happen, though. He is the more experienced fighter and arguably the better grappler.
Both of these fighters will be able to take this fight the distance. It is just a matter of who performs better. It is interesting that the UFC betting odds market sees Hermansson as an underdog.
Pick: Hermansson wins via decision.
