UFC Fight Night Machado Garry vs Prates Prediction and Picks, April 26: Bet Over 3.5 Rounds

We were starved of elite-level UFC action last weekend. Still, with the Easter break behind us, it’s time to dive right back into the octagon as Dana White and Co. host an epic welterweight headliner in Kansas City, Missouri, with a stacked line-up of fights to pump our adrenaline.

Two of the welterweight division’s finest, Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates, present a Fight Night main event far from lacklustre in a year where underwhelming matchmaking has been at the forefront. More importantly, however, what UFC odds are you wagering on?

With two fighters at the top of their game going head-to-head, betting on the UFC main event this weekend might feel daunting. But fear not, as the BetUS resident MMA expert, I will steer you towards bankroll profits and share my favorite Garry vs. Prates UFC predictions today!

BACK and better than ever 😤

It’s officially #UFCKansasCity Fight Week!

[ B2YB @VeChainOfficial ] pic.twitter.com/CWLkQuOetS

— UFC (@ufc) April 21, 2025

Garry vs Prates: The Tale of The Tape

Inside the Octagon: Garry vs Prates Skillset Breakdown and Betting Preview

• Ian ‘The Future’ Machado Garry

Ireland’s next best hope at UFC gold after Conor McGregor is undoubtedly Ian Machado Garry. The always confident Irishman has garnered an 8-1 UFC record, including wins over top-ranked foes such as Michael Page, Geoff Neal, and Neil Magny, but unfortunately, he fell short in a title elimination bout versus the formidable Shavkat Rakhmanov last time out.

Here’s the thing… Garry is just 27 years old and has already proven his worth versus some of the division’s best. And while he suffered defeat to Shavkat, he still made a great account of himself and it’s easy to suggest that he’s likely a future title contender with Now, he does own one of those personalities where you either love or hate him, but don’t let the outside noise distract you from his in-cage talents.

The Future is always slept on because people don’t like it. However, he’s a smart fighter and has evolved into a competitor who will put his fight intelligence first instead of hunting for a finish or looking for a scrap. With a long frame and precise striking at range, he’s a great point fighter who can also tie up in a clinch and throw some wrestling in for good measure.

Garry’s untested chin, experience of going the distance, and outside kickboxing will be a huge test for Prates this week. And if he doesn’t get the nod, I do believe he’ll be the first fighter to take the Brazilian beyond two rounds, and that’ll be our first approach on the UFC Vegas odds.

Ending it EARLY in the debut 👏@IanGarryMMA is looking for that same feeling again this weekend! 👊

[ #UFCKansasCity | SAT LIVE 9pmET on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/TnxuWK1lik

— UFC (@ufc) April 23, 2025

• Carlos ‘The Nightmare’ Prates

He’s a Fighting Nerd who smokes cigarettes, chugs whiskey, and knocks people out for UFC news. What isn’t there to love about Carlos Prates?

I’ll speak for the wider audience when I state that most people want Prates’ incredible UFC run to continue this weekend in Missouri, as he’ll be looking for his fifth straight knockout and UFC win. However, we haven’t seen enough from The Nightmare to suggest he can haunt the dreams of those inside the top-10 welterweight rankings.

As a confident striker with obvious finishing power, who’s finished 10 consecutive MMA bouts by KO/TKO, we know his path to victory. But again, we don’t know his weaknesses because he’s never been tested. Can he wrestle for 25 minutes? Does his cardio hold up beyond two rounds? How does he look off his back?

Of course, the knockout on UFC live betting odds will be approached by many; he’s already proved his point in that department, but his sample size against elite competitors is just too limited to risk our bankroll right now, especially with such a fast push into the deep waters of welterweight.

Bet This Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-105)

Walking off after that KO 😤

2023 DWCS Alum Carlos Prates is on the hunt for another knockout this weekend at #UFCKansasCity 👀

[ LIVE SAT 9pmET on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/GwYAmu9cnH

— UFC (@ufc) April 23, 2025

Garry vs Prates Betting Trends

• Prates is 4-0 in the UFC with four consecutive knockout wins
• Prates hasn’t gone the distance in a pro-MMA bout since 2019
• Garry hasn’t been finished in 16 pro-MMA bouts
• Garry has gone the distance in 6 of his 9 UFC bouts
• Garry has won by decision in 3 of his previous 4 UFC bouts

UFC Kansas City: Machado Garry Best Bet to Win

Watching Garry out-smart, out-strike, or out-wrestle ‘Venom’ Page, Neal, and Magny, to then give Shavkat the toughest fight of his career, gives me confidence that he can achieve similar success against an inexperienced Prates, who, for all we know, could have an absolute mess of a gas tank beyond the second round.

For my UFC picks, I expect the Irishman to utilize his length, remain on the outside, be cautious and elusive of trading recklessly, frustrate Prates into an outside kickboxing game, mix up some cage control and/or takedowns, and lead himself back into the win column with a unanimous decision victory.

Bet This Pick: Ian Machado Garry Moneyline (-130)

Who’s fighting on the UFC Kansas City main card?

• Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates [UFC Welterweight Bout]
• Anthony Smith vs Mingyang Zhang [UFC Light Heavyweight Bout]
• Giga Chikadze vs David Onama [UFC Featherweight Bout]
• Michael Pereira vs Abus Magomedov [UFC Middleweight Bout]
• Randy Brown vs Nicolas Dalby [UFC Welterweight Bout]
• Ikram Aliskerov vs Andre Muniz [UFC Middleweight Bout]

UFC Kansas City How To Watch

• Date/Time: Saturday, April 26, 2025 – 06:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri, USA
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates
• Co-Main Event Bout: Anthony Smith vs Mingyang Zhang

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.