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UFC Fight Night: Odds and Betting Preview | Moreno vs Royval 2

In the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s highly anticipated return to Mexico City, the flyweight division takes center stage in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all the best UFC bets tonight.

Brandon Moreno, Mexico’s beloved former flyweight champion, makes his first return to the octagon without the title. He goes head-to-head with an entertaining top-ranked opponent in Brandon Royval.

UFC Fight Night: Odds and Betting Preview | Moreno vs Royval 2
UFC Fight Night: Odds and Betting Preview | Moreno vs Royval 2

The stage is set, and the betting lines are live, so let’s waste no time and jump straight into our deep dive into the UFC Mexico City main event.

UFC Mexico City Information

  • Date and Time: Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024 – 07:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico
  • Moreno vs Royval Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
  • Main Event Bout: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval II
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez
  • Moneyline Probability: Moreno – 2.4% (-290) Royval – 8% (+230)


Moreno vs Royval 2 Betting Odds

UFC Mexico City: Fighter Previews

Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno

Win or lose this weekend, Brandon Moreno has already etched his name in MMA history as one of the most talented and hard-working flyweights. A UFC record of 9-4-2 doesn’t tell the entire story, and a legendary four-fight feud with Deiveson Figueiredo involved two championship wins and cemented his position in the division’s upper echelon.

Moreno lost an ultra-tight split decision to Alexandre Pantoja last time out, and a significant win in Mexico City will not only cause the hometown crowd to go wild but also force the UFC’s hand in giving the favorite his deserved rematch with a chance at becoming a three-time flyweight champ.

We like Moreno for our UFC picks this weekend.

  • Moreno has never lost via submission or KO/TKO
  • Moreno’s only losses since 2018 were against former or current flyweight champs

Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval

Royval is the type of fighter expected to collect a Fight of the Night award every time he turns up. However, a passion for mayhem has left him vulnerable in the past, which is why his record displays three wins and three losses in his six most recent contests.

After losing a unanimous decision and his second overall loss to the current champ Pantoja, finding a path to title contention won’t be easy, and this is why a stoppage win this weekend will be imperative for the American who’ll additionally have to achieve the unlikely in hostile territory.



  • Two of Royval’s three UFC losses were by KO/TKO and submission
  • Royval is 3-3 in his six most recent UFC bouts
  • Royval lost to Moreno in 2020

Moreno vs Royval II: Tale of The Tape

Brandon Royval
Pro Record (Win/Loss)
5 KOs, 11 Submissions
4 KOs, 9 Submissions
Avg Fight Time
Knockdown Avg (15 min)
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min
Takedown Avg (15 min)
Win/Loss (Last 5)

UFC Mexico City: Main Event Breakdown and Analysis

Moreno fight style and how can Moreno defeat Royval

It could be argued that Moreno has two of the best attributes for overcoming Royval’s wild style: durability and sound defense. With the assistance of fighting at elevation in Mexico, this alone should give the former champion a huge upside in our sportsbook heading into Saturday’s main event.

Grappling, BJJ, and striking credentials all check out for Moreno. Naturally, he’s going to expect the early onslaught from Royval, which has been common throughout the American’s career; however, with the expected preparation, rounds three and beyond should heavily side with the hometown favorite as it’ll be his mistakes, not skill level, that can cost him this fight.

The Best path to victory for Moreno: Weather the storm before finishing the fight via submission in the later rounds.

Royval fight style and how can Royval defeat Moreno

Royal, 5-3 (UFC), has been a pleasure to watch thus far, and more often than not, we’re going to watch him hunt for stoppage wins early and often, particularly in grounded situations where he’s excelled at snatching the neck of his opponents and forcing them to tap.

It’s an opponent he’s familiar with, but the first meeting doesn’t give us much tape to work with. However, given the short-notice replacement circumstances, I don’t envision Royval planning for the long game in this bout, and this suits him perfectly, unlike a five-round war he witnessed him partake in versus Pantoja last time out.

The Best path to victory for Royval: Go hard early, find a neck, and put Moreno out ASAP.

Moreno vs Royval Prediction:

UFC Mexico City Best Bet: Moreno Moneyline (-290)

Proposition odds via BetUS, at the time of writing, are unavailable. For that reason, the Moreno moneyline is the play; however, I do expect the Mexican to win this fight by KO/TKO or submission before the 25-minute time limit is up.

That said, the money line Las Vegas odds are a safe play, in my opinion. His scrambling ability and solid defensive skills have allowed him to avoid defeat by submission or KO/TKO in all 30 pro-MMA bouts to date. And to be brutally honest, Royval won’t have the cardio (At elevation) or the technical abilities to out-point the hometown favorite on home soil, or anywhere for that matter!

UFC Mexico City Main Event: The Crystal Ball Predictions

In this elite flyweight matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that Moreno will outmaneuver and out-skill Royval behind his jab in the early stages of the fight, but eventually, cardio will truly be king as the Mexican crowd roars in unison when their beloved fighter wins via rear naked choke in round three.

Best UFC Odds Tonight from a Moreno Round 3 Submission:




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